NBC: With Four Replacement Dramas Waiting, What's Going To Happen With 'Chicago Fire' & 'Law & Order:SVU'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.69
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.71
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.80
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.91
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.93
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 1.00
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.03
The Office final season 1.12
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.83

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With four dramas currently awaiting timeslots for mid-season and beyond (Do No Harm, Hannibal, Deception (was Infamous), Smash) what's NBC going to do with its mediocre rated dramas Chicago Fire and Law & Order: SVU?

My guess is that at current ratings levels this becomes a kick the can down the road situation, and NBC figures out ways to keep them both on the schedule through the end of the season. They'll either hold back some of the many unscripted shows they also have waiting, and/or pack their schedule with original episodes of their dramas and cut back on repeats.

The observant will note that Up All Night has been upgraded from "certain" to "likely to be canceled", and that Guys With Kids has been downgraded from "toss up" to "likely canceled". Recent ratings moves have put both shows in a similar ratings range, and likely a similar fate. It has nothing to do with the seemingly desperate move by NBC to add five multi-cam episodes of Up All Night to the season order.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Any chance SVU goes to Thursday@10 to open a slot for a new drama on Wednesday?”

    Not anytime soon.

  • Randy

    I think a big problem with NBC and Fox is that they run too much of that Voice, X-Factor, and America’s Got Talent on multiple days. Those shows really interrupt the regular scheduled programming. Than, nbc and fox can’t understand why they get such low ratings on some shows. People were watching certain shows, and than they start moving them around, or just not airing them for weeks at a time. It’s too hectic. Have those shows at specific timeslots instead of moving them around.

    This is a different network, but I also think it’s really dumb to have a show start in November. People started watching shows in September, and than all of a sudden you have brand new shows in November. The people for the most part are just going to watch those September shows because they are hooked on them. I’m talking about Last Man Standing & the Reba show on ch 7 on Fridays. How many people are going to stop what they were watching for 2 months, and than watch those 2 shows. It’s really stupid. Mid-season shows make more sense because people know that some shows do start in Jan whereas many people don’t think that any show would start in November.

  • Michael

    Or…maybe they cancel a drama and 2 comedies??

    In other words…UAN, Chicago Fire, and GWK…all CANCELLED.

    Yea…that makes a hell of sense :)

    Also..something is telling me that “Deception” might become a Fall 2013 show.

    Problem Solved :)

  • Michael

    SVU will be back next season…but I have a funny feeling by then we’ll all know it will be the “Final Season” so it can go away with a proper ending.

    I cannot see them doing to SVU what they did to Law and Order, especially since it’s the last one….I see a lot of the older stars making “guest appearances” in that “Final year” in 2013-14.

  • Justin121

    One thing I know for sure:

    Chicago Fire is NOT getting cancelled.

    NBC has struggled for so long to find any kind of decently-performing drama, now they have SVU, Smash, Revolution, and Chicago Fire.

    SVU: old
    Smash: unproven
    Revolution: unproven

    Chicago is the only young drama that has proven it can be a success.

  • hmyers

    I do not understand all the bashing of shows that a person does not like/watch. As a TV viewer I cannot like a show and choose not to watch it. However, what I like more than anything is having choices and not only being left with re-runs. For what it is worth, I am happy there are new shows to come in the spring, this way maybe I will not be left with as many re-runs.

  • Bob

    I REALLY hope that Guys with Kids make it through the season at least. I wish people would watch it. It is a very funny show.

  • Ultima

    @Justin
    Chicago is the only young drama that has proven it can be a success.

    And it did so with only three low-to-average rated episodes!

  • Miguel

  • Carm

    NBC needs to leave well enough alone. STOP ruining shows! Check out on TV guide how much people Love Chicago Fire.

    Chicago Fire and Law and Order SVU should stay right there.

  • Amy

    Could they cancel SVU by midseason then? I thought it had a 23 season ordered?

  • Amy

    *23 episode season

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Could they cancel SVU by midseason then?”

    No. No chance of that.

  • Amy

    I really think it deserves to be moved to a 10pm slot. I don’t think it matters which day, but it needs to be at 10pm if it has any chance of getting a proper final season. People just don’t want to watch it at 9, which is fair enough.

  • Networkman

    Starting in January, NBC should start the billing of Law & Order:SVU’s final season. Let the viewers know the final 12 episodes will be airing. I feel Chicago Fire will be coming back as long as it keep numbers similar to SVU. NBC would allow that to be a gift to Dick Wolf. Lastly, why is Parks & Rec most likely to be renewed. It isn’t doing any better than The Office.

  • Jo B.

    @Derrick – it WAS a great show. But now it isn’t. The ratings have gone down steadily since Chris Meloni left when his contract negotiations fell. And what made that show great was his partnership as Elliot with Mariska’s Olivia. I still watch but it is NOT the same and I am sad to see it tanking slowly. I’d rather see get cancelled with dignity than go out because people want the kicked off the air.

    Having said that, if they are going to cancel I believe they deserve to have the show wrapped up.

    As for Chicago Fire – they need to give it to a chance. I mean it can be good. But maybe having it go after SVU which is in its last legs is not the best idea.

    I think Grimm should be moved off Fridays. Personally it is one of the best shows out there – and it deserves a better audience than the stay at home Friday ones only.

  • Moe

    The only shows on NBC I care about are Go On, for me, because it’s one of my favorite new shows this season. Adorable! And Grimm, for my mom, because she loves it. And luckily, both are green smiley faces, yay!

  • toadytoady

    Wow. Looks like a real campaign to scrap SVU and save Chicago Fire.
    Didnt help LOLA though did it? I dont think networks make decisions on the strength of anonymous people on sites who could be anyone or, in fact, the same few people just going on and on. fun though.

  • Hime

    They should move SVU back to its perch at 10pm on Wednesdays and give it a final season. (Preferably dragging Christopher Meloni and every single great L&O character that is still living back and systematically giving them their moment.) I actually enjoyed the end of the mothership in that it was all in a days work but I still would like a great send off for L&O series.

    Chicago Fire is kinda meh imo. I’m not attached to it as much as sh am with L&O since that show has been running close to my entire life in some form.

  • Anthony

    SVU: old
    Smash: unproven
    Revolution: unproven

    Chicago is the only young drama that has proven it can be a success.

    I literally don’t know where to even begin with how wrong this statement is. So because of that I won’t.

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