CW: Woefully Rated 'Nikita' Is Likely To Be Renewed; Wait, WHAT??!!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Gossip Girl final season 0.49
90210 :| :| :| 0.62
Emily Owens, M.D. :| :| :| 0.62
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.74
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.17
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

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Nikita premiered with a "look away" bad 0.3 adults 18-49 rating for its third season. However, when the CW renewed the already poorly rated Nikita for a third season last spring, co-owner Warner Brothers (that produces Nikita) put a stake in the ground that should get it a fourth season to reach 88 episodes for stripped syndication. The other co-owner of the CW, CBS, has done this before with their low rated dramas (most recently, The Good Wife), and I predict will do it again (Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0).

I'm not going to guarantee Nikita will air during the broadcast season, perhaps the CW will do with it as they have America's Next Top Model and push it off to a mostly or all summer schedule, but those 88 episodes are going to get made, last spring's renewal all but guarantees it.

Emily Owens, MD premiere ratings were woeful too, and it'll probably be in the headline next week.

Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, I assume 90210 will be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings. They could certainly change their tune and cancel it though if schedule time next season gets tight.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Jamie

    @hammard

    I doubt it makes a difference. The shows that replace 9O21O and BATB could be by CBS studios then it makes no change.

    SPM and Bondoel should just bond and be friends.

  • Jamie

    @#TV1

    Top Model is already saved for the summer… Which means they have to either have a repeat slot or keep ALL their fall dramas for the remainder of the season.

    Unless The Selection is still going…

  • herpderp

    Oh, and fyi, Jackson, Mississippi just lost it’s CW affiliate to Christian programming. This leaves that market without the CW.

    http://www.vcstar.com/news/2012/oct/23/bankrupt-broadcaster-sells-mississippi-tv/

  • agnes

    @hammard

    They always balances out. Most of the CBS dramas get cut and then they’ll add CBS to co produce an existing WB show to balance out the figure. Even if it doesn’t add up, it’ll add up via other stuff like reality shows and what not.

  • GG

    lol pathetic. The show sucks ass. FLOPITA.

    And Sid, refrain yourself from commenting to this. I know you’re like the only Nikita fan on this site.

  • agnes

    @michael

    its all over the internet. Just google it. Last year Nikita was saved from cancellation because its a big international seller.

  • Mayorofsmpleton

    Didn’t save Veronica Mars in 2007 and that was coming off their highest rated season and ratings not far from the other CW shows averaging about (1.0 18-49 vs 1.3)

    That was also a WB production with 64 episodes by season’s end. WB tried everything to get it picked up. Even paying $250,000 to produce a 15 minute “pilot” for a rebooted version.

    If CW holds at a .8-.9 average and Nikita begins hitting .2-.3 I wouldn’t be surprised to see it canceled.

  • Michael

    @Agnes, I’m not seeing statistics that prove these claims, though. I read about it all the time from fans, but they never provide sources. It doesn’t matter, anyways…

  • pkk

    they should have kept The Secret Circle.

  • tv#1

    @ Jamie

    The Selection is still in development. If it does get picked up it won’t be ready to air until Fall 2013. I really hope it does get picked up though.

  • Tony ^_^

    Maybe “Nikita” will stay on the air and air all its episodes. But is the show even making any money?

    Yes, people here comment about how well it does internationally, but what about here in the United States? Would advertisers really want to waste their money on a show that barely gets a 0.3?

    And if it does make it to syndication, there is no guarantee that it will do well or that stations will be wasting money to buy Syndication Rights.

    Not a “Nikita” hater, but just stating what I think…

  • Sid

    “lol pathetic. The show sucks ass. FLOPITA.

    And Sid, refrain yourself from commenting to this. I know you’re like the only Nikita fan on this site.”

    But if I don’t comment, who’s going to tell you that you need psychiatric evaluation ASAP? Your behavior is very disturbing and I’d seek help before you cause harm to yourself or to someone else. ;)

  • Mark Wilkins

    I’m surprised SPN, Arrow, and TVD haven’t been renewed yet seeing those ratings. IMO Arrow and SPN are the best shows on the CW right now.

  • herpderp

    Part of the reason why the new Nikita episodes are standalone missions is to draw in new viewers and be more syndication-friendly.

    Still, finding a new audience on Fridays isn’t going to happen. CW should pull GG and replace it with Nikita, and burn off whatever is left of GG in the summer.

    As for domestic syndication, I could see TNT picking up Nikita.

  • PHIL

    Nikita was more likely to be cancelled than renewed so the writers ended the second season on a high. Now the show is now boring.

  • AT

    I think if BATB can keep it’s numbers they’ll get a second season as long as they don’t continue to drop. Maybe they’ll even go up a bit. The second episode was a lot better than the first and it is the type of show to get loyal fans. It’s a definite word of mouth type show that critics will never get, but many women do. Urban fantasy usually doesn’t sit well with critics. Anyway, I think the new show that will end up being canceled is Emily Owens. That said, I can’t imagine them giving 90210 a final season with those ratings. They have enough time to announce mid-season that it’s the final season so they can have an ending. I hope you’re right about Nikita though. It is a great show. At the end of the season I think they’ll renew Supernatural, Arrow, BATB and the Vampire Diaries. The other ones are more up in the air. I really think the new CW president knows how similar BATB is to Moonlight and is hoping to catch that audience. So I doubt he wants to make the same mistake CBS did when they canceled Moonlight. Now he just needs to get those viewers! More music video promos would be advantageous. With shows like BATB the network needs to realize that the targeted audience want to be a little bit spoiled. They shouldn’t be afraid to give a little bit away. Show a rescue in a music video, show something epically romantic, etc…It definitely worked for Moonlight. Was the first episode perfect? No. But the final scene which then added that Celine Dion/Taking Chances video with revealing/spoilery clips got me hooked. And it got a lot of people hooked! Then the promo went online and spread! I think BATB needs similar promotion.

  • RJ

    Who the hell would buy the syndication rights to a show that gets a 0.3 for original episodes?

  • Alan

    Any news of The L.A. Complex renewal?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I’m surprised SPN, Arrow, and TVD haven’t been renewed yet seeing those ratings.”

    Are you surprised because you don’t understand the typical renewal calendar for US broadcast prime-time shows?

    ‘Who the hell would buy the syndication rights to a show that gets a 0.3 for original episodes?”

    Somebody who gets it cheap. Happens all the time.

  • a p garcia

    along with TMD.

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