CW: Woefully Rated 'Nikita' Is Likely To Be Renewed; Wait, WHAT??!!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Gossip Girl final season 0.49
90210 :| :| :| 0.62
Emily Owens, M.D. :| :| :| 0.62
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.74
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.17
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

-
Nikita premiered with a "look away" bad 0.3 adults 18-49 rating for its third season. However, when the CW renewed the already poorly rated Nikita for a third season last spring, co-owner Warner Brothers (that produces Nikita) put a stake in the ground that should get it a fourth season to reach 88 episodes for stripped syndication. The other co-owner of the CW, CBS, has done this before with their low rated dramas (most recently, The Good Wife), and I predict will do it again (Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0).

I'm not going to guarantee Nikita will air during the broadcast season, perhaps the CW will do with it as they have America's Next Top Model and push it off to a mostly or all summer schedule, but those 88 episodes are going to get made, last spring's renewal all but guarantees it.

Emily Owens, MD premiere ratings were woeful too, and it'll probably be in the headline next week.

Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, I assume 90210 will be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings. They could certainly change their tune and cancel it though if schedule time next season gets tight.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • may

    wonderful news for Nikita

  • pal

    @mayorofsmpleton
    That’s some of the best comments I’ve seen.

    The CW has really become a failure in branding and marketing. Since its inception, it’s been getting lower viewer counts than either WB and UPN, even though it’s suppose to be a merger. Sure, network coverage and deals with affiliates mattered somewhat, but the real reason was the attempt to start the network with shows that ONLY appeal to w18-34. I hope they have realized thaty now that the niche was way too small for a TV network. Both WB and UPN skewed young and female, but not to this degree and they had shows that EVERYONE watched – 7th heaven, star trek enterprise, charmed, Reba. Somehow 6 years after the merger, the WB feels more complete a network than the CW is today… I do hope someday CW finds the will to transition from this awful niche network that most people actively rejects into trying to be a real TV network again.

  • Restless

    Lyreco Hollywood Invasian is not a creditable news source and is clearly just pulling that line from what they’ve heard from fans like you, with no proof whatsoever. We can assume and guess, but that doesn’t make it correct.

  • javier

    @MICHEAL Here in China tv.sohu.com bought the whole Nikita and made it legitimate for Chinese viewers to watch Nikita online. More than 0.19 billion clicks for S1 and 0.14 billion clicks for S2. This thing combined with inplant commericials played when streaming has brought a huge profit for WB and sohu actually. NIKITA IS VERY HUGE IN CHINA.

  • Charles

    Bill what would be your guess as to the impact the Cablevision standoff has on the CW ratings? We’re talking about 3 million homes in the New York area alone.

    When the NFL has a game on Thursday it has to be aired locally (per the TV contract) in the cities of the teams playing, thereby inflating the numbers (temporarily) of the local channel it airs on.

    Would the reverse apply in this case?

  • Ultima

    @Charles
    what would be your guess as to the impact the Cablevision standoff has on the CW ratings?

    The impact is insignificant.

    Cablevision viewers make up approximately 3% of the CW’s households, which is less than the rounding error in the ratings.

    When the NFL has a game on Thursday it has to be aired locally (per the TV contract) in the cities of the teams playing, thereby inflating the numbers (temporarily) of the local channel it airs on.

    NFL preemptions have a big impact on ratings because the time is filled by a show with massive ratings that has to be removed (NFL games typically get local HH ratings in excess of 25.0).

  • Hades

    0.19 billion=190 million and 0.14 billion=140 million ?

  • agnes

    @Mickey
    “I assume it was Ultima you were calling a “jealous Marvel fanboy” and telling to “grow up,” though you addressed the post to anonymous who hasn’t posted anything in this thread.

    Anyway, Ultima wasn’t being an immature fanboy, he was just explaining to you how the Index works: it takes the average of all of a show’s 18-49 demos, and then rates them relative to each other. The average of 1.6 + 1.3 is 1.45. The average of 1.3 + 1.3 is 1.3. Therefore TVD rates above Arrow because 1.45 is greater than 1.3.

