CW: Woefully Rated 'Nikita' Is Likely To Be Renewed; Wait, WHAT??!!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Gossip Girl final season 0.49
90210 :| :| :| 0.62
Emily Owens, M.D. :| :| :| 0.62
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.74
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.17
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

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Nikita premiered with a "look away" bad 0.3 adults 18-49 rating for its third season. However, when the CW renewed the already poorly rated Nikita for a third season last spring, co-owner Warner Brothers (that produces Nikita) put a stake in the ground that should get it a fourth season to reach 88 episodes for stripped syndication. The other co-owner of the CW, CBS, has done this before with their low rated dramas (most recently, The Good Wife), and I predict will do it again (Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0).

I'm not going to guarantee Nikita will air during the broadcast season, perhaps the CW will do with it as they have America's Next Top Model and push it off to a mostly or all summer schedule, but those 88 episodes are going to get made, last spring's renewal all but guarantees it.

Emily Owens, MD premiere ratings were woeful too, and it'll probably be in the headline next week.

Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, I assume 90210 will be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings. They could certainly change their tune and cancel it though if schedule time next season gets tight.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • cas127

    Bill,

    I wonder what the CW’s business model is, exactly.

    Sure getting shows to syndication means additional revenue (with the CW itself only making $400 million or so) but I’m not sure *where* these shows get syndicated.

    I only see Supernatural in the mornings on TNT (or TBS, I forget which) and Smallville in the early, early AM (like 3 AM) on TNT.

    So who exactly is buying CW’s content? Overseas markets?

    Moreover, I *guess* that producing a 60 minute show costs less than producing two 30 minute shows (less overhead) because the CW stays away from 30 minute sitcoms like the plague.

    Even though they repeat/syndicate much better than hour long dramas.

    Again, the CW’s business model is a bit of a puzzlement.

  • getmilk

    Hmm..what does everyone think of this? It was posted on the Facebook page but seem to have been deleted.

    “My inside source tells me that The LA Complex has actually been picked up for season 3 and 4 with the recent international acquisition of the show.

    Season 3 begins shooting early winter and will premiere in late spring in Canada. Season 4 to premiere in the summer.

    The CW has not made any decisions to pick up the show again but it’s still early”

  • glover

    Nikita does not make money on the CW and will be cheap for the networks that may buy the show in syndication, so I don’t understand how Warner Bros and the CW will make money by renewing Nikita for another season, considering that this show look expensive.

    Also, Gossip Girl and Supernatural are the only shows from the CW that have syndication deals, right? If the CW didn’t sold other shows for syndication, wouldn’t be difficult to sell Nikita too? Specially when it’s the lowest rated show on the network.

  • cas127

    And, if cost control were such a priority, why no reality shows on the CW?

    Does reality flop overseas?

  • herpderp

    @cas127

    CW parent studios Warner Bros. and CBS make money from international airings and DVD sales, plus revenue from the Netflix and Hulu deals. Syndication is a bonus for both parties.

    Also, GG is syndicated on Style, not that it matters much. TVD could easily end up on ABC Family.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I wonder what the CW’s business model is, exactly.”

    Conventional wisdom is that the CW loses money as a network on an operating basis, but CBS and WB make that money back on the ability to resell the shows they produce internationally, on DVD, on Netflix, etc.

    The business model that’s in more jeopardy than the CW network, is that of individual CW affiliates, who get none of that money.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “And, if cost control were such a priority, why no reality shows on the CW?”

    No resale ability for CBS/WB.

  • Stella

    hehehe I really can’t.

    But I agree with Bill, they renewed Nikita with not so great ratings for a 3rd season, it will get it’s 88 eps.

    woop

  • Richard castle

    bizzaro can we be best friends!? well said

  • Bern

    Well I think CW needs to move Nikita back to 8pm. Plus if your a Grimm fan (like me) it interferes with both shows because at the same time. Like I said Nikita might get the full 4th (final?) season OR a short final season. By this time next year were not going to have these shows Gossip Girl, Emily Owens MD, and Beauty and the Beast. Maybe Nikita will continue on. People who likes action, spy shows need to start watching Nikita because it’s a quality TV show, just because it’s on the least popular network dosen’t means it’s not good.

  • CrystalBall

    @Bill

    Do the affiliates get paid by the commercials or is it based on a contract ?

  • Felipe

    Oh, please. How some people say that this season of Nikita is boring? JUST ONE EPISODE WAS AIRED. And it’s great, i think some people really can not differentiate good shows and bad shows.. Without seeing only by the ratings, viewers..

    Nikita was not so bad on latin america. With the exception of The Vampire Diaries, the only series that are successful in the Warner Channel, are sitcoms. And on Brazil, , the first season will begin airing in one of the biggest channels in the country (same as displays Supernatural, Gossip Girl and The Vampire Diaries).

  • Mickey

    @agnes

    I assume it was Ultima you were calling a “jealous Marvel fanboy” and telling to “grow up,” though you addressed the post to anonymous who hasn’t posted anything in this thread.

