Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Private Practice | canceled | 0.63 |
| Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 |  |
0.66 |
| 666 Park Avenue |  |
0.67 |
| Last Resort | |
0.67 |
| Happy Endings |  |
0.70 |
| Scandal | |
0.77 |
| Castle | |
0.79 |
| The Neighbors | |
0.85 |
| Nashville | |
0.88 |
| The Middle | |
0.98 |
| Suburgatory |  |
1.07 |
| Revenge | |
1.08 |
| Once Upon A Time | |
1.32 |
| Grey's Anatomy | |
1.41 |
| Modern Family | |
1.92 |
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Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, but it didn't completely tank. It's currently in the "toss up" zone between renewal and cancellation, but that can change quickly with the results in coming weeks. The Cancellation Bear is content to play with shows early, and still devour them later.
With a premiere rating just a tenth higher, then why is Happy Endings likely to be renewed? Now that it's in season three, it needs a bit more than one full season to reach the magic 88 episodes for more profitable syndication. The show's a Sony/ABC co-production, and given the lengths that Sony has gone to in the past to get its shows to 88 episodes, it will take a major ratings disaster for them to fail to do that with Happy Endings.
The mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.
Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. They're doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the cancellation bear. Read more about that here.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
-
- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.
@Glue,
I assume you’re refering to the fact that, since Happy Endings and Don’t Trust the B air on Sunday and Monday, respectively, in Canada, that they’re available to torrent before Tuesday. If so, that’ completely irrelevant to the discussion. ABC doesn’t make any money on those downloads, so if people are downloading instead of watching, that’s actually HURTING those shows chances of being renewed. Not that I think the number of downloaders is enough to have a real negative impact on the relative ratings of either show.
Predictions for Friday:
Last Man Standing-2.1
Malibu Country-1.9
How has Happy Endings even gotten to season 3? I’ve watched this show twice now (while waiting on Apt 23, which I LOVE), but Happy Endings just isn’t funny. Maybe it’s the cast I don’t like? Regardless, it’s not good.
With The Voice not returning until the end of March, ABC should bow out of the Tuesday 9PM comedy war and move Happy Endings and Apt 23 to Tuesday 8-9PM. These shows should be able to beat or at least not do too badly against Betty White and the FOX family comedies.
Because of Happy Endings and Apt 23′s move, The Family Tools and How To Live With Your Parents get delayed.
If Malibu Country tanks, one of these goes in to replace it in January. Then in April, ABC benches The Neighbors or Suburgatory for the one that’s still on the bench.
If Malibu Country does well, both comedies debut in April to replace The Neighbors and Suburgatory after they finish their seasons then.
That should solve most of ABC’s comedy issues as a lot of their issue is due to scheduling (especially Happy Endings).
The problem with 666 Park Avenue is that the show is on abc’s chick night for the most part. You have Once Upon A Time, and than Revenge after that. How many women are really into horror type of stuff? Not many. So, it’s on a terrible time. It’s a really good show, but it’s on the wrong night. It should be on a Friday at 7 pm which is more the syfy type of night with shows like Touch, Fringe, before CW had Smallville / Supernatural, etc.
A show like Happy Endings should be on Sunday instead of 666 Park Avenue, and again that should be moved to Fridays. Or another show could be Nashville with Revenge & Once Upon a Time.
@Randy
The majority of Horror films are watched by women. I would believe the same is true about horrorish tv shows. The problem isn’t the time slot. The problem is the fact that people just didn’t click with it.
Omg, the ONLY reason The Neighbors is doing well is because it’s in a safe slot, just like Suburgatory was last year, and now Suburgatory is in Happy Endings old slot and Now Happy Endings is in Last Man Standings old slot and Last Man Standing hasn’t aired yet and is possibly moving to graveyard Friday, and the cycle begins again, very predictable ABD!! American Broadcast Dummies!
Also @ Randy & Norman;
I’m a Man and I love horror shows, most women hate horror/sci-fi shows, I am also a
Man of this century and like shows like Revenge, so when I see a show like 666 Park Avenue with actors from Lost which really ended up pissing alot of folks off and Renee from Desperate Housewives and Wihlemina from Ugly Betty doing the same characters, guess what?… It’s boring!! Been there done that!
Apt.23s first episode was just plain bad. The second episode of season 2 was much better. The show is suffering from the loss of the asian girl at the end of the hall. Another visitor here pointed it out and I see the missing element. Season 2 is clearly going to be worse. They are showing more James Van Der whatever and his gay assistant too much. Before they were just a piece now they are a large chunk of the show. Its lost its way. I also watched the episode early so that availability is killing the ratings.
The B has been very funny so far this year. The HE/B hour is one of the funniest hours on tv. Hopefully they can pull it together.
@foulscat,
What… first episode of s2 was the best episode of the entire series.
Renew/ Cancel Index based upon A25-54 Demo (Network avg 3.171 for Scripted)
Show CI
Don’t Trust the B— 0.599
666 Park Avenue 0.65
Private Practice 0.678
Happy Endings 0.725
Last Resort 0.732
Scandal 0.812
Nashville 0.883
The Neighbors 0.883
Castle 0.899
The Middle 1.003
Revenge 1.041
Suburgatory 1.057
Once Upon A Time 1.192
Grey’s Anatomy 1.396
Modern Family 1.854
Same as above, but MF is excluded from calculations (Network avg falls to 2.915). MF skews ABC’s network avg by .256 points)
Show CI
Don’t Trust the B— 0.652
666 Park Avenue 0.707
Private Practice 0.738
Happy Endings 0.789
Last Resort 0.796
Scandal 0.883
Nashville 0.961
The Neighbors 0.961
Castle 0.978
The Middle 1.091
Revenge 1.132
Suburgatory 1.149
Once Upon A Time 1.297
Grey’s Anatomy 1.518
2 of my favorite shows, Suburgatory and Revenge with 5 smileys!!! Awesome!!!
Yes. I beat the renew/cancellation index. Cookie deserved.
Predicted Don’t Trust the B was dead like a week before this went up.
Toss up between renewal and cancelation for Don’t trust the b-. with a 1,2%? SERIOUSLY?
“Toss up between renewal and cancelation for Don’t trust the b-. with a 1,2%? SERIOUSLY?”
The ability to read dates is apparently lacking in some people.
The 1.2 rating was for last night. This was posted yesterday morning, which, since you seem to need some assistance, was before last night.
First of all, you don’t need to be rude, i didn’t have time to read all the article, i’ve just saw what was the status of show.
And secondly, even with last week episode (who did a 1,7%) this was a “toss up between reneval and cancelation”?
Don’t trust the b–. is the lowest show on ABC after Private Practice (which is cancelled)… don’t know why ABC will hesitate to cancel his lowest show even if his doing a 1,7%, so with a 1,2%… lmao.
(sorry for the possible mystakes i’ve made, i’m not english)
haha that woman in the photo must be a Last Resort fan and Walking Dead hater!
There’s no way the Middle would get canceled. It’s a great show, I usually hate family sitcoms, but I’m hooked.
I’m very worried about Happy Endings. Just thought I’d share that.