CBS: Unless Last Week Was A Fluke, 'Vegas' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.68
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Vegas :| :| :| 0.77
Partners :oops: 0.81
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.96
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.85

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While the Cancellation Bear was ready to ride out an entire season of "will CBS or won't they" cancel Vegas, a drop to just a 1.6 rating last week might substantially shorten that ride. Unless last week's rating was a fluke, the prediction for Vegas will change to "likely to be canceled" in next Tuesday's post.

It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel two of the following dramas CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas so they can have room to premiere 3 new dramas next fall. Read more about that here.

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, there's no chance it gets a second season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @kul
    It dropped roughly 5 tenths after moving from Thursdays. How is that “the same”?

    It was the 7th highest rated renewed drama last season, it is the 7th highest rated non-freshman drama this season.

    Not minding any particular demo, I think the first poster was referring to sheer viewing numbers, in which The Mentalist clocks in roughly the same numbers as Criminal Minds.

    I don’t have the season viewership averages, but in terms of A25-54, there’s virtually no changing in the ranking of the dramas from A18-49, so it’s likely that going to total viewers will be similar.

    Also, based on the A18-49/A25-54 numbers, the outlier is not The Mentalist, it’s Criminal Minds (which apparently skews much younger than the other CBS dramas).

  • CBSviewer

    My guess is on The Good Wife, Vegas, Rules of Engagement, Elementary, Golden Boy (first time in the U.S. Television history CBS cancels every new dramas they have). Perhaps How I Met Your Mother and Two and a Half Men are in their final season. CBS will renew both of CSI: NY and The Mentalist for final season.

  • CBSviewer

    Sorry I forgot Partners because for me it’s already dead.

  • Ezduzit

    Partners will get full season order. You will see.

  • bluejoni

    Get rid of boring Vegas !! Get rid of CSI NY –should have been canceled last year !! Put The Mentalist back on a regular night !!!

  • City Kitty

    Vegas is entertaining. I like it and watch every week The acting is actually believable, unlike Revolution which just sucks.

  • MARSEPH

    Partners is a certain cancelation…thank God

    Vegas is also a certain cancelation in my book despite the back order for the remaining episodes.

    CSI:NY is dead as well…good run but its time

    The Good Wife will get its final season…I know many question its value in syndication but their are many female skewing cable nets willing to pay the bucks for this show….it could also go international. I expect more awards for the show and a syndication deal sometime this season

    The Mentalist is safe, solid numbers in a horrible timeslot…no problem

    Golden Boy has yet to premier so we cannot judge it accurately.

    HIMYM and 2.5 Men’s ratings are to good…they will return, the former may get tweeked (or spinned-off) due to its strong younger demo ratings, the latter now has a fresh spin on it…it could go on for years (sorry to burst your bubbles everyone)

  • Brian

    Vegas is great and needs to be renewed :)

  • Maria

    @kul @Ultima
    Also, based on the A18-49/A25-54 numbers, the outlier is not The Mentalist, it’s Criminal Minds (which apparently skews much younger than the other CBS dramas).

    Haven’t done the numbers, but it really looks like Criminal Minds is the youngest skewing CBS drama, PLUS, CBS is co-producer, and if I’m not mistaken, they get to reap the benefits from the US syndication while ABC Studios keeps the international ones.

  • Herb Finn

    Isn’t half the cast of CRIMINAL MINDS contracts coming due next season?

  • Feedback

    I think CBS should go ahead and cancel CSI: New York, The Good Wife and Vegas. The first two have their syndication numbers already so unless their companies just give them away for free, I think they should be done away with.

    CBS should have a Blue Bloods, The Mentalist, Hawaii Five-0 Friday line-up next season. None of them will blow away in the ratings, but they will give opportunities for other shows to use the non-Friday spots those shows currently have. All three will probably be canceled next season though so this will also open doors for a completely new Friday lineup in 2014.

  • mr.awesome

    I like the mentalist and would love to see it get another season but more importantly than that is a solid ending with Red John and for those of you who watched this week’s episode “Red Dawn” that might be happening soon.

  • Court

    I say this keep csiny and good wife they good show. But went csiny back for season have vary mad Canada.

  • Ming

    CBS really screwed the Mentalist
    It started off as an really interesting show, but jumped the shark some where in the second season.

    Then they kept changing the day the show aired, making it difficult to find and finally putting it on Sundays in the late evening spot. Not sure what they were expecting for the show in terms of ratings by doing what they did.

  • Maria

    @Herb
    Isn’t half the cast of CRIMINAL MINDS contracts coming due next season?

    Not half, nearly all! This can be fun (NOT!). Again, if I’m not mistaken, Thomas Gibson, Matthew Gray Gubler, Joe Mantegna, Shemar Moore & Kirsten Vangsness are/will be all re-negotiating their contracts… Ugh!

  • Bri

    @Herb Finn

    “Isn’t half the cast of CRIMINAL MINDS contracts coming due next season?”

    At the end of this season, Thomas Gibson(Hotch), Shemar Moore(Morgan), AJ Cook(JJ) and Kirsten Vansgness(Garcia) will have their contract end. Not sure but could be the same for Joe Mantegna (Rossi).

  • Bri

    @Maria

    MGG did sign a one years contract at the start of the season with an option for another year and Jeanne Tripplehorn got the same contract as MGG.

  • Maria

    Then it’s one less from my previous list. Yippee…?

    Thanks Bri! :)

  • simsalabim

    I hope the bear will catch “Mentalist” & “CSI NY”, i like the other two!

  • LisaNeedsBraces

    I’m going to predict Vegas, Elementary and CSI:NY as the cancellations. The Mentalist will be renewed as will The Good Wife for reasons everyone else has already gone over (though TGW will be renewed with the caveat that it’s the final season).

    Vegas doesn’t have the ratings and it’s also expensive to produce. The only reason it’s getting a full first season is because its premiere was the highest rated of CBS’s new shows and cancelling “the season’s highest rated new drama!” in the fall would be egg on the network’s face. Better let it just continue to decline quietly and opt not to renew it in May.

    Elementary drops every week and will likely drop even further in the spring, probably after being moved to another night. It’s already got a cushy time slot and a great lead-in, what more can be done for it? The press and ratings prove it’s not building an audience or any word-of-mouth buzz, so there’s no point in keeping it when next season they can try and launch another show in the post POI slot.

    CSI: NY – ’nuff said.

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