CBS: Unless Last Week Was A Fluke, 'Vegas' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.68
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Vegas :| :| :| 0.77
Partners :oops: 0.81
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.96
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.85

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While the Cancellation Bear was ready to ride out an entire season of "will CBS or won't they" cancel Vegas, a drop to just a 1.6 rating last week might substantially shorten that ride. Unless last week's rating was a fluke, the prediction for Vegas will change to "likely to be canceled" in next Tuesday's post.

It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel two of the following dramas CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas so they can have room to premiere 3 new dramas next fall. Read more about that here.

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, there's no chance it gets a second season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • tjw

    @Ming,

    The Mentalist aired on the same night for three straight years. They only moved it after the first season and this past season.

  • Brian

    Bold prediction. CSI will be down to one series next year and The Good Wife won’t be renewed. Vegas will move to Fridays to form a 1-2 block with Blue Bloods.

  • gustavo

    The Mentalist and The good wife should join Blue bloods on Friday and CSI NY should be cancel.Vegas and Partners will be cancel and H5-0 should be too,although i don’t think that could happen.

  • prison

    My guess:

    Cancellation: Vegas, Partners and The Mentalist. Renewal: CSI: NY, The Good Wife, Blue Bloods, Elementary, Hawaii 5-0, etc.

  • Michele

    Just out of curiousty what was the last new show to do really well on Friday nights?

  • Owen

    I guess Vegas will get axed, unless it makes a significant recovery.

    And then at least another drama to be cancelled from The Mentalist, TGW and CSI: NY. Have to assume CSI: NY is more likely to be renewed over TGW, because at the moment TGW does not have a syndication deal and CSI: NY, and they partly produce it. TM isnt owned by CBS at all, so they care less about TM.
    Elementary is also still dropping, so maybe they will join the mix as well.

  • A

    If the syndication gods mean anything, I’m sure TGW will be renewed (and moved to Fridays?). And I know this is fan bingo, but there’s that tiny allure of TGW being CBS’s only Emmy-quality show, even if that luster is fading.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “If the syndication gods mean anything, I’m sure TGW will be renewed”

    The syndication gods demanded a fourth season, but they may not demand a fifth for TGW.

  • Justin121

    THE GOOD WIFE

  • Justin121

    THE GOOD WIFE is the only show I care about!

    Great storytelling thrives for years to come, and shall end on a high note!

    (previous post was submitted by mistake).

  • CBSViewer

    My guess:

    Canceled: The Good Wife, Vegas, Partners and Elementary (maybe Rules of Engagement and Golden Boy).
    Renewed: CSI: NY, The Mentalist, Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods (and the over high rated shows).

    CSI: NY has sill the same ratings for 3 years and every new dramas are flops. The Mentalist will get a final Season and will be paired with Hawaii Five-0 on Sunday. The Good Wife is dead CBS had renewed the show next year to have the 88 episodes for syndication.

  • Sean

    I check ratings every week on this site and Vegas is pulling 10 million viewers overall which is way better than most shows so how’s it being considered for cancellation. It makes no sense. Either the cancellation bear or CBS are losing it.

  • MissJo

    @Sean

    The number of viewers is irrelevant. The 18-49 rating is what matters.

  • KJ Styles

    @Ultima- It was the 7th highest rated renewed drama last season, it is the 7th highest rated non-freshman drama this season.

    That’s still not considered “the same” 7th highest rated also included POI last year (which was new) and it includes Elementary and Vegas this year (which are new). I just think you’re spinning stuff because you don’t like The Mentalist. Honestly, of the four shows that Bill mentioned that are on the chopping block, I like it’s chances the most. I think they should move it to Fridays next season and cancel CSI NY. It would serve as a good lead in for Blue Bloods.

  • NE1

    Poor partners :-( Its number doesn’t seem that low considering it’s a cheap sitcom. There’s some chemistry in the cast I hope it makes it.

  • Holly

    @NE1,

    Poor partners :-( Its number doesn’t seem that low considering it’s a cheap sitcom.

    What makes you think Partners is cheap?

  • Jake

    I’d cancel: hawaii 5-0, good wife, csi:ny, partners & how I met your mother.
    csi:ny & how met your mother both have run their course plus their ratings keep going down. partners is a lost cause. good wife & hawaii 5-0 ratings r not gonna get any better, drop them.
    CBS needs to keep VEGAS, it gets good ratings every week & move the MENTALIST to a night where it’ll get it’s viewers back. That was STUPID to move it when it was doing so great.

  • Pako

    All three are very good shows… But if two of them REALLY must go, I would like The Good Wife to stay. I’m sad now…

  • The End

    @Holly

    It’s cheap, because he said it’s cheap naturally. :)

    This isn’t cable, if the ratings suck, being cheap won’t mean much.

  • NadjaGirl

    My ultimate favorite drama is The Mentalist, which I think does well in its time-slot with a solid fan base. Despite that I think the 5th season should be the final with a wrap-up of who Red John is. The level of the show dropped in season 4 and I’m not seeing it improve, being way too predictable and Jane is just not as high-speed entertaining as before his depression. Too bad they show it at the same time as 666 Park Avenue, but I still watch it every week. Elementary will probably be my substitute for TM

    The Big Bang Theory, Person of Interest, NCIS and HIMYM seem pretty safe, so besides that I’m happy!

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