The feedback I've received has overwhelmingly been "please give us back the old Bubble Watch table!" Even though there wasn't any difference in readership for the past month or so while I've tried variations of Bubble Watch that weren't exactly "Bubble Watch," the end of daylight saving time and the return to standard time seemed like a good time to give the vocal minority who really cares about the table format the table format they asked for. Due to rust and using last year's final table as a starting point their may be a mistake or five, though I think I did at least get all of last year's canceled shows out of this year's table... Though there's bold text above the table, I'll restate it here: shows that haven't aired an episode yet are not in the table, and like the Renew/Cancel Index this is only scripted shows.
Other than the all-in-one table format, there aren't currently many differences between Bubble Watch and the Renew/Cancel Index -- there usually aren't, so that's not a big surprise. The biggest difference -- and I don't consider it very big -- is Nikita and I wrote about that last week, so if you're interested in why the Renew/Cancel Index has it at likely renewal and I have it on the bubble you can click the link to last week's post. That Nikita was up in the preliminary numbers 100% over last week (from a 0.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 0.4) is perhaps a good sign...but, I'm waiting to see the final numbers on Monday before considering whether that sways me any.
I also have knocked Don't Trust The B--- in Apt 23 down to likely cancellation. The R/C had it as a toss-up last week, but I had the benefit of an additional ratings data point. Sure, maybe I should've tossed that data point out since much of New York was without power due to the superstorm...but I didn't. My thinking is that ABC will cancel at least one of its comedies, and it's currently the most likely candidate by a fairly wide margin.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Last Resort | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Partners | CBS | Certain Cancellation |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Happy Endings | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Too Soon |
| Malibu Country | ABC | Too Soon |
| Nashville | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Bones | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final Season |
| Fringe | Fox | Final Season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
I wish TSC was really on the bubble
#sigh
last resport i believe will rise to a 1.6-1.8 next week
I think The Neighbors is definitely a bubble show, but maybe that’s for another discussion.
Made In Jersey
CBS Canceled
Animal Practice
NBC Canceled
666 Park Avenue
ABC Certain Cancellation
Last Resort
ABC Certain Cancellation
Partners
CBS Certain Cancellation
Emily Owens, M.D.
CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor
Fox Certain Cancellation
Don’t Trust The B—- in Apartment 23
ABC Certain Cancellation
Vegas
CBS Certain Cancellation
Ben And Kate
Fox Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids
NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night
NBC Certain Cancellation
Happy Endings
ABC Certain Cancellation
Last Man Standing
ABC Certain Cancellation
Malibu Country
ABC Too Soon
Nashville
ABC Certain Cancellation
Scandal
ABC Certain Cancellation
CSI: NY
CBS Certain Cancellation
The Good Wife
CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist
CBS Certain Cancellation
90210 CW Certain Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast
CW Certain Cancellation
Hart Of Dixie
CW Certain Renewal
Nikita
CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project
Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire
NBC On The Bubble
How I Met Your Mother
CBS Certain Cancellation
Two and a Half Men
CBS On The Bubble
Parks & Recreation
NBC On The Bubble
The New Normal
NBC Certain Cancellation
Much better, thanks. This is so much easier to read and understand.
The return to the traditional table format is all fine and good, but a few weeks ago someone may have run over my dog, if I had one.
When are we getting to the bottom of that potential tragedy?
@Bill