NBC: With Four Replacement Dramas Waiting, What's Going To Happen With 'Chicago Fire' & 'Law & Order:SVU'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.69
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.71
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.80
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.91
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.93
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 1.00
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.03
The Office final season 1.12
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.83

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With four dramas currently awaiting timeslots for mid-season and beyond (Do No Harm, Hannibal, Deception (was Infamous), Smash) what's NBC going to do with its mediocre rated dramas Chicago Fire and Law & Order: SVU?

My guess is that at current ratings levels this becomes a kick the can down the road situation, and NBC figures out ways to keep them both on the schedule through the end of the season. They'll either hold back some of the many unscripted shows they also have waiting, and/or pack their schedule with original episodes of their dramas and cut back on repeats.

The observant will note that Up All Night has been upgraded from "certain" to "likely to be canceled", and that Guys With Kids has been downgraded from "toss up" to "likely canceled". Recent ratings moves have put both shows in a similar ratings range, and likely a similar fate. It has nothing to do with the seemingly desperate move by NBC to add five multi-cam episodes of Up All Night to the season order.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • The Mike Factor

    @Bill
    Do Crossbones or Dracula have any affect on the current dramas standings? AND FIRST :D

  • Mary

    Do No Harm is already on the schedule for Sundays at 10 starting sometime in 2013.

    I expected Smash to take Revolution’s slot on Mondays because I thought Revolution would tank. However, now I don’t know what they’ll do.

    Parenthood has a short season so I predict that Hannibal will premiere in their slot come Spring.

    I also predict that one of the dramas will air in Rock Williams’ spot on Thursdays.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Do Crossbones or Dracula have any affect on the current dramas standings?”

    What or what? I don’t understand the question.

  • RyanCanada

    I Lke Chicago Fire, i hope they cancel LAO then, they should also cancel some of the thursday comedy’s and replace it with a drama, UAN and 30rock should be pulled already.

  • Nope

    LAW AND ORDER: SVU
    CHICAGO FIRE
    GO ON are the only shows that need to survive for my sanity level

  • Mark Wilkins

    cancel Chicago fire, get rid of two low rated comedies, and SVU final season to wrap it up

  • The Mike Factor

    @Bill
    Sorry! Dracula and Crossbones are two NBC midseason dramas with shorter orders (around 8 eps). Will NBC needing schedule space for them make Chicago Fire’s chances slimmer?

  • Tessa

    I never thought I’d see the day that NBC would be the best of the big four. Last year it had too few shows doing well, this year it has too many.

  • Ricky

    I hope last night’s RVN ratings come out soon. (For those who haven’t seen it yet, it is, as usual, AWESOME!!!! :D ) And if they went down, then Sandy’s at fault!

    Elimination Game: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-23/#comments Enjoy!

  • mictest123

    Are crossbones and dracula midseason dramas?…

  • richard

    chicago fire. first episode was terrible. second episode was great! havent seen the 3rd one yet but i will. it dramtically improved and i really liked episode 2. i hope it survives for the 2nd season

  • Michael

    Is it possible that one of the dramas will be moved to Friday at 8 to back up Grimm?

  • TVDude

    They could kick Dateline off of Friday and have SVU or Chicago Fire follow Grimm. I could see something like that happening, since the original L&O aired there for a while. I think Chicago Fire might get more episodes, but not nine and go on hiatus. It will then come back after one of the other dramas tumbles.

    No matter what, I think NBC should move SVU off of Wednesdays and reinvent the night. The ratings are too low to provide any form of a good lead in. Now, if it somehow were to pull the same ratings it has now on Friday at 10pm, it would be certain for renewal (Compared to the likely it has now, but that could change by the end of the season).

  • ….

    Monday:
    8-9PM: The Voice
    9-10PM: Mockingbird Lane
    10-11PM: Revolution

    Tuesday:
    8-10PM: The Voice
    10-11PM: Hannibal

    Wednesday:
    8-8:30PM: Animal Practice
    8:30-9PM: Community
    9-9:30PM: Go On
    9:30-10PM: Save Me
    10-11PM: Law & Order: SVU

    Thursday:
    8-9PM: The Biggest Loser
    9-9:30PM: 1600 Penn
    9:30-10PM: Parks & Recreation
    10-11PM: Parenthood (or Crossbones)

    Friday:
    8-8:30PM: Up All Night
    8:30-9PM: The New Normal
    9-10PM: Grimm
    10-11PM: Dracula

    Sunday:
    8-9PM: The Celebrity Apprentice
    9-10PM: Fashion Star
    10-11PM: Smash

  • KS

    @Ricky

    Haven’t watched the episode. But any huge revelations last night?

  • Mary

    @ …

    You forgot about Do no Harm and Mockingbird Lane doesn’t exist anymore.

  • The Old Woman

    I wish they would put one of those new dramas on Friday’s at 8.00 to give Grimm a good lead in. I would love it if that drama was Hannibal, the only other new show I am looking forward to now that Last Resort has bombed. A Hannibal/Grimm combination on Friday would make me extremely happy!

    Also Grimm just has 22 episodes and it will be probably be done by February/March if they don’t take any breaks in between. So maybe NBC plans to air one of these shows in Grimm’s spot after Grimm is done?

  • Derrick

    SVU is a great show, why do you people want it cancelled ?

    if you dont like it, then dont watch.

  • ….

    @Mary
    I know about Do No Harm….that’s the kind of schedule I’d like to see, though. :)

  • THE OLD MAN

    The bear will definitely have some prime beef cake w/ CF, but I think SVU will be saved

    They should be confident enough to lose Rock Centre & put an hour-long drama there
    and they also have that hour lead in from Grimm just sitting there

    There’s also the Parenthood hour open for another

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