Renew/Cancel Recap: Bubble Watch is Back and Can't Possibly Be Wrong About 'Fringe' This Season! (Or Can It?)

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 4th, 2012

 

The feedback I've received has overwhelmingly been "please give us back the old Bubble Watch table!" Even though there wasn't any difference in readership for the past month or so while I've tried variations of Bubble Watch that weren't exactly "Bubble Watch," the end of daylight saving time and the return to standard time seemed like a good time to give the vocal minority who really cares about the table format the table format they asked for. Due to rust and using last year's final table as a starting point their may be a mistake or five, though I think I did at least get all of last year's canceled shows out of this year's table... Though there's bold text above the table, I'll restate it here: shows that haven't aired an episode yet are not in the table, and like the Renew/Cancel Index this is only scripted shows.

Other than the all-in-one table format, there aren't currently many differences between Bubble Watch and the Renew/Cancel Index -- there usually aren't, so that's not a big surprise. The biggest difference -- and I don't consider it very big -- is Nikita and I wrote about that last week, so if you're interested in why the Renew/Cancel Index has it at likely renewal and I have it on the bubble you can click the link to last week's post. That Nikita was up in the preliminary numbers 100% over last week (from a 0.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 0.4) is perhaps a good sign...but, I'm waiting to see the final numbers on Monday before considering whether that sways me any.

I also have knocked Don't Trust The B--- in Apt 23 down to likely cancellation. The R/C had it as a toss-up last week, but I had the benefit of an additional ratings data point. Sure, maybe I should've tossed that data point out since much of New York was without power due to the superstorm...but I didn't. My thinking is that ABC will cancel at least one of its comedies, and it's currently the most likely candidate by a fairly wide margin.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
666 Park Avenue ABC Certain Cancellation
Last Resort ABC Certain Cancellation
Partners CBS Certain Cancellation
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC Too Soon
Malibu Country ABC Too Soon
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Andrew

    Poor Secret Circle; cancelled and still forever on the bubble.

  • Bright

    The Secret Circle on the bubble, really?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    ha. see post, I swear I thought I had got them all! (now removed — I wasn’t taunting Secret Circle fans…).

  • luisl

    The Secret Circle is there.

  • Felix

    Is The Secret Cirle meant to be Beauty and The Beast?

  • Kate

    Yay for Bubble Watch returning! Thanks!

  • ethan

    secret circle is on the bubble?…lol i must have missed something

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Secret Circle/Beauty & the Beast snafu now resolved – reload the page if it isn’t.

  • James

    Where’s The Beauty and The Beast?

  • a p garcia

    I really don’t think it matters for Frince, since in about 2 months, it wilolo be history.

  • Jamie

    ,Could Partners not move to The CW? Sophia Bush has a fan base their and even if its ratings half it`ll still be huge for them.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Jamie: no, it could not.

  • a p garcia

    Isn’t HIMYM in its final season?

  • KS

    Is Emily Owens MD, gonna be cancelled after its 13 episodes or after season 1? Any guesses?

  • Charlie

    Why 666 Park! Why!

  • Michael

    How is the Secret Circle on the bubble?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Michael: it isn’t.

    @a p: I guess I’ll need to add more boilerplate (that nobody will read anyway). For shows that have been around a long time but still have relatively good-to-great ratings (NCIS, How I Met Your Mother, Supernatural) without any announcements, predictions are ratings based only with no predictions or assumptions about what the shows’ producers/actors/etc. want to do.

  • Dan S

    I can’t believe I see The Neighbors for likely renewal. Not long ago a substantial number in a poll was forecasting early cancellation along with Patners & Mob Dr all still on the air for now. I still think Neigbors is a weak link on Wed & likely will move to another night to make room for a new comedy eventually.

  • Melanie

    Chicago Fire glad its still on the bubble and not down to likely cancellation. Nashville on the other hand . . .
    I wish Vegas was doing well enough to be on the bubble, but I can’t really argue with the designation.

  • hoki

    HIMYM and TAAHM as ‘likely renewal’? And Mike and Molly as ‘certain renewal’? Why?

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