NBC: With Four Replacement Dramas Waiting, What's Going To Happen With 'Chicago Fire' & 'Law & Order:SVU'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.69
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.71
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.80
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.91
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.93
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 1.00
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.03
The Office final season 1.12
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.83

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With four dramas currently awaiting timeslots for mid-season and beyond (Do No Harm, Hannibal, Deception (was Infamous), Smash) what's NBC going to do with its mediocre rated dramas Chicago Fire and Law & Order: SVU?

My guess is that at current ratings levels this becomes a kick the can down the road situation, and NBC figures out ways to keep them both on the schedule through the end of the season. They'll either hold back some of the many unscripted shows they also have waiting, and/or pack their schedule with original episodes of their dramas and cut back on repeats.

The observant will note that Up All Night has been upgraded from "certain" to "likely to be canceled", and that Guys With Kids has been downgraded from "toss up" to "likely canceled". Recent ratings moves have put both shows in a similar ratings range, and likely a similar fate. It has nothing to do with the seemingly desperate move by NBC to add five multi-cam episodes of Up All Night to the season order.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • HGFM

    @ Derrick

    SVU was a great show once but has not been so for years. The writing is basically retreads of previous episodes. It is dull, predictable and filled with cliched characters. And it is so full of factual misinformation that the producers should be ashamed of themselves.

  • k:Alex

    SVU is international a big show, so, CF will be the first.

  • scifi

    Mockingbird Lane will be not on until next fall (if ever). Fuller said it on the interview.

  • Dan S

    I can easily seeing Smash & Deception scheduled on Wed 9-11pm. SVU replaces Rock Center to Thur & Chicago Fire is gone. If NBC wants to be bold move The Voice to Tues & Wed & on Mon move Revolution to 9pm. They can schedule a couple new shows a 8 & 10pm on Mon.

  • Nikki

    I thought SVU was in better position than Parenthood..so why the title of the article?

  • Jared

    Any chance NBC might use Hannibal or Do No Harm as a companion show to Grimm on Friday nights?

  • Mary

    Out of the two, I think Hannibal would work better as a companion to Grimm, but I don’t think that’s a good idea. However, if there is a mid-season show called Dracula, that’d fit with Grimm.

  • Bobby

    I really hope Chicago Fire lasts more than one season because I’m surprisingly loving it a lot. Wish it could get a post-Voice spot once while it’s still early along in its season to see if it could pick up any new viewers.

    Personally, I would just move The Biggest Loser or Fashion Star to Thursdays from 8-9 and then that would open up a different timeslot for a drama or two comedies to go in where the competition wouldn’t be so brutal.

  • Cristi

    Deception wtf, i liked more Infamous why they change it?

  • Paul

    I think they will move Revolution to Thursdays at 10 to replace Rock Center. Plus if Revolution does well at Thursday at 10:00 they can finally have something successful there and introduce something new at 10 in the fall to have The Voice lead in. They want Hannibal to do well so look for that to be on Monday at 10. Hannibal is only doing 13 episodes a season so if it is successful I would look for that to stay during midseason/spring time. Chicago Fire got a couple more episodes to fill time. Parenthood also ends early so I would look for replacements for them. I think The New Normal would be a really good lead in for Smash. So the schedule would look something like this.

    Sunday:
    8:00 Fashion Star
    9:00 The Apprentice
    10:00 Infamous/Do No Harm

    Monday:
    8:00 The Voice
    9:00 The Voice
    10:00 Hannibal

    Tuesday:
    8:00 The Voice
    9:00 Go On
    9:30 The New Normal
    10:00 Parenthood (finishes)/Smash

    Wednesday:
    8:00 Whitney
    8:30 Guys With Kids/Save Me (Or Up All Night Replacement)
    9:00 Law & Order SVU (I don’t think any new show could rate better)
    10:00 Chicago Fire (Finishes)/Do No Harm/Infamous

    Thursday:
    8:00 1600 Penn
    8:30 Up All Night/Save Me
    9:00 The Office
    9:30 Community
    10:00 Revolution

    Friday:
    8:00 Dracula
    9:00 Grimm
    10:00 Dateline

  • Jan

    Chicago Fire has gotten better with each episode. Hopefully they won’t cancel it yet.

  • Oliver

    At what point do NBC need to make a decision on ordering additional episodes of Community/Whitney? GWK too, although they have additional scripts.

  • Jay

    Chicago Fire is great, better every week. Is doing okay. Wonder how it will do after the two hour episode of The Voice next week. Predict it will certainly surpass Nashville in the next few weeks or so.

  • Ultima

    @…
    Monday:
    8-9PM: The Voice
    9-10PM: Mockingbird Lane

    Tuesday:
    8-10PM: The Voice

    Oddly enough, Mockingbird Lane isn’t the most ridiculous part of your schedule.

  • Bobby

    I feel like SVU will make it to next season because it’s SVU and I bet they would give it a ‘final farewell season’.

  • Ricky

    @KS: Nothing terribly big. Just reunions and flashbacks.

  • steven

    Do No Harms already on Sundays at 10

    Deception could probably go Fridays at 8. It doesn’t seem like that huge of a show and it could get a small following big enough for fridays.

    Hannibal should probably go Tuesdays at 10, it seems like it could be a hit, and giving it a slot on the same night as the voice seems like a good idea.

    Smash, i dont have any idea where it could go? Maybe Thursdays at 10? It cant go on wednesdays because of the direct competition with Nashville.

    If Dracula or Crossbones go onto the schedule, it would make sense to put them on in Revolutions time slot in the spring(after Revolution is over), but i feel like they might hold Dracula till next season, and premiere Crossbones to see if its worth making more episodes

  • K

    My midseason schedule prediction:

    MONDAYS
    8-10PM: The Voice
    10-11PM: Smash

    TUESDAYS
    8-9PM: The Voice
    9-9:30PM: Go On
    9:30-10PM: The New Normal
    10PM: Parenthood

    WEDNESDAYS
    8-8:30PM: Whitney
    8:30-9PM: Save Me
    9PM: Law & Order
    10PM: Deception (f.k.a. Notorious and Infamous)

    THURSDAYS
    8-8:30PM: Up All Night
    8:30-9PM: Community
    9-9:30PM: The Office
    9:30-10PM: Parks and Rec
    10-11PM: Revolution

    FRIDAYS
    8-9PM: Grimm
    9-10PM: Dracula

    SUNDAYS
    8-9PM: The Celebrity Apprentice
    9-10PM: Do No Harm
    10-11PM: Hannibal

  • Ann

    Leave Monday as it is and let Revolution build enough so that it can be the Wednesday anchor next season.

    Deception replaces Parenthood on Tuesdays at 10, if they don’t extend Parenthood’s order. If they keep Parenthood on, put Deception on Sundays at 10.

    Hannibal can replace Chicago Fire on Wednesdays at 10. It’s somewhat compatible with SVU (and probably too high-profile to be paired with Grimm on Friday), and it’s probably a 10pm show (however much stock you put in the idea of certain shows being X o’clock shows). If NBC feels very confident about the show and wants to capitalize on a fading Criminal Minds, put it on at 9 and bump SVU back to 10.

    Smash goes on Thursdays at 10 because it’s probably the mid-season show most compatible with the comedies, with a big marketing campaign to back up the show’s revamp.

    Do No Harm goes on Sundays at 10. It could also be bumped to Fridays at 8 if they want to give Grimm a lead-in. Sundays will then be all-reality or reality plus Deception.

  • Silvio

    Thursday is NBC’s graveyard, Chicago Fire or other bomb goes to Thursday 10PM after elections, certainly NBC won’t put hit like Revolution there.
    Or Smash. NBC brass likes it, so it’s gonna get Tuesday 10PM slot as Parenthood (again) has shortened order.
    Dracula and Crossbones are cheap co-productions (The Firm style) with not much of a buzz. Those shows are headed for summer run, Fridays at best.
    Not so Hannibal, NBC hopes are higher for that show. It remains to be seen if they schedule it Wednesday 10PM or they’ll relocate Revolution
    to Wednesday (hoping it can survive in spring on its own) and try to give Hannibal as much boost as possible with The Voice lead-in.
    Do No Harm is already scheduled for Sundays 10PM, Deception (FKA Infamous) is a bench player, it will replace some flop.

    Only real question is if in midseason Revolution keeps post-Voice slot, or Hannibal gets it.

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