NBC: With Four Replacement Dramas Waiting, What's Going To Happen With 'Chicago Fire' & 'Law & Order:SVU'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 30th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 28, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.69
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.71
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.80
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.91
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.93
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 1.00
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.03
The Office final season 1.12
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.83

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With four dramas currently awaiting timeslots for mid-season and beyond (Do No Harm, Hannibal, Deception (was Infamous), Smash) what's NBC going to do with its mediocre rated dramas Chicago Fire and Law & Order: SVU?

My guess is that at current ratings levels this becomes a kick the can down the road situation, and NBC figures out ways to keep them both on the schedule through the end of the season. They'll either hold back some of the many unscripted shows they also have waiting, and/or pack their schedule with original episodes of their dramas and cut back on repeats.

The observant will note that Up All Night has been upgraded from "certain" to "likely to be canceled", and that Guys With Kids has been downgraded from "toss up" to "likely canceled". Recent ratings moves have put both shows in a similar ratings range, and likely a similar fate. It has nothing to do with the seemingly desperate move by NBC to add five multi-cam episodes of Up All Night to the season order.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Heather

    SVU should have quit 3-4 seasons ago. It seems so stale compared to it’s early years and the ratings are pretty pathetic for what once was a good show. Chicago Fire is a really lame soap opera.

  • ….

    This is based on my opinion and not by ratings/viewers.
    Renew:
    – Animal Practice (Uncancel!)
    – Community
    – Go On
    – Grimm
    – Parenthood
    – Parks & Recreation
    – Revolution
    – Smash

    Add:
    – Mockingbird Lane
    – Hannibal
    – 1600 Penn (already added)
    – Dracula
    – Save Me
    – Crossbones
    – County (Jasom Katims! More from him :D)
    – Friday Night Dinner (Greg Daniels!)

    Cancel all prime time reality shows except The Voice and The Biggest Loser.

  • Mitholas

    So, does Parenthood’s current status mean there’s a chance more episodes will be ordered for this season? I adore the show and I’m happy as long as it comes back. But if it’s now reached a point where it would make no sense for NBC not to bring it back (whereas I think it’s been in the ‘likely to be renewed’ bracket for several seasons in a row), could that mean more episodes, or will that just cause more scheduling problems?

  • a p garcia

    I know what they can do and that is have more episodes on hand rather than have a 4 month haitus like in Revolution.

  • Charlie

    Heres what I want from NBC
    Renew
    Go On
    The New Normal
    One more season of 30 Rock
    Grimm
    Parks and Rec
    Parenthood
    Cancel
    The Office (HATE IT)
    L&O: SVU
    Chicago Fire
    Animal Practice
    Guys With Kids
    Up All Night

  • Kyle

    Why is there not a renew/ Cancel index for cable networks like FX or AMC?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Why is there not a renew/ Cancel index for cable networks like FX or AMC?”

    The cable network process is completely different than broadcast, and doesn’t lend itself to predicting with our methods.

  • Kyle

    oh ok thank you for the fast response.

    I’ve become addicted to checking on Walking Dead, Grimm, Revolution, Guys with Kids, and Last Resort ratings.

    You guys do a good job here.

  • KJ Styles

    How is Parenthood a certain renewal and SVU only a likely renewal when SVU is higher rated?

  • Anthony

    How is Parenthood a certain renewal and SVU only a likely renewal when SVU is higher rated?

    SVU isn’t really rated higher than Parenthood. On the index SVU is only .02 ahead of parenthood. If you look at the actual episode ratings though, Parenthood has beat or tied SVU in the each of the last 4 weeks (therefor it is actually outrating SVU). Short of that, SVU is much older (and therefor more expensive than Parenthood) and Parenthood is close to syndication numbers so there is more incentive for NBC to renew it (and potentially make money off the show by selling it to other networks).

  • Randy

    For anyone that cares, NBC has put the episode of ANIMAL PRACTICE that hasn’t aired on actual television on nbc.com I can only hope that they will also put the other episode online. The episode that is online right now is called Wingmen!

  • Brian J

    NBC should give “SVU” one final, and perhaps shortened season, and try to end it early and/or move it this season.

  • Charlie

    I agree Brian J. Law and Order can lay to rest with the cancellation bear.

  • Sam

    Chicago Fire gets better and better each week. It has become my most anticipated show of the week already. It’s well written and the acting is strong. I hope NBC doesn’t cancel prematurely while it’s still in the process of building a fanbase.

  • Jesse Cardoza

    NBC’s problem is that they drop the tv shows that have such potential and yet still need time to find their audience. I say they should keep Chicago Fire its been doing well so far in terms of episode quality, story arcs and character development. It takes more than a few episodes to find viewers which is why the NBC people buried previous shows that could have been decent like Prime Suspect and Chase.

  • toadytoady

    The hired lobby is well managed to fan the flames of Chicago Fire and dampen the spirit of SVU. We have seen all this before with LOLA.Deja vu.

  • Chris Brannigan

    so glad Go On is doing well. I love Matthew Perry and Studio 60 was one of the best shows that never got a second season ever! Mr Sunshine was also really good but got cancelled early too. Glad Go On is going to, well, Go On!

  • Charles

    I love that people still still metion Community even though it hasnt aired. I really wish more people would see its one of the better shows on NBC. Clearly as Ive read the show has a cult following, with me in line.

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