NBC: With Four Replacement Dramas Waiting, What's Going To Happen With 'Chicago Fire' & 'Law & Order:SVU'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.69
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.71
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.80
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.91
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.93
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 1.00
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.03
The Office final season 1.12
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.83

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With four dramas currently awaiting timeslots for mid-season and beyond (Do No Harm, Hannibal, Deception (was Infamous), Smash) what's NBC going to do with its mediocre rated dramas Chicago Fire and Law & Order: SVU?

My guess is that at current ratings levels this becomes a kick the can down the road situation, and NBC figures out ways to keep them both on the schedule through the end of the season. They'll either hold back some of the many unscripted shows they also have waiting, and/or pack their schedule with original episodes of their dramas and cut back on repeats.

The observant will note that Up All Night has been upgraded from "certain" to "likely to be canceled", and that Guys With Kids has been downgraded from "toss up" to "likely canceled". Recent ratings moves have put both shows in a similar ratings range, and likely a similar fate. It has nothing to do with the seemingly desperate move by NBC to add five multi-cam episodes of Up All Night to the season order.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Guilherme

    #SaveChicagoFire *-*

  • CBSviewer

    @ K:Alex
    You Are right SVU is an international hit. I live in France and here the 13th season is watched by 3 million viewers and it airs on Monday at 11. :)

  • Ram510

    NBC needs to hurry up and give Guys With Kids a full season, it’s a great show!!! But I’m sure they’re waiting to see how it does after Whitney. But it sucks that they are going to air a new episode on Halloween to then take a week off, tough timing

  • Teddy

    After last week’s growth I don’t see CF going anywhere.

    NBC finally has fixed their procedural problem as they made a great scheduling probably one of the best season right now putting SVU next to CF.

    I think NBC should leave that combo untouched for the next couple of seasons then cancel SVU and have CF spin-off a police procedural about the Chicago police department.

    Where NBC puts its new dramas is anybody’s guess but at least Infamous should be given a post-Voice spot I’m thinking Tuesdays at 9pm.

  • Teddy

    @ Rams510

    Yeah to me Guys with Kids and Whitney would be great for NBC to keep around after this season, its possible that both comedies can grow into more bigger sitcoms. It will be interesting to see how GWK does after Whitney as GWK was putting up solid ratings before AP started bringing it down to its level.

  • j

    “cancel Chicago fire, get rid of two low rated comedies, and SVU final season to wrap it up”

    Yeah, pretty much. SVU going to such lows after being at such highs, even semi-recently, is sad. I used to be a fan.

  • Brian

    Glad to see Revolution and Grimm still the top 2 for NBC I hope the hurricane did not affect Revolutions top ratings.

  • Alijah

    It’s worth noting that when SVU aired on Fridays a couple years ago, it received the highest ratings it has ever had. I say move it back to Fridays after Grimm.

  • Pepper

    I’d love to see SVU get a final season next year to wrap it up! Hopefully Chris will come back for a few eps!

  • Jared

    @Teddy

    Unfortunately..Deception(infamous)won’t have that plumb Voice lead in. Deception airs Monday at 10pm after The Biggest Loser.

  • JAY

    WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IS REALLY TOUGH FOR NBC. WHITNEY SHOULD HAVE DECENT RATINGS AND GWK WILL BENEFIT FROM THAT. WE NEED TO GET MORE FAMILY COMEDIES BACK ON THE AIR. I WATCHED THE CLIPS ON NBC.COM FOR 1600 PENN AND SAVE ME. OMG THAT IS WHAT NBC PLANS TO PUT ON THE AIR. BOTH ARE HORRIBLE

  • Charlie

    Bill, Dracula and Crossbones are two other midseason dramas NBC has

  • mr.awesome

    Chicago fire is new, Law and Order SVU is a veteran if its a decision between the two SVU should get a final season. Who knows maybe both shows could survive with all those sitcoms finsihing, getting canceled, and likely to be canceled that could clear up some time.

    shows that have to survive for me to still love NBC: Grimm, Revolution, Go On, Community
    my shows are looking good (thank god) expect for community which hasn’t aired yet this season

  • bsp

    I hated the Chicago Fire pilot, but the subsequent episodes were better, and the ratings actually went up from 1.5 to 1.8, yes? Way too soon to pull it, IMO.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, Dracula and Crossbones are two other midseason dramas NBC has”

    Ah, they had escaped me because they weren’t in the initial 2012-13 announcement. I (obviously) have no idea what’s up with them, which isn’t unusual. We really only start paying attention to shows once they air.

  • Nevid

    My midseason schedule:

    Monday
    8-10PM: The Biggest Loser/The Voice
    10-11PM: Deception/Revolution

    Tuesday
    8-9PM: Betty White’s/The Voice
    9-9:30PM: Go On
    9:30-10PM: The New Normal
    10-11PM: Parenthood/Smash

    Wednesday
    8-8:30PM: Whitney
    8:30-9PM: Save Me
    9-10PM: Law and Order:SVU
    10-11PM: Hannibal

    Thursday
    8-8:30PM: Community
    8:30-9PM: Parks and Recreation
    9-9:30PM: The Office
    9:30-10PM: 1600 Penn
    10-11PM: Crossbones

    Friday
    8-9PM: Dracula
    9-10PM: Grimm
    10-11PM: Do No Harm

    Sunday
    8-10PM: Ready for Love
    10-11PM: The Celebrity Apprentice

    Cancelled in fall:
    Animal Practice
    Guys With Kids
    Up All Night
    Chicago Fire

  • tjw

    Looks like NBC has made their moves:

    Monday (Jan-Mar 18):

    8-10 – The Biggest Loser
    10-11 – Deception

    Monday (Mar 25-):

    8-10 – The Voice
    10-11 – Revolution

    Tuesday (Jan-Mar 19):

    8-9 – Off Their Rockers
    10-11 – Smash

    Tuesday (Mar 26):

    8-9 – The Voice
    10-11 – Smash

    Thursday:

    8-8:30 – Community
    8:30-9 – Parks & Rec
    9-9:30 – The Office
    9:30-10 – 1600 Penn

    Sundays are still kind of a mess, with only Celebrity Apprentice and Ready for Love set to air and neither of those until March.

  • JR

    SVU hasn’t aired on Friday nights since seasons 2-4. It would not get those kind of ratings now. :)

  • senor chang

    Any chance SVU goes to Thursday@10 to open a slot for a new drama on Wednesday?

  • Mark Milton

    @Nope
    LAW AND ORDER: SVU needs to be cancled, the most sexist and misandrist TV show in the history of TV shows.

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