CW: Woefully Rated 'Nikita' Is Likely To Be Renewed; Wait, WHAT??!!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Gossip Girl final season 0.49
90210 :| :| :| 0.62
Emily Owens, M.D. :| :| :| 0.62
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.74
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.17
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

-
Nikita premiered with a "look away" bad 0.3 adults 18-49 rating for its third season. However, when the CW renewed the already poorly rated Nikita for a third season last spring, co-owner Warner Brothers (that produces Nikita) put a stake in the ground that should get it a fourth season to reach 88 episodes for stripped syndication. The other co-owner of the CW, CBS, has done this before with their low rated dramas (most recently, The Good Wife), and I predict will do it again (Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0).

I'm not going to guarantee Nikita will air during the broadcast season, perhaps the CW will do with it as they have America's Next Top Model and push it off to a mostly or all summer schedule, but those 88 episodes are going to get made, last spring's renewal all but guarantees it.

Emily Owens, MD premiere ratings were woeful too, and it'll probably be in the headline next week.

Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, I assume 90210 will be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings. They could certainly change their tune and cancel it though if schedule time next season gets tight.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Michael

    Although, I think Mark Pedowitz moving Nikita to summer, would be great business, IMO! They need more scripted programming for their summer schedule.

  • Ram510

    Well if they make Nikita into a summer show I hope the put the 3rd and 4th season back to back

  • Ram510

    I surprised Vampire Diaries hasn’t got a syndication deal yet

  • Michael

    @Ram510, Vampire Diaries hasn’t reached 88 episodes, yet.

  • Jamie

    @tv#1

    I’d LOVE it too. I think it should get a new cast though.

  • Melanie

    Assuming that the shows stay in this relative order – a lot is going to depend on the pilot season. I don’t think the CW will be married to the idea that 90210 needs a send off season of 13 episodes if it needs the schedule space.
    Arrow, TVD & SPN will be renewed. Nikita will be renewed (The syndication gods must be appeased!)We already know ANTM is moving to the summer.
    CW will have 6 slots for HOD, BATB, EOMD, 90210, Carrie Diaries, Cult and the new pilots to duke it out for next season.
    If EOMD drops tonight and if BATB keeps dropping, I could see one of them being pulled from the schedule for repeats of Arrow.

  • Tom

    @ Mr. Gorman: From the TV Addict.com July 30 2012:

    “We’re big fans of the show which actually does really well for us both digitally and socially,” said Pedowtiz on the topic of how THE L.A. COMPLEX is faring on his summer schedule. “It’s a well made show with a nice sense of reality of what it’s like to try to make it in this industry. [Showrunner] Martin Gero is fantastic and I hope to be in business with him for a very long time.”

    So, Mr. Gorman, rest assured the price is right and that Pedowitz will be purveying this sludge for at least one more summer.

  • Lisa

    Does anyone have any actual proof of how Nikita is performing overseas? I mean solid numbers with legitimate sources, not the vague “it’s the #1 American show in X country” or whatever.

  • Michael

    @Lisa, My thoughts exactly. Tracking iTunes charts (not much of a factor), but the only shows that do well internationally are: Gossip Girl, Vampire Diaries, Supernatural, and Arrow. These shows go straight #1 after their episodes air on TV, for the most part. Again, I’m not saying iTunes is much of a deciding factor for the network.

  • Yo

    They should get Nikita out of Fridays! It’s one of their best shows (quality-wise of course). WHy don’t they dump 90210 on Fridays and let Nikita live somewhere else. That’s the only way the show could survive until it gets its 88 episode. I’m glad GG is done for good. Also, Dixie is likely to get a renewal. The second year improved the show and being such an expensive show performing really well on internet, it’ll be safe. Beauty and the Beast seems as floppy as Ringer and TSC, so it probably will be gone by May, just like TSC’s deserved cancelation! :)

  • Yo

    *Hart of Dixie is cheap

  • JJA

    Keep in mind, every single country has its own iTunes page, so you’d have to look at every iTunes page to get an idea of how well overseas sales are.

    Also, not all countries air new episodes at the same time as the US, so you can’t just look at how well Nikita is doing today in, for example, the UK and say it is or is not a hit over there.

    In short, we have no way of knowing how much revenue Nikita (or any shows) produces for the network, nor do we have any idea of how well it does internationally.

    But I am very curious to learn.

  • Brandy

    Yo, Dixie is CW s cheapest show to make,along with 90210.Also, Nikita is doing too terrible to move & waste a valuable timeslots plus Mon-Thurs are very competitive and it’ll still do just as bad as its doing now.They moved it Fri cause it wasn’t doing well enough to justify keeping it on a regular weeknight(fri dosent count cause noones home to watch tv so standards are lower a)& keeping it on Fri is what’s keeping it from axed.
    Melanie, 90210 will get a short final season :Mark said last spring”I believe in giving long running shows a proper wrap up/farewell/send off”& it’s doing as bad GG was when it got renewed for a final short season.Oth,SMV,GG all got final seasons.Plus,90210 is one of CWs cheapest shows to make and it makes a lot of money internationally, iTunes,DVD sales ect.If Pedowitz renewed Nikita at seven 0.4 & now 0.3 and under a million viewers,90210 will be renewed.Also,Emily Owens is Likley to be cancelled(& possibly Beauty and Hart too)& GG ending that’s three shows at least to replace and possibly Cult and Carrie Diaries too.

  • Anna

    I don’t know about the other countries, but in my country, Brazil, the only shows of CW that make real success are The Vampire Diaries, Gossip Girl and Supernatural.

  • RG-X

    I can see Nikita doing better in syndication – but they beter have an ending to the series.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Yo, Dixie is CW s cheapest show to make,along with 90210″

    How could you possibly know that?

  • Ricky

    Happy to see Arrow get the five green smiley upgrade! :mrgreen:

    If you wanna have some fun, come play the Elimination Game: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-15/#comments

  • Brandy

    Melanie, also, I expect 90210 to get a syndication deal wich will bring in more money & more episodes for syndication and Netflix, more money for CW

  • Z

    Wow Syndication is really powerful to give Nikita a likely renewal with those ratings. And It would be a very smart move to move it to Summer, since it is already getting numbers that it got during the summer, so it might even do better.

  • mich

    I’m from Latin America and here just aired the first season of Nikita.
    the second season came not because the first was not successful.
    the series that are broadcast on different channels now are:
    ARROW and SUPERNATURAL: WARNER CHANNEL
    GOSSIP GIRL and HART OF DIXIE: GLITZ
    90210: SONY SPIN
    ONE TREE HILL: FOX (LATINO)

    sorry for my english

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures