ABC: 'Don't Trust The B----' Opens At A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice canceled 0.63
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :| :| :| 0.66
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.67
Last Resort :oops: 0.67
Happy Endings :) :) :) :) 0.70
Scandal :| :| :| 0.77
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.79
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, but it didn't completely tank. It's currently in the "toss up" zone between renewal and cancellation, but that can change quickly with the results in coming weeks. The Cancellation Bear is content to play with shows early, and still devour them later.

With a premiere rating just a tenth higher, then why is Happy Endings likely to be renewed? Now that it's in season three, it needs a bit more than one full season to reach the magic 88 episodes for more profitable syndication. The show's a Sony/ABC co-production, and given the lengths that Sony has gone to in the past to get its shows to 88 episodes, it will take a major ratings disaster for them to fail to do that with Happy Endings.

The mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. They're doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the cancellation bear. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Tyler

    Likely to be renewed! Likely to be renewed!

  • Jack S

    Doesn’t Happy Endings need slightly more than one season to reach 88 episodes because of a shorter S1 run?

  • Jeff (Canada)

    This season will only put Happy Endings at 57 episodes, so they’re still 31 away from “The 88″. So I don’t think syndication should factor into that decision.

  • Tyler

    @Jack S

    ‘Til Death is syndicated at 81 episodes. It’s not a hard rule.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Correct on the HE episode count, I have edited.

    Irrelevant to the content of the post, given the current number of episodes, Sony will keep the show alive come (ratings) hell or high water.

  • RyanCanada

    Yah baby yeah….. loveeeee Happy Endings

  • HB

    5 smileys next to Revenge and Once :D

  • taylor

    hope you’re right re: happy endings. apartment 23 is great too and hope it can somehow be renewed.

  • Ricky

    Oh how I hope Last Resort can pick up some in the next few weeks. It is too awesome!

    Elimination Game: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-23/#comments Enjoy!

  • THE OLD MAN

    Sony will save HE as the bear licks his chops at Apt 23 (and LR & 666)

  • jT

    New girl will make sure happy endings has that disaster.

  • taylor

    PS do we know the episode order for apt 23? was it 13 + 6 leftover episodes from season 1 = 19 total?

  • Sel

    Bear, please don’t take away my B—- from me ;(
    And you Americans watch it, we Europeans depend on you!

  • Tyler

    @taylor

    Yes.

  • FlorianN

    Suburgatory is also certain to be renewed by May.

  • Tom

    I think HE crawls to syndication somewhere, but not necessarily on ABC. I’d still put it as “Bubble” for ABC itself.

    Apt 23 I’d put as likely to be canceled; unless Neighbors gets punted to Fridays, ABC has no room on T/W to launch any new comedies.

    Of course, that’s assuming DWTS airs as is next year, which is far from a guarantee. If ABC yanks it for Fall (or cuts out the Results show), that’s a lot of real estate ABC needs to fill somehow.

  • Loving Lost Girl

    @Ricky,

    Absoulutely the best new show on TV. A better time slot could help.

  • One

    This is OUTRAGEOUS! THAT EPISODE OF LAST RESORT WAS ONE OF THE BEST EPISODES OF TELEVISION I’VE SEEN THIS YEAR!!! And what do you do, America?! YOU REJECT THE SHOW FURTHER?!! We will ALL BURN in the fires of HELL unless you come into line and start watching the show NOW!!!

    You’ve been warned…

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Suburgatory is also certain to be renewed by May.”

    Indeed. As I often do at the upper end of the spectrum, I forgot to change the icons. Fixed.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Apt 23 I’d put as likely to be canceled”

    Storing that up for a future headline, during the upcoming lean weeks!

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