CBS: Unless Last Week Was A Fluke, 'Vegas' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36*
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.68
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.74
Vegas :| :| :| 0.77
Partners :oops: 0.81
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.96
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.85

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While the Cancellation Bear was ready to ride out an entire season of "will CBS or won't they" cancel Vegas, a drop to just a 1.6 rating last week might substantially shorten that ride. Unless last week's rating was a fluke, the prediction for Vegas will change to "likely to be canceled" in next Tuesday's post.

It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel two of the following dramas CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas so they can have room to premiere 3 new dramas next fall. Read more about that here.

Why aren't Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods on that list? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, there's no chance it gets a second season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Charlie

    These are the two cancellations. Vegas and CSI: NY. Good Wife will last one more year, and Mentalist two.

  • Barbie

    I bet CSI:NY will stay and will be an early renewal. Its ratings are KILLING it this season. They’re MUCH better than last season, and they’re BETTER on a Friday than CSI on Wednesday on total viewers. Demo doesn’t get much better than CSI:NY is getting on Fridays and they know that. No way it’s out. No way. The Mentalist and The Good Wife (or Vegas) are out.

  • Barbie

    @MissJo, but you have to remember, Friday is the hardest night. CBS knows that, and it’s not every show that could do well on that. They have two shows that do crazy well for that night (CSI:NY and Blue Bloods). I don’t think they’re willing to risk it it right now and move it around. CSI:NY has this HUGE loyal fanbase. Would a new show like Vegas carry that around? Probably not.

  • Jon

    lol @ anyone thinking Elementary is going to get cancelled. They are gaining viewers by the weeks.

  • Nadine

    Yeah Vegas is starting to be very watchable after a questionable start. Chiklis is simply off the hook. But it’s not compulsive watching. I’m not too worried about TGW: it’s lasted this long. It’s the best drama on network, of course, but considering how dreadful all network shows are… As for the Mentalist, man, the sooner they put that thing out of its misery, the better. Bring back Bradley Whitford!!! Oh wait…

  • MissJo

    @Barbie

    I was answering about Vegas why even if it has more viewers than other CBS shows it still has good chance to be canceled because the focus is on the demo and not the number of viewers.

    I know that friday is a harder night and the rating expectation are not the same. I do watch CSI:NY and I wasn’t saying it will be cancel. I think it has a good chance to be renewed to be with BB on friday again next year. I don’t think CBS wants to premiere two new shows on friday.

    My choice for cancellation are Vegas and The Good Wife. Vegas because the rating are not very great and the Good Wife because it will have enough episode for syndication. The Mentalist will be renewed for the same reason for CSINY; to not premiere two new shows on the same night and also because CBS don’t make too many moves on its schedule.

  • Adam Decker

    If you ask me, CBS is too popular for its own good. I’ve dubbed this the CBS curse. If any of these great shows like The Mentalist or The Good Wife get cancelled, than I know why. But you’ll never know how screwy this network can get. All I know is that I wouldn’t want to be a midseason replacement on this network.

  • Keith

    If you love CSI you should love Vegas. I call it: CSI 1960

  • Anne

    i was just telling my husband the other day how it’s interesting that the other channels now have better tv “shows” than the “major” networks are providing.
    BTW….I really like Vegas! Hope it’s not cancellend. And good god….haven’t they ridden the CSI wave to DEATH yet???
    Anyway….after purchasing the seasons (on dvd) for shows like HOMELAND….and JUSTIFIED…..and SONS OF ANARCHY…..I am absolutely convinced that those producers could teach the networks a thing or two about how to put on a TRULY awesome tv series event. The writing….the acting….the plot lines……HEAD and TAILS above most anything the networks have come up with for YEARS.

  • Anne

    aLSO would like to add…the Mentalist is a good show….but they’re starting to go down that rabbit hole plot trap that Mulder and Scully were stuck with where the plot keeps coming back to “Red John” (or in Scullys case…the abducted sister alien thing).
    I really like the Mentalist…..but COME ON…..crack the red john thing or move on….it’s getting TIRED….

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