NBC: 'Chicago Fire' Cools To A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 23rd, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 21, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice canceled .65*
Up All Night :oops: 0.69
30 Rock final season 0.69
Guys With Kids :| :| :| 0.79
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.83
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.90
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.90
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.95
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.97
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.04
The Office final season 1.12
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.80

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Believe it or not, the 1.9 adults 18-49 premiere rating for Chicago Fire was above the 1.8 faux average I calculated for NBC scripted shows (faux, because it counts every show the same regardless of running time) two weeks ago. However last week's plunge to a 1.5 rating put it at just 88% of NBC's average for the week, that's in the "toss up" zone between renewal and cancelation for a rookie show. Stay tuned, it's still early and predictions can change weekly.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Anthony

    @capslocke

    Firstly I don’t think that having a lot of replacements means your midseason schedule is a mess. It’s all in how you schedule it. NBC showed last season that it is willing to go with an almost no repeat line up (which is a good idea for them, since they have so many low rated shows that repeat even worse). But if you really look at it they don’t have 11-12.5 hours of unscheduled replacements. They have plenty of slots available in midseason, they just haven’t assigned what will be where yet. They will have 4 hours free on Sundays (come February); 8p-9p on Wednesday (pending back orders for GWK and Whitney); 8p-9p on Thursday (and if they want/need to they can take Rock Center off the schedule for a while to free up space). That is at least 5, possibly 6 hours of free schedule space. Add to this the fact that they will need to put a replacement in for Parenthood (which is already almost halfway done with it’s 15 ep order) and Grimm (unless they order extra episodes) has already aired a third of it’s order (thanks to it’s summer run). In total that would use up 8 hours of their 12 hours of replacement shows, and this isn’t even taking into account whether any of those shows bomb out of the gate and need to get pulled.

  • were123

    I don’t mind to sound like a crazy fan, but if Up all Night and Guys with Kids pulls the same rating (this week for instance both got 1.4 rating), why is UAN certain cancellaion while GWK is a toss up? Aren’t shows in seconds seasons (albeit a shorted one) given just a little slack over failing rookies?

  • Jesse Cardoza

    Keep Chicago fire!!!!!!
    The first episode was a little bland but the last few episodes have been great.

  • omabin

    I have just realized that Chicago Fire will lead-out of the voice in a couple of weeks. That’s very good news. I hope the show makes good use of that lead-in and that it could rise (and retain) to some better numbers. It’s borderline as it is, but it could easily go above the line. I think that oddly enough the one to beat here is SVU. If it can beat SVU in the ratings, it will probably be renewed. The voice exposure is its best chance to do so. Cammon Chiago Fire!

  • tv#1

    For Mid-season NBC could try a schedule like this…

    Mon:
    Biggest Loser/The Voice
    Chicago Fire/Revolution

    Tue:
    Fashion Star/The Voice Results
    Betty White’s off their Rockers/Go On
    Ready for Love/1600 Penn
    Parenthood/Smash

    Wed:
    Save Me
    The New Normal
    Infamous
    Dracula/Crossbones

    Thur:
    Community
    Up All Night
    The Office
    Parks and Rec
    Law and Order:SVU

    Fri:
    Whitney
    Guys with Kids
    Grimm
    Hannibal

    Sun:
    Dateline
    Do No Harm
    Celebrity Apprentice

  • j

    Yes, I wonder what NBC’s midseason schedule will be like. They have a ton of stuff they can slot in which can replace many failing hours.
    Especially with Sunday going from blockbuster to typical NBC mediocrity, I wonder if they’ll try using Revolution to anchor a night so their only other success The Voice can anchor 2 new hours – perhaps Hannibal & Dracula? Wednesdays at 8 are pretty empty for scripted programming. Of course, Revolution might freefall to failure faster than Heroes, so that’d be risky, esp since it’s unclear how lead-in dependent its success has been.
    Of course, the safest and least interesting option would be giving Revolution and Smash the post-Voice slots.

    Personally none of NBC’s new shows interest me, but the public might feel differently.

  • Alicia

    I love Chicago Fire!!!!

  • jenn

    i hope they do not cancel Chicago fire. its a good show. but maybe if they change the time on it. since it on the same time a CSI. Chicago fire is a very good show and i love it. please don’t cancel it.

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