Renew/Cancel Recap: Bubble Watch is Back and Can't Possibly Be Wrong About 'Fringe' This Season! (Or Can It?)

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 4th, 2012

 

The feedback I've received has overwhelmingly been "please give us back the old Bubble Watch table!" Even though there wasn't any difference in readership for the past month or so while I've tried variations of Bubble Watch that weren't exactly "Bubble Watch," the end of daylight saving time and the return to standard time seemed like a good time to give the vocal minority who really cares about the table format the table format they asked for. Due to rust and using last year's final table as a starting point their may be a mistake or five, though I think I did at least get all of last year's canceled shows out of this year's table... Though there's bold text above the table, I'll restate it here: shows that haven't aired an episode yet are not in the table, and like the Renew/Cancel Index this is only scripted shows.

Other than the all-in-one table format, there aren't currently many differences between Bubble Watch and the Renew/Cancel Index -- there usually aren't, so that's not a big surprise. The biggest difference -- and I don't consider it very big -- is Nikita and I wrote about that last week, so if you're interested in why the Renew/Cancel Index has it at likely renewal and I have it on the bubble you can click the link to last week's post. That Nikita was up in the preliminary numbers 100% over last week (from a 0.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 0.4) is perhaps a good sign...but, I'm waiting to see the final numbers on Monday before considering whether that sways me any.

I also have knocked Don't Trust The B--- in Apt 23 down to likely cancellation. The R/C had it as a toss-up last week, but I had the benefit of an additional ratings data point. Sure, maybe I should've tossed that data point out since much of New York was without power due to the superstorm...but I didn't. My thinking is that ABC will cancel at least one of its comedies, and it's currently the most likely candidate by a fairly wide margin.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
666 Park Avenue ABC Certain Cancellation
Last Resort ABC Certain Cancellation
Partners CBS Certain Cancellation
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC Too Soon
Malibu Country ABC Too Soon
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • John A

    CW should try comedies next year instead of flop dramas.

  • brian I

    Revenge! Certain Renewal!

  • Gina

    Curious, on the Fox only one, Bones is certain renewal. On here, likely. Why is that? Thanks.

  • Mike3

    Hurry up with those Sat. Prelims.

  • mary

    Why is Hawaii Five 0 only likely renewal. Shouldn’t it be certain renewal with the sydication deal. If Blue Bloods is certain renewal I would think Hawaii Five 0 would be.

  • Brandy

    Hoki, 2.5 Men ratings are still good and Mike& Molly will Likley get season four for syndication and HIMYM though it’s been mentioned by cast and writers that this could possibly be the last season, no official”final season ” announcement has been made public yet so it still be renewed for a final season next season.

  • KS

    @John A

    The problem is CW. Not the shows, at least this season.

  • The Village Videot

    Irritating that the title teased Fringe and we get nothing.

  • Tessa

    Yeay, Bubble Watch! I agree with pretty much everything. I don’t know what to make of all the CW shows except 3 either being on the bubble or certain to be cancelled.

  • Mark3

    666 should be renewed ! Best new show. And terry o quinn amazing actor! Cant wait for new cw show cult! Gonna be a great one. 90210 will be renewed for a final season next year.

  • CrimTV

    So glad to see the Bubble Watch back :D

  • Ian

    I’m so sad about Apt 23! It’s my favorite show so is Happy Endings they are both the best comedies on tv. Happy to see Revenge for certain renewal as well as OUAT. Nervous about Scandal although I pretty sure it will be back for a third season at least I hope. Also happy for Grey’s and Modern Family although its obvious they will be back next year.

  • ToXiX

    Aaaaahhhhh. Bobs Burgers – Renewed

  • Joseph

    I thought our own Cancellation Bear was the editor of the “Bubble Watch” section.

    ;)

  • fresser28

    The Mindy Project should have been canceled already. It’s really terrible and has made me dislike Mindy Kaling, whom I thought was mildly funny before this series. Her character is beyond obnoxious and is ludicrous – were supposed to buy that a respected, competent doctor is actually a petulant, clueless, annoying teenager in her romantic life?

    At first I thought Ben & Kate was cute, but as it has progressed I’ve lost interest, mostly because I find Nate Faxon to be grating. Dakota Johnson is adorable and Lucy Punch is hilarious, but Faxon takes up too much screen time and he’s annoying. Too bad, because with a different Ben it might have worked.

  • ToXiX

    I really think CBS will renew 2.5 Men for Season 11.

    1. While not as strong as it once was. It’s still the 2nd best comedy and sometimes 3rd because of 2BG.

    2. More Kutcher episodes for syndication.

    3. The show is far from dead because of the new set up.

  • LT

    How i met your mother is not funny. Like at all.

  • Joe

    The Neighbors at a likely renewal? Really?

  • Derrick

    “Last Resort ABC Certain Cancellation ” LIES all LIES !!!!!!!!!!

  • john

    Hope you’re correct but a 1.3 for Blue Bloods on Friday is not a certain renewal, especially with CBS.

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