ABC: 'Don't Trust The B----' Opens At A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice canceled 0.63
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :| :| :| 0.66
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.67
Last Resort :oops: 0.67
Happy Endings :) :) :) :) 0.70
Scandal :| :| :| 0.77
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.79
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, but it didn't completely tank. It's currently in the "toss up" zone between renewal and cancellation, but that can change quickly with the results in coming weeks. The Cancellation Bear is content to play with shows early, and still devour them later.

With a premiere rating just a tenth higher, then why is Happy Endings likely to be renewed? Now that it's in season three, it needs a bit more than one full season to reach the magic 88 episodes for more profitable syndication. The show's a Sony/ABC co-production, and given the lengths that Sony has gone to in the past to get its shows to 88 episodes, it will take a major ratings disaster for them to fail to do that with Happy Endings.

The mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. They're doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the cancellation bear. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Doug

    While I hope that HE (and Apt23) rise in the upcoming weeks, I had completely forgotten the Sony connection with HE. That makes my day :)

  • Raykov

    Happy Endings will fight The Cancelation Bear with a Shark since one of their final credits go to Bear vs Shark :D

  • Ricky

    @Loving Lost Girl: ABC did screw it over royally with a historically bad timeslot, didn’t they? Now I’m scared Zero Hour might suffer the same fate.

  • Ram510

    Maybe Happy Ending will join Cougar Town on TBS and then maybe I can finally have the Cougar Town Happy Endings combo I’ve been waiting for!

    And they should just move Castle to Thursday at 8

  • Doug

    @Ram – That’s not a bad idea.

  • Glue

    You Guys DO Know That

    ‘Don’t Trust The B—- In Apartment 23′ & ‘Happy Endings’ are available for download before they air? That’s why I assume that the ratings are low.

    I downloaded ‘Don’t Trust The B—- In Apartment 23′ Today at 7:00 AM and I Live in EGYPT. Also ‘Happy Endings’ is available online every monday. So i don’t think ABC should rely on ratings too much.

  • Brian

    Glad to see OUAT and Revenge doing great. Scandal just got a full season order and I hope it gets 5 smilies soon :)

  • Kissan

    My ABC Schedule

    Sunday

    Once Upon A Time
    Revenge
    Scandal

    Monday

    Dancing With The Stars
    The Family Tools(new)
    How To Live With Parents Rest Of Your Life(new)
    Red Widow(new)

    Tuesday

    Dancing With The Stars Results
    Happy Endings
    Apartment 23
    Last Resort(new)

    Wednesday

    The Middle
    Last Man Standing
    Modern Family
    Suburgatory
    Zero Hour(new)

    Thursday

    Castle
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Nashville(new)

    Friday

    Shark Tank
    The Neighbors(new)
    Malibu Country(new)
    20/20

  • rob60990

    A 1.7 on abc for a season premiere is a disaster. Apartment 23 is dead.

  • joel

    Don’t look back at last week’s Apt 23 ratings. Walk away from the past in slow motion as it explodes behind you like in a John Woo movie.

  • Jimmy

    I am wishing for Don’t Trust the B will be renewed. It is such a down right raunchy, random hilarious sitcom! Happy Endings by far THE BEST out there right now! :) numbers WILL go up.

  • Steph

    I love Don’t Trust the B! Will be sad if it doesn’t make it.

  • dan

    Kill Van Der Beek, the show is supposed to be about the B being a B

  • Raykim

    i love my B- and please don’t take away her from me!
    i agreed about something here. i can download Apartment 23 today before its even aired!

  • Feedback

    ABC has a bunch of shows waiting for next season. I can see them canceling Last Resort, 666 and Scandal to bring out the new shows.

    However, I don’t think they’ll cancel Scandal. I just can’t see them canceling two Shonda shows in the same season. They rely too much on Grey’s Anatomy’s success to just piss her off like that.

    I can see Scandal surviving for two more seasons until it gets enough syndication numbers to be ready for the cancelation bear.

  • Daniel

    Last Resort is a type of show I usually watch. However, I knew it would get cancelled quickly so I didnt bother watching it. Actually thats a lie, I did watch the first episode on Hulu before it premiered on TV. I thought it was good but not great. I have been burned too often with these shows where there is a central mystery and you are only going to get the answer in the final season. Of course there is never a final season. This includes Eli Stone, Firefly, Journeyman, Terra Nova and Alcatraz. I am sure there are a half dozen other shows i started watching religiously that got cancelled too early. If they show up on TNT or other cable show, I will give a shot because they typically successful

  • Ian

    Cancelled for sure right now are 666, and LR which is sad because both are very well written. Apt 23 is to early to tell however I pray it gets renewed I love it! For HE I totally see TBS picking it up like CT last season. It would fit so well on TBS following CT. I fully believe Scandal will get renewed. It’s so stable and also ABC would not want to piss off Shonda by canceling two of her shows the same year. And unless it’s a total disaster next year I would suspect them to renew it a fourth and fifth year because I’m convinced GA will be ending next year and by the end of its 3rd season it would have 51 episodes and only need 37 to get syndication. And after its fourth only need 15 episodes. As you can tell I’m a dreamer I love the show and don’t wanna see it go. Just my Scandal dreams.

  • Sarah

    I’m surprised Scandal got a full season before Nashville

  • Bee

    deadline said last season that if ABC cancelled apt. 23, some cable channels were interested in picking it up. that’s all i read, but i hope it’s still true! i’d love to see it on TBS or FX.

  • Michael

    I really hope Happy Endings doesn’t drop this season. I love it too much to lose it to the bear.

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