NBC: 'Chicago Fire' Cools To A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice canceled .65*
Up All Night :oops: 0.69
30 Rock final season 0.69
Guys With Kids :| :| :| 0.79
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.83
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.90
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.90
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.95
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.97
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.04
The Office final season 1.12
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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Believe it or not, the 1.9 adults 18-49 premiere rating for Chicago Fire was above the 1.8 faux average I calculated for NBC scripted shows (faux, because it counts every show the same regardless of running time) two weeks ago. However last week's plunge to a 1.5 rating put it at just 88% of NBC's average for the week, that's in the "toss up" zone between renewal and cancelation for a rookie show. Stay tuned, it's still early and predictions can change weekly.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Nick

    The New Normal – :D :D :D :D

    Where are all the haters who said it was going to fail now?

  • Emily

    why did you give law and order a certain to be renewed, I mean its ratings aren’t awful (yet) by NBC standards, but they’re certainly not great, or certain to be renewed

  • Nick

    @Emily
    The way that the R/C index works is that anything over ~95% of the scripted average (SVU is 97%) is considered certain to be renewed, with a few exceptions, such as falling shows and rookies that have only aired a few epiosdes. At least, that’s Bill’s thinking.

  • Emily

    @nick I get that, I guess my thinking is it’s ratings continually hitting series lows (which over a span of 14 years is a huge problem) plus its such an old show, so it should be really expensive?

  • Grimman

    Anyone know what Grimm ended last season averaging? Whether an overall, or even the season finale?

  • Nick

    @Emily

    The cost information isn’t made public, so there’s no way to accurately include that in predictions like this. Also, shows hit series lows every year. It’s no big deal.

  • Nick

    @Grimman

    The L+SD average for Grimm last year was 1.53.

  • Nick

    NBC 2013-2014 fantasy schedule:

    Mon-
    8: The Voice
    10: The Eleventh Commandment (new)

    Tue-
    8: The Voice
    9: Go On
    9:30: Untitled Cee Lo Green Project (new)
    10: Family Affair (new)

    Wed-
    8: Parenthood
    9: Revolution
    10: SVU

    Thu-
    8: Untitled Michael J. Fox project (new)
    8:30: Untitled Peter Murrieta Project (new)
    9: 1600 Penn
    9:30: The New Normal
    10: Infamous

    Fri-
    8: Whitney
    8:30: Parks & Recreation (full final season)
    9: Grimm
    10: Hench (new)

    Sat-
    8: Untitled MJF project (R)
    8:30: Untitled Cee Lo Green Project (R)
    9: Rock Center
    10: Law & Order: SVU (R)

    Sun- (midseason)
    7: Dateline
    8: The Biggest Loser
    9:30: The Celebrity Apprentice

  • Matty B

    Grimm will get the “chuck” treatment it will get renewed for a 3 season get a syndication deal and it will go to a 5 and shorten 13 ep. Final season

    And go on is the number 1 comedy yayayayay!!!!!

  • omabin

    I think that SVU as certain is completely wrong and I don’t remember the last time I disagreed with a certain renewal prediction in this website, if ever. It’s ratings are completely pathetic, even for NBC standards, and adding to that the age of the show, I wonder if NBC would not be better off with a rookie show that performed marginally better than it is doing. It just makes no sensse to me to see it as “certain”; there is, at the very least, doubt about it renewal.

  • Dan

    @Jamie – I predict that Smash will replace Parenthood since it will be done by February and since I believe that both Revolution and Chicago Fire will be around the entire season. NBC is doing good this season with some exceptions (Animal Practice) and I believe Chicago Fire will get a full season if it can hold up.

  • Dan S

    SVU is getting a bit long in the tooth. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the shows final season. NBC is on an upswing & I’m sure will want to try out some new shows on a very crowded schedule. CF will likely finish it’s initial 13 episode order & quietly go away. Looking forward to Do No Harm, Hannibal, Dracula & hoping additional episodes of Revolution are ordered.

  • SarahL

    I think that Chicago Fire is poorly cast. Other than Eammon Walker, everyone looks and acts like a model. Downright bad. I expected more from Dick Wolf than to stack his show with so many bad actors.

  • Lisa

    @Jimmy, since you asked, IMO, Chicago Fire sucks. It’s totally generic and is full of bad acting.

  • Petar Ivanov

    NBC are idiots. They must move Revolution at 8 pm in tuesdays or wednesdays next season after their BIG mistake to put it in 10. And after The voice is over in december NBC must air RVN episodes at 8 pm in monday in jan-feb.

    Big BIG NBC mistake. WIth 2.1 DVR rating wich beat all nbc dramas and sitcoms NBS was cable to kill everything and create second LOST. Now will be harder but still possible.

  • POI

    Good to see NBC going up this season actually they have good shows, and the best comedy this season which is Go On i wish they have success with these new shows and improve the netwrok for the future

  • Riff Rafferty

    Hey, guys, just a reminder that October is Anti-Bullying Month. And NBC, in joint partnership with The More You Know, wants you to know that bullying is wrong, mmm’kay? So please, please, please, if you see any impressionable children who might be different from you in any way, shape or form, do not bully them. Because bullying is bad. And diversity is WONDERFUL! And green is IMPORTANT! And YAY!GAY! Please visit the link below to watch this anti-bullying PSA that NBC thoughtfully created to let you know what you can do if you see a child being bullied.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/10/23/msnbc-audience-boos-9-year-old-girl-for-saying-she-thinks-romney-should-win-the-election

    Thanks, NBC! Together, we can all stop bullying dead in its tracks!

  • Dean_W

    There’s no chances for Chicago Fire to be canceled. It’s NBC #3 drama after Revolution and SVU.

  • capslocke

    I can definitely see Chicago Fire getting its back 9 after this weeks ratings uptick to a 1.8. Next week’s rating will probably be the final decision-maker on that one. NBC midseason will be a complete mess. They just have TOO MANY replacements. But to be fair 30 Rock and UAN are both only 13-episode orders, Rock Centre could move to Sundays @ 7 at any time, and Fridays @ 8 are currently open as is. Chicago Fire could crash and burn (no pun intended), and GWK will be gone very soon. Whitney probably won’t get a back 9. But even with all of these openings, NBC has a whopping 11-12.5 hours of non-scheduled midseason replacements (depending on whether TBL will be one hour or two, and whether Off Their Rockers will air back- to- back again like they did last year.).

  • Bobby C.

    Three episodes in and I’m already invested in the characters of Chicago Fire. I hope it stays on.

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