CBS: Unless Last Week Was A Fluke, 'Vegas' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.68
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Vegas :| :| :| 0.77
Partners :oops: 0.81
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.96
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.85

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While the Cancellation Bear was ready to ride out an entire season of "will CBS or won't they" cancel Vegas, a drop to just a 1.6 rating last week might substantially shorten that ride. Unless last week's rating was a fluke, the prediction for Vegas will change to "likely to be canceled" in next Tuesday's post.

It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel two of the following dramas CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas so they can have room to premiere 3 new dramas next fall. Read more about that here.

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, there's no chance it gets a second season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Nope

    come on MENTALIST please come back

  • jk

    Vegas and The Good Wife are gone. Fridays are a tricky animal. With Blue Bloods certain to be renewed, it needs a good lead-in (we saw what happened with Made in Jersey). CSI: NY at 9:00 is crucial to Blue Bloods’ success. If there’s a hope for keeping TGW, maybe Friday at 8:00? Finish it up and replace it with Undercover Boss midseason? That slot needs some kind of stability. The Mentalist is impressive for Sunday at 10:00, so it will stay around. Most importantly, CBS needs to stop premiering new shows on Friday. Friday should be a place for struggling shows that have a loyal base that will follow the show wherever it goes.

  • Blake Williams

    I like Vegas ……..It reminds of Longmire from A&E

  • Ricky

    Poor Vegas. Just when I started watching it, too! Hopefully it’ll pick up some. It’s enjoyable.

    Elimination Game: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-23/#comments Enjoy!

  • Rob

    @jk
    I could see The Good Wife moving to Fridays, but probably not at 8pm, considering the content. It gets pretty racy for 8pm. But I’d love if they could work it into Friday nights rather than cancel it. I think it could work well with Blue Bloods. Both shows that appeal to an older audience and have high total viewership.

  • Desperate Houseboy

    i hope TGW won’t get cancelled it’s the best drama on broadcast tv and it’s the only show on cbs that isn’t about cops.

  • THE OLD MAN

    “Vegas & The Mentalist go to the bear!” THAT IS MY FINAL ANSWER (this week anyway)

  • mak

    I cannot see how CBS can cancel the Mentalist. They move the program to Sunday night’s Death Valley and then complain when it doesn’t do well. Given it’s DVR numbers, it’s one of CBS’s most popular shows.

    I, for one, can’t figure out how NCIS Los Angeles stays on the air. It’s an awful show with really poor acting and writing. Yet that show is consistently high ratings.

    When are the networks going to finally adjust their expectations as to how these shows perform. If you go by number of viewers watching, the Mentalist and Hawaii 5-0 are two of CBS’s most viewed programs, despite the fact that their ratings are lower than they should be.

    Shows like The Good Wife and CSI:New York have seen their day. In my view, CSI Miami should have been renewed. That was a way better show than NY.

  • Mark Wilkins

    Vegas, TGW, and CSI NY will most likely be canceled so Partners is gone for sure. Give the mentalist and original CSI final seasons while Elementary is a toss-up.

  • dsm

    i hope the good wife will come back, it’s the best drama on network tv

  • CP

    I’m hoping it was a fluke. I really enjoy this show.

  • Ultima

    @mak
    I cannot see how CBS can cancel the Mentalist. They move the program to Sunday night’s Death Valley and then complain when it doesn’t do well

    The Mentalist would likely be in the same situation had it remained on Thursday nights. If you rank CBS’ veteran dramas, it’s in the same place it was last season.

    If you go by number of viewers watching, the Mentalist and Hawaii 5-0 are two of CBS’s most viewed programs, despite the fact that their ratings are lower than they should be.

    That is completely nonsense.

    Changing from Adults 18-49 to Adults 25-54 to Total Viewers has almost no impact on the ranking of CBS’ dramas.

  • One

    I kinda want this to be an ongoing trend. Vegas is highly disappointing, and more lifeless than a ripe corpse…

  • kul65

    @Ultima

    “The Mentalist would likely be in the same situation had it remained on Thursday nights. If you rank CBS’ veteran dramas, it’s in the same place it was last season.”

    It dropped roughly 5 tenths after moving from Thursdays. How is that “the same”?

    “That is completely nonsense.

    Changing from Adults 18-49 to Adults 25-54 to Total Viewers has almost no impact on the ranking of CBS’ dramas.”

    Not minding any particular demo, I think the first poster was referring to sheer viewing numbers, in which The Mentalist clocks in roughly the same numbers as Criminal Minds.

  • Kie

    Come on CBS give us that fifth season of TGW announcement!!

  • Dan S

    Vegas started a bit slow but I’ve really gotten to enjoy it. With that being said it’ll likely be bear chow in May unless it moves to Fri next year. I really don’t like Elementary even though I like its cast. I’m giving that show tossup at best since it keeps dropping every week.

  • Barbarossa

    @Kie

    Even though I’ve quit watching the show i do hope for atleast a partial 5th and final season, but i wouldn’t expect anything annoucement wise till april if we’re lucky

  • RG-X

    There’s only room for ONE Vegas TV show: CSI :)

    Goodbye – “vegas”

  • DC

    There’s NO WAY CBS will cancel The Good Wife before it moves to Friday at 9 and pairs it with Blue Bloods. The Good Wife’s current ratings would be great for a Friday night drama and the total viewership(which I know doesn’t mean much) will probably seal its renewal chances.

  • Jared

    I don’t think TGW will be cancelled this season. My bet is on Vegas and CSI NY..which barely made the cut last season.

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