NBC: 'Chicago Fire' Cools To A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice canceled .65*
Up All Night :oops: 0.69
30 Rock final season 0.69
Guys With Kids :| :| :| 0.79
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.83
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.90
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.90
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.95
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.97
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.04
The Office final season 1.12
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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Believe it or not, the 1.9 adults 18-49 premiere rating for Chicago Fire was above the 1.8 faux average I calculated for NBC scripted shows (faux, because it counts every show the same regardless of running time) two weeks ago. However last week's plunge to a 1.5 rating put it at just 88% of NBC's average for the week, that's in the "toss up" zone between renewal and cancelation for a rookie show. Stay tuned, it's still early and predictions can change weekly.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Jamie

    @Jonny C

    The Biggest Loser has undergone a reboot, so a new night will be good for the show. Away from the strong Wednesday performance of IDOL.

    I didn’t forget about Save Me. It would have taken Guys With Kids slot (which just got ordered for 5 more scripts).

    @CrimTV

    Thank you :)

  • ….

    Monday:
    8:00PM-9:00PM: The Voice
    9:00-10:00PM: Mockingbird Lane
    10:00-11:00PM: Revolution

    Tuesday:
    8:00-10:00PM: The Voice
    10:00PM-11:00PM: Parenthood

    Wednesday:
    8:00-8:30PM The Biggest Loser
    9:00PM-10:00PM: Law & Order SVU
    10:00PM-11:00PM: Crossbones

    Thursdays:
    8:00PM-8:30PM: Go On
    8:30PM-9:00PM: Community
    9:00-9:30PM: Parks & Recreation
    9:30-10:00PM: 1600 Penn
    10:00PM-11:00PM: Hannibal

    Fridays:
    8:00-9:00PM: Do No Harm
    9:00-10:00PM: Grimm
    10:00-11:00PM: Dracula

    Sundays:
    8:00-9:00PM: Football Night
    9:00-10:00PM: The Celebrity Apprentice
    10-11:00PM: Smash

  • tv#1

    I think in January NBC should launch an all new block of shows on Wednesdays. They should just go for it; they really have nothing to lose. They could put a comedy block on at the 8 o’clock hour, and then maybe put Hannibal and Infamous at 9 and 10. SVU then could be moved to Thursdays at 10.

  • Brian

    Good to see Grimm’s 5 smilies. This should’ve happened weeks ago because the ratings are the same as they were that got the 5. Also glad to see Revolution at the top with 5 smilies for NBC as usual. Both shows rock and always will :)

  • CrimTV

    @Jamie

    No problem haha

  • jon

    @ Jamie and CrimTv…. you two must be in delusional land if you think they will replace the first hour of what has be aThursday night comedy block that been around decades….for a reality show.

  • Randy

    Bring back Fear Factor, and Who’s Still Standing!! However, that Identity show was one of the best game shows that ever was on!

  • Jimmy

    To anybody, I have yet seen an episode of Chicago Fire, but with all this toss up…should I even watch an episode? Is it worth it?

  • jon

    let alone midseason.

  • Carm

    Keep Chicago Fire, it is great!! I Love it.
    Give it a chance NBC>

  • Jonnyc…. formerly jon

    lmao just noticed i used my old username on my phone sorry… @ Matt its been discussed that additional scripts doesnt always equal to additional episodes.

  • eridapo
  • Gideon

    You know what, someone here on TV by the Numbers needs to tell the truth about NBC, so I guess it’ll be me!

    ‘Law & Order: SVU’ needs to move back to Tuesdays at 10PM! ‘Parenthood’ needs to move to Wednesdays at 10PM! ‘Chicago Fire’ should have never been brought to series and needs to be canceled now (I was pissed to know Dick Wolf created something of this nature, it’s crap). Dick Wolf needs to sit his crazy self down and let Warren Leight run the new ‘Law & Order’ franchise!

    Damn shame.

  • Jamie

    @jon

    It’s a FANTASY schedule. And why wouldn’t they change the comedy block that gets beaten by The CW? The only other place for The Biggest Loser is Sunday.

  • Ram510

    I really hope Guys With Kids makes it to see a second season. I think Whitney will help give GWK a boost maybe back to a 1.6-1.8

  • William

    HAHA remember when Grimm was predicted by most to be the first show cancelled last season? Now it gets 5 smileys in its 2nd season and i assume will get at least 4 seasons

  • Keyser

    Chicago Fire I could do without as it’s in the same realm of cop/lawyer/doctor show that I can’t sit through anymore so if it gets the axe, I’m fine.

    I would agree that last season of Up All Night was hit or miss but the slight retooling of the second season has made it better and every show thus far I’ve liked. Normally when they retool it they destroy the show like Breakin In. But it’s probably too late for Up All Night to get viewers.

  • atlast

    I love GRIMMs green smiles… been waiting a long time to see that.

  • patrickk

    SUNDAY: SAME
    MONDAY: SAME

    TUESDAY:

    8:00 The Voice
    9:00 Go On
    9:30 The New Normal
    10:00 Infamous

    WEDNESDAY:

    8:00 The Biggest Loser
    9:00 Hannibal
    10:00 Law And Order: SVU

    THURSDAY:

    8:00 Community
    8:30 Parks and Rec
    9:00 The Office
    9:30 1600 Penn
    10:00 Smash

    FRIDAY:

    8:00 Whitney
    8:30 Guys With Kids/ Save Me
    9:00 Grimm
    10:00 Dracula

  • Frustrated

    Not giving up on UP ALL NIGHT yet!! It’s ratings went up 27% last week, and was the only show on Thursday night NBC that improved …and dramatically at that! It is a GREAT show! And it is one of NBC shows that has maintained or improved ratings weekly while most others’ ratings went down. The bear needs to find something else to chew on….like Guys with Kids. Why The New Normal didn’t get canceled is beyond me.

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