CW: Woefully Rated 'Nikita' Is Likely To Be Renewed; Wait, WHAT??!!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Gossip Girl final season 0.49
90210 :| :| :| 0.62
Emily Owens, M.D. :| :| :| 0.62
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.74
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.17
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

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Nikita premiered with a "look away" bad 0.3 adults 18-49 rating for its third season. However, when the CW renewed the already poorly rated Nikita for a third season last spring, co-owner Warner Brothers (that produces Nikita) put a stake in the ground that should get it a fourth season to reach 88 episodes for stripped syndication. The other co-owner of the CW, CBS, has done this before with their low rated dramas (most recently, The Good Wife), and I predict will do it again (Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0).

I'm not going to guarantee Nikita will air during the broadcast season, perhaps the CW will do with it as they have America's Next Top Model and push it off to a mostly or all summer schedule, but those 88 episodes are going to get made, last spring's renewal all but guarantees it.

Emily Owens, MD premiere ratings were woeful too, and it'll probably be in the headline next week.

Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, I assume 90210 will be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings. They could certainly change their tune and cancel it though if schedule time next season gets tight.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Ale

    Forgot to add that The Vampire Diaries aired season 3 at 1pm (my country time zone)not primetime and that is something to be worried about. When Warner Channel decides to change the show timeslot it means the show its in trouble.

  • Moe

    Love seeing those green smilies next to Supernatural! Keeping my fingers crossed their ratings keep it up!

  • River

    The CW will abruptly disappear as quickly as WB and UPN did.

  • John

    My preferred CW mid-season sched:

    Monday
    8 PM Cult
    9 PM Beauty and the Beast

    Tuesday
    8 PM Hart of Dixie
    9 PM Emily Owens, MD

    Wednesday
    8 PM Arrow
    9 PM Nikita (some might find this stupid but hey, I love SPN and I do think it’s strong enough to be on it’s own. If there’s a show that needs Arrow’s help, it would be Nikita, not SPN.)

    Thursday
    8 PM The Vampire Diaries
    9 PM Supernatural (this should be here. Again, it’s a strong show and it works with TVD)

    Friday
    8 PM The Carrie Diaries (see 90210 and GG ratings. Might as well put this on Friday and who knows, it might work!)
    9 PM 90210

  • Peter Mazz

    My predictions for CW Renewals:

    Early Renewals:
    Arrow
    Supernatural (For 2 seasons)
    The Vampire Diaries

    Toss Up but finally renewed:
    Beauty & The Beast
    Cult
    Hart of Dixie
    90210 (Final Season)

    Cancellations:
    Gossip Girl (Final Season)
    Emily Owens, M.D
    America’s Next Top Model
    Nikita

  • Sid

    @Peter Mazz

    Top Model has already been renewed genius.

  • Kavyn

    My guesses for cancellations by the end of the year would be GG, 90210 and BTB (BTB’s pulling a Secret Circle, except a lot faster).

    EO I think will remain quite steady, and works decently with HOD. And Nikita might be pushed to Summer programming. ANTM is moving to the Summer, so that leaves 4-5 spots for new shows next year.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I agree with Bill that Nikita is likely to be renewed. It made no sense last season, so it makes the same sense this season, i.e., we simply can’t predict based on ratings. And next season the syndication gods rule.

    All of the non-genre shows on the CW are going away, that’s clear. The network is clearly turning into a genre show network – and that’s a Good Thing since SyFy sucks at it (with the sole exception of Alphas.)

    Beauty and the Beast may remain if it can hold a .7 or so for the rest of the season (which, however, is by no means certain.)

    Arrow is likely to survive if it keeps above a .8-1.0 for the rest of the season.

  • Ralph

    I feel like people are basing their predictions on certain tv shows base on the hate they have for the show not because of real facts.

  • Nick

    CW 2013-2014 schedule:

    Mon-
    8: The Carrie Diaries
    9: 90210 (10 episode final season)

    Tue-
    8: Supernatural
    9: Battle Royale (new)

    Wed-
    8: Arrow
    9: Amazon (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Hundred (new)

    Fri-
    8: Hart of Dixie
    9: Nikita (full final season)

  • violet hour

    i’m still rewatching the original nikita tv show so will wait for this to end before watching it eventually

  • Julio

    Emily Owens MD is really good! I hope the ratings rise. At least I hope CW tries to save it. Move it to Monday!! Im sure it will pull numbers better than GG!

  • Tom

    “I feel like people are basing their predictions on certain tv shows base (sic) on the hate they have for the show not because of real facts.”

