ABC: 'Don't Trust The B----' Opens At A "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice canceled 0.63
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :| :| :| 0.66
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.67
Last Resort :oops: 0.67
Happy Endings :) :) :) :) 0.70
Scandal :| :| :| 0.77
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.79
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.88
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.98
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, but it didn't completely tank. It's currently in the "toss up" zone between renewal and cancellation, but that can change quickly with the results in coming weeks. The Cancellation Bear is content to play with shows early, and still devour them later.

With a premiere rating just a tenth higher, then why is Happy Endings likely to be renewed? Now that it's in season three, it needs a bit more than one full season to reach the magic 88 episodes for more profitable syndication. The show's a Sony/ABC co-production, and given the lengths that Sony has gone to in the past to get its shows to 88 episodes, it will take a major ratings disaster for them to fail to do that with Happy Endings.

The mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. They're doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the cancellation bear. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Bee

    i wonder if ABC is actually gonna make changes in its mid-season schedule or if all this is just wishful thinking. if nashville keeps declining, i’m all in for a move. what’s there to lose? but there’s risks for moving it to either sunday or thursday. a sunday move puts it in danger of being hit hard by the award shows, while a thursday move messes with the heavily promoted greys-scandal block, which is slowly finding its footing.

    also, while i love nashville, its clear that people are yearning for more drama on the show. the promos make it sound so scandelous and bitchy, yet the show itself is much more subtle and not very dramatic.

  • Babygate

    I hope it does get cancelled. This show is terrible. The name is terrible. The jokes are terrible. The acting is terrible. Is just terrible. And the characters are not very likeable at all.

  • The End

    There’s a sad irony here.

    The 666 Park Avenue sets have been extensively damaged by flood water from Hurricane Sandy, as the sets were under at least 6 foot of water.

    Figured this was worth mentioning.

  • DKD

    Because 666 Park Avenue has a larger C3 lift than Last Resort, it is in front of Last Resort and not dead even with it.

  • Lynn

    DKD you need to factor in audience. I know audience numbers generally count less know with the emphasis on the 18-49 demo but it still counts for something. With Nashville’s numbers going down, it really is coming between a 3-show race for survival. Out of the dramas coming mid season, Red Widow will probably do better.Zero Hour might turn the 3-show race into a 4-show race. ABC might not being any of them back. The are ordering tons of scripts this year. I just hope Last Resort is saved by the fact that it is from SONY like Happy Endings.

  • The End

    @DKD

    Not to mention 666 Park Avenue will have to rebuild a lot of the damaged/destroyed sets.

    That said a few shows have had this problem. Could name some more but I only really care about this one.

    All costs money in the long run.

  • Justin121

    I’d like to add that ReVen8e keeps on delivering the goods with scenes such as the press conference scene and the balcony scene. Those are for the ages.

    Revenge is really going strong and hot hawt haaawt.

    Once Upon A Time is 1,000,000 times better this season than last. I’m glad they didn’t stall and are firing on all clynders this year.

    Both REVENGE and ONCEupon deserve better ratings.

    Glad to see both flourish creatively.

  • Chris

    Last Resort is a damn good show not getting the credit it deserves. It better stay or I am going to be seriously pissed.

  • omabin

    @Justin,

    I agree with both. Revenge and Once Upon a Time are on fire this season. I loved last season of Once Upon a Time, but more the 2nd half than the first. This season though, is just on fire, the storyline is flowing way better and the group of characters we have is just brilliant. Then there is Revenge, which has not lost its strenght at all. The ending of last episode was very unexpected for me and I don’t know how she will get out of it.

    So yeah, they are flourishing creatively and I am damn happy about them! Wish ratings were also high, but well, they are the first and third dramas on ABC, so they are pretty good.

  • Lynn

    Apparently Last Resort’s fate will be decided shortly after its next episode.

  • POI

    I want Happy Endings and Last Resort to be renewed if not by ABC by any cable network i think last resort will do much etter on cable and TBS can pick up Happy Endings just like they picked up cougar town if ABC decides to cancel it.

  • Irene

    I like Revenge/Scandal/Middle/DWTS/–ABC throws dramas out there and sees what sticks.

    That is why I never could figure DH staying so long. After 2 or 3rd season it was horrible.

    CBS/NBC has the better written deeper dramas. I always think soap opera as being connected to ABC.

  • James

    POSSIBLE 2012-2013 ABC SCHEDULE:

    Sunday
    8-OUAT
    9-Revenge
    10-new drama series

    Monday
    8-DWTS
    9-DWTS
    10-Castle

    Tuesday
    8-DWTS
    9-Suburgatory
    9:30-Happy Endings
    10-Nashville

    Wednesday
    8-The Middle
    8:30-The Neighbors
    9-Modern Family
    9:30-new comedy series
    10-new drama series

    Thursday
    8-Zero Hour or Red Widow (1 will be cancelled)
    9-Greys
    10-new drama series

    Friday
    8-Last Man Standing
    8:30-Malibu Country
    9-Shark Tank
    10-20/20

  • eridapo

    Renew /Can Index based upon results up to 11/4 (11/4 data is from prelim. rep). ABC Net avg 2.5214

    Show CI
    Don’t Trust the B— 0.575
    Happy Endings 0.635
    Private Practice 0.644
    666 Park Avenue 0.661
    Last Resort 0.690
    Last Man Standing 0.754
    Scandal 0.803
    Castle 0.825
    Nashville 0.853 (.771 if we exclude big premiere)
    The Neighbors 0.853 (.772 if we exclude big premiere)
    Malibu Country 0.873
    The Middle 0.999
    Suburgatory 1.044
    Revenge 1.097
    Once Upon A Time 1.355
    Grey’s Anatomy 1.438
    Modern Family 1.917

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