    Anyway, Ultima wasn’t being an immature fanboy, he was just explaining to you how the Index works: it takes the average of all of a show’s 18-49 demos, and then rates them relative to each other. The average of 1.6 + 1.3 is 1.45. The average of 1.3 + 1.3 is 1.3. Therefore TVD rates above Arrow because 1.45 is greater than 1.3.

    So if you want to be mad at someone, be mad at Math. Ultima has nothing to do with it.

    @Randy

    I don’t know why CW choose Green Arrow. Why didn’t they think Batman? Who’s one of the most popular WB characters? It’s Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman. Yet, they chose Green Arrow. Really?? I will still watch this Arrow show, but it doesn’t make sense about no Batman…

    I would imagine they wanted new territory to explore and develop. I love Batman, but Batman has been done to death. Whereas apart from a secondary character on Smallville, Green Arrow is a fresh sandbox to play in.

    @cas127

    So who exactly is buying CW’s content? Overseas markets?

    Speaking for Canada, CW shows are everywhere, on both French and English channels, in both real time and syndication, and on more than one channel in some cases.

  • Marc

    I Hope 90210 gets renewed for at least a FINAL 13 episode, because the show is really good, the problem is the Producer and the writers the new producers (Former Life unexpected) suck, Life unexpected got cancel…..so theres not doubt they suck, the Season 2 producers needs to come back…..Because Im a HUGEE FAN of 90210 but its true that its becoming a little bit boring at times (Last night was not the best episodes)and its all because of the writers and producers

  • Tom

    Mr. Gorman, This is how Mark Pedowitz envisions the Hulu (and presumably Netflix) deal as a step toward revitalizing the CW’s network affiliates:

    “Our new arrangement with Hulu only affirms the incredible value of The CW’s series, as well as amplifying the immense power of the broadcast network model,” said Mark Pedowitz, President, The CW. “As we increase the amount of year round original programming on The CW, this deal provides our shows with greater exposure on a new platform, helping build even more awareness that will drive viewers back to the network and its affiliates. We see this as a win for everyone involved, the network, the stations, Hulu and ultimately, the viewers.”

    AllthingsD.com 10-28-2011 http://allthingsd.com/20111028/cbs-warner-sell-gossip-girl-and-other-shows-again-this-time-to-hulu/

    Personally, I think this is absurd, but at least it addresses the issue. I cannot say with any certainty if the CW affiliates have reaped any benefits from Pedowitz’s machinations. From what I can tell, the affiliates have a certain amount of ad time to sell during the CW’s shows. They also have a lot more of their own programming to sell because of the scarcity of the CW’s original programming. If, as you’ve suggested, they can make more money selling their own programming, then we’ll have proof of it in a couple of years. However, if the CW wants to keep its Hulu and Netflix deals, I don’t see Pedowitz letting his affiliates slip away just yet. Why else would he have referred to them in the above quote? I don’t know how this will ultimately play out, but I seriously doubt that shows like HOD, B&B, Nikita and EO are going to bolster the CW’s bargaining position. If Pedowitz is serious about what he said, this flotsam will drift away by next season, if not earlier.

  • vikrammangat@yahoo.com

    Nikita has already cut a veteran cast member last year, they can easily do something similar, if need be.
    i wonder if they would air it on different night during summer run.

    90210 should be 4 stars, with CW history of final seasons lately.

  • Gus

    So past CW programming (Life Unexpected, Reaper) had to go but Nikita stays on possibly for a fourth season for the sake of syndication rights? What happens if the drops to a 0.2 or 0.1 in its’ next outing? What good would it be to keep the show hanging around then?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Do the affiliates get paid by the commercials or is it based on a contract ?”

    1. The affiliates pay the CW network under a long term agreement, that I doubt is related to current ratings.
    2. The affiliates get to sell a certain portion of the advertising time that runs in the CW national primetime.
    3. Although I haven’t read specifically about CW, my guess is that the affiliates get some portion of the retransmission fees that cable and satco’s pay.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Tom, my guess is that what Pedowitz was referring to re: the affiliate benefits is spending money on original shows in the summer instead of airing all repeats. They certainly spent more money in the summer of 2012 than they have in the past (which was zero).

    Their basic pitch to the affiliates on the Netflix and Hulu deals seems to be, “hey, we’re getting all this extra money, and we’ll spend it on more shows, and you’ll get the benefits from those new shows”.

    It’s definitely NOT “hey, we’re getting all this extra money, and we’re going to share some of it with you!”.

  • Ale

    @agnes
    “Nikita is a huge international seller. HUGE.”

    I believe that latin america is an important market, and after season 1 ended Warner Channel stopped airing it. And the show is good that I won’t deny! Just like Gossip Girl also stopped airing in season 3. Haven’t watch the two shows since then.

    Btw sitcoms are the ones with the bigger ratings but lets not forget Smallville, it was bringing between 15-20 million viewers in season 9.

    ps. sorry it my english is bad. =P

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