    @ Ralph What “real facts” are you talking about? That all but three of the CW’s programs are ratings flops? That someone predicts a CW show with a demo of somewhere between 0.3 and 0.7 will be cancelled? That watching Lynsy Fonseca and Kristin Kreuk give one dimensional performances week after week is hardly gratifying? Face it, with the exception of Arrow TVD and (maybe) SN, there’s nothing on the CW to like. Maybe you enjoy the high school caliber of acting on HOD, but I can’t recommend it. So, call it hate if you must. I prefer to call it hearing from people who are fed up.

  • mayorofsmpleton

    Lyreco,
    Veronica Mars WAS renewed for a full 3rd season. It had the episode order cut to 20 during the final months of the broadcast season… Had they been thinking “Syndication!!!!” they’d not have cut the order and would have given it a 22 episode 4th season. CW didn’t want it. WB tried everything.

    Can people PLEASE stop thinking that a series needs EXACTLY 88 or more episodes for syndication?

    That’s not a hard and fast rule. More episodes = better overall deal. That’s the conventional wisdom.

    Most shows in the post 2000 climate are given 22 episode orders per season, so it HAPPENS that they typically hit 88 episodes after 4 years. That’s where the number is coming from “But “X” series had 88 and got a syndication deal!”

    88 episodes is not some magical number. A series can still get a deal with fewer episodes.

    Had CW renewed Veronica Mars and given it a full order for a 4th season it would have had 86 episodes… which would have been just fine to try to sell it into syndication. Would 88 or 100 have been preferred? Surely but it’s not like THAT was the reason it didn’t get a 4th season renewal. The CW cut 2 episodes from the order as the season hit the midpoint — had syndication been their plan they’d not have done that and would have ordered 22 more. It didn’t happen. Still, the series wasn’t doing nearly as badly as Nikita — relative to the other shows on the network.

    Also, let’s please not make the argument that because Nikita is pulling a .3 it wouldn’t perform better in syndication. CW is an anomaly. People just don’t watch it much.

    Need I mention “THE GAME” which CW canceled and was later resurrected on BET? The show premiered to ratings that topped EVERYTHING CW had on the air that season. Proving that the series COULD conceivably reach a bigger audience outside of the CWs dreadful marketing capabilities and ‘brand’ recognition.

    It’s the same reason Nikita and Veronica Mars have failed to find an audience. Neither really fits the mold of what CW has been programming itself as. Veronica Mars was a teen noir series with very dark undertones and a sarcastic sense of humor. It appealed to an older crowd than the W18-34 demo CW was trying to court. It stuck out like a sore thumb among One Tree Hill and similar teeny bopper fare.

    Nikita is an action series that probably would appeal more to M18-34 than anything on the CW but it premiered on Thursdays after TVD a very female skewing series. Neither VM nor Nikita really fits the ‘brand’ CW kept trying to cultivate and thus had trouble maintaining viewers. People who would probably have liked VM and Nikita are not the type of person watching CW. So the target audience is turned off by the network and network viewers are turned off because it defies their ‘niche label.’

    It’s not that the series is smarter than the rest of the stuff on the net, per say — it’s just that it doesn’t fit in with the rest of the shows. CBS has a similar problem with The Good Wife — which doesn’t appeal to the average CBS procedural ‘crime-time’ watcher because it’s heavily serialized and more nuanced than their typical hour longs — so it turns of their average viewer — then it’s hit from the other end by people who would probably like it because “I don’t watch anything on CBS, it’s all mindless fluff and procedural nonsense!” Good show — wrong network.

  • Survivor Fan

    I have never seen Nikita (or any show that is currently on the CW), but I will say that the woman in the photo is hot!

  • buddhaboi

    love seeing those green men by supernatural! how amazing that a show in it’s 8th season is doing so well. can’t wait for arrow/supernatural tommorrow!

  • Jonas Jade

    I’d say Nikita will only be guaranteed that fourth season if all of the third season is produced. (note difference from aired). I’d say there’s still a chance (probably small chance since I haven’t heard of this happening to any CW show before), especially with CW having midseason shows in waiting this season, that Nikita gets its episode order cut. (Eg, 15 episodes or something). Then, ordering even a full 22 episodes for season 4 would fall short of the target.

  • Eric_Philly

    Well, that’s a pretty clear bifurcation. Down with the dumb teenage dramas!

  • Anthony

    CW 2013-2014 Schedule

    Mondays-

    8:00- Hart Of Dixie
    9:00- Oxygen (New)

    Tuesdays-

    8:00- The Hundred (New)
    9:00- Supernatural

    Wednesdays-

    8:00- Arrow
    9:00- Embrace (New)

    Thursdays-

    8:00- The Vampire Diaries
    9:00- Sleepy Hollow (New)

    Fridays

    8:00- 90210 (Final Season 13 Episodes)/ America’s Next Top Model
    9:00- Nikita (Final Season)/The L.A Complex (Summer Series 13 Episodes)

  • JohnnyRico

    I would say its renewal has way more to do with Intl revenue then with syndication.

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