NBC: 'Chicago Fire' Cools To A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice canceled .65*
Up All Night :oops: 0.69
30 Rock final season 0.69
Guys With Kids :| :| :| 0.79
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.83
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.90
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.90
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.95
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.97
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.04
The Office final season 1.12
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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Believe it or not, the 1.9 adults 18-49 premiere rating for Chicago Fire was above the 1.8 faux average I calculated for NBC scripted shows (faux, because it counts every show the same regardless of running time) two weeks ago. However last week's plunge to a 1.5 rating put it at just 88% of NBC's average for the week, that's in the "toss up" zone between renewal and cancelation for a rookie show. Stay tuned, it's still early and predictions can change weekly.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Scott

    Glad to see Grimm moved to certain renewal. Will Chicago Fire follow the same path as Awake?

  • RyanCanada

    RIP – UAN

  • christian

    Move law@order svu back to 10 where it belongs. Better yet back to Tuesday where it won at 10

  • John A

    A little early to speculate Chicago Fire Renewel. It dont have a full season yet.

  • Kate

    It’s still early and with NBC being the way it is anything could happen, so I’ll wait to worry about anything on this network until April/May when renewals start happening. Luckily the show I’m most worried about is P&R and that’s at most likely renewed, for now. Nothing is really safe yet because it’s only October.

  • TVDude

    I like Parenthood and SVU, and agree with you, but it’s just sad that they’re certain even though they don’t hit 2.0′s anymore. It just shows how much NBC is depending on The Voice right now.

    Shows like Revolution (to a lesser extent), Go One, and TNN are all dependent on the show that airs before it. They’re still certain to be renewed, but the rest of NBC’s schedule shows that if any of these three shows were to air without The Voice, their averages would stink too.

  • Dean-W

    Hope Revolution will fall. This show is killing both of Hawaii Five-0 and Castle.

  • Leondre

    I agree with Christian. Move svu back to tuesdays at 10 and move Parenthood to Thursdays at 10

  • THE OLD MAN

    UAN is a sure goner
    CF cooled so fast, not generating the “heat” that was expected–time not on its side

  • Jamie

    NBC should have a little bit of a move at mid-season.

    Monday and Tuesday should obviously remain the same.

    Wednesday
    8:00-8:30PM Whitney
    8:30-9:00PM Guys With Kids
    9:00-10:00PM SMASH
    10:00-11:00PM Infamous

    Thursday
    8:00-9:00PM The Biggest Loser
    9:00-9:30PM The Office
    9:30-10:00PM Parks & Recreation
    10:00-11:00PM Law & Order: SVU

    Friday
    8:00-9:00PM Dateline NBC
    9:00-10:00PM GRIMM
    10:00-11:00PM HANNIBAL

    Sunday
    7:00-8:00PM Fashion Star
    8:00-8:30PM 1600 PENN
    8:30-9:00PM Community
    9:00-10:00PM Celebrity Apprentice
    10:00-11:00PM Do No Harm

  • Kate

    I’m interested in seeing how TNN does against the X Factor tonight… See if it can hold it’s own, because on a normal night it really doesn’t have much competition and its lead in is fantastic.

  • Jay

    Love Chicago Fire. Hope they at least give it a full season. Easily the best new show I have seen this season.

  • Bjm

    SVU needs to be back where it belongs. I saw Chicago Fire Saturday. I wasn’t impressed.

  • Cory

    Shame about Up All Night. Last season was kind of hit and miss, but I decided to stay with it this season, and its completely awesome. Probably my favorite sitcom on right now (though Happy Endings returns tonight which has a shot to reclaim the crown).

    UAN is just on fire this year, making me laugh frequently and consistently, and its a very genuine show. New Normal is not as funny as the other NBC sitcoms, but its a great, genuine show as well taht I realy enjoy.

  • SJ

    I’m guessing NBC will hold Community until January/February when 30 Rock and UAN end their runs, and then pair it up with Parks and Recreation, while 1600 Penn takes the 9:30 time slot. They will likely pass on the Office spin-off.

    Whitney will be paired up with Guys with Kids, and then likely with Save Me, with Off Their Rockers airing back-to-back episodes during April and May. Conceivably, Whitney and Community could get a few more episodes each, so that the former could serve as a lead-in to Save Me, while the latter could reach the “magic 88″ episodes for syndication.

    On the drama side, I’d guess that Parenthood gets a couple more episodes, then gets replaced by Smash mid-season. Infamous will likely replace Chicago Fire, and it will get replaced itself by Hannibal, after it inevitably fails two episodes in. Do No Harm could do solid business on Sundays following Celebrity Apprentice and even if it fails, they can just extend CA to two hours. The two rmaining mid-season dramas will, I’m assuming, be pushed to summer.

  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    @Jamie…. first that schedule is all wrong. The Biggest Loser have always been a tuesday or wednesday, moving it to Thursday is like NBC shooting themselves in the foot even more. Also, unless I read wrong..Guys with Kids won’t probably make it past December, possibly making 1600 Penn or Save Me ( a show you forgot to add) being the replacement.

    Either way we don’t know how NBC is gonna schedule it’s mideseason cuz just like last year, they have too many eggs in the basket

  • Lisa

    Chicago Fire really sucks, so I won’t miss it a bit when it’s gone. It’s like a very poor take-off on Third Watch, which was a generic show itself.

    I hope Parenthood can keep hanging in there!

  • CrimTV

    @Jamie

    I love your NBC schedule, wish this could be the real thing!

    @Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    Just because The Biggest Loser has always been on Tue/Wed does not mean they are BANNED from moving it to another forbidden night!

  • DamC

    My proposition for NBC midseason schedule

    MONDAY

    8- The Winner is (January)/The Voice (Feb-May)
    10- Infamous (Jan-Feb) / Revolution (Apr-May)

    Infamous could air 12 episodes with a 2-hour premiere, or premiere the pilot after The Voice’s fall finale.

    The pilot of The Winner Is could also air after The Voice finale and then offer a decent lead-in to Infamous in January.

    It may not be ideal, but as The Voice will likely air for 13-15 weeks and Revolution for only 9 weeks, it would be stupid to waste the timeslot.

    TUESDAY

    8- The Voice
    9- Go On
    9:30- The New Normal
    10- Smash

    WEDNESDAY

    8- Whitney (Jan-Feb)/The Biggest Loser (Mar-May)
    8:30- Guys With Kids (Jan-Feb)/The Biggest Loser (Mar-May)
    9- Law and Order SVU
    10- Hannibal (premieres the same night as TBL, with TBL having a 2-hour premiere)

    THURSDAY

    8- Community
    8:30- Save Me
    9- The Office
    9:30- Parks And Rec (Jan-Mar)/1600 Penn (Apr-May)
    10- Rock Center (Jan-Mar)/Crossbones (Mar-May)

    Crossbones would premiere after The Voice on a Tuesday to promote it. Or Rock Center could stay there and Crossbones could be pushed back to Summer (after AGT) or even later.

    FRIDAY

    8- Off Their Rockers (Mar-May)
    8:30- Whitney (Mar-May)
    9- Grimm
    10- Rock Center or Dateline

    SUNDAY

    7- Dateline
    8- Fashion Star
    9- Celebrity Apprentice
    10- Do No Harm

  • Ricky

    @SJ: So you suggest 1600 Penn should take the Office lead-in…I like your thinking. I still wish they’d brought it in for the fall, though.

    And here’s hoping Mockingbird Lane kills the competition, that would teach NBC not to pass on a Bryan Fuller project!

    If you wanna have some fun, come play the Elimination Game: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-15/#comments

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