    So if you want to be mad at someone, be mad at Math. Ultima has nothing to do with it.”

    No I was calling anonymous an immature fanboy because anonymous posted a trollish remark which got deleted.
    I was addressing Ultima by calling him/her Ultima.

  • Lori

    Hey guys just wondering, why hasn’t anyone suggested 90210 as a summer series. After all summer seasons really helped the original 90210, and it ran for 10 years. Just saying!!! I say put 90210, Nikita, LA Complex, on in the summer, with ANTM already being held for summer, this way there would be at least be some scripted shows on in the summer. They could then fill the rest of the schedule with more reality programming. Sounds like a winner to me!!!

  • Mickey

    @agnes

    My mistake. When I couldn’t see any posts by anonymous, it didn’t occur to me it could’ve been deleted. Apologies.

    @pal

    I do hope someday CW finds the will to transition from this awful niche network that most people actively rejects into trying to be a real TV network again.

    New prez Mark Pedowitz has already started the transition this year. I think he thought he would have to do it gradually by keeping some young women-oriented shows while introducing new shows with a broader appeal, but as @Eric_Philly noted, there is a clear “bifurcation” (great word!) so “Down with dumb teenage dramas!” I’m betting next year Pedowitz will boldly go where man also wants to watch tv and add more sci-fi/fantasy shows, seeing as they’re doing so much better than Ostroff’s babies.

    Last spring I predicted the top three shows would end up being Arrow, TVD and SPN. Looks like things are heading in that direction.

  • Brandy

    Cws only good shows are VD,HoD,GG, ANTM,90210,B&B,EOMD(second episode was better than pilot.).The rest I hope die.I think Pedowitz will still have shows aimed at young women, it just won’t be 99% of the programming(Pliots:Confession of a Backup Dancer,Reign).

  • omabin

    @Bill Gorman,

    I think you should not have waited a week to put EO in the headline. I think there is a big chance it could get pulled this week. It’s at 0.3 on the second week it’s on.

  • Brandy

    I like young women skewing/oriented shows,that’s the only reason I watch CW & abcfamily.I hope Pedowitz dosent dosent completely abandon this demo.Other than, VD,B& B and The Gates, fantasy/supernatural dosent interst me, never was into scifi and not into comic books, but I hope Amazon gets picked up to series.I like that CW & abcfamily havre shows targeted to me(I’m a woman in the w18-34 ) and I feel it’s a neglected demo, abcfamily proves there’s is a audience for young female/young woman shows and most of the other tv shows(except BBt and 2 BGs) ,the shows seem aimed at people 40+.

  • Craig

    “How might the CBS factor affect renewal chances?
    Unless I’m mistaken 90210 and Beauty and the Beast are the only 2 scripted shows on the network made by CBS right, with all the others being WB properties?
    Will they insist on keeping at least one of these shows on the network next year even if the ratings are low due to joint ownership?”

    Emily Owens MD is also a CBS-produced show. Off the top of my head I’m not sure what Top Model is, but that might be as well.

  • Brandy

    I’m really forward to Carrie Diaries as I’m a SATC fan and they did a perfect job casting AnnaSophia Robb as a young Carrie from the previews.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill Gorman,

    I think you should not have waited a week to put EO in the headline. I think there is a big chance it could get pulled this week. It’s at 0.3 on the second week it’s on.”

    Perhaps. It’s always a tricky decision what to headline, early in the season.

  • Hans

    Why on earth would anyone syndicate a show that only gets 0.3 on its original run? It is a failed show and nothing will change it.

  • Bizarro

    GG, 90210, Vampire Diaries, Supernatural, and Ringer are all bigger international sellers than Nikita. But why are only 2 of them doing good and the rest have been or likely to be cancelled. Nikita is on because Warmer Bros love their flopped series plain and simple.

  • Arrow

    @Hans

    Why do you care so much?

    @Bizarro

    It’s a good thing they love Nikita! :D

  • may

    @Bizarro Ringer is already dead. Canceled. Not broadcast this season

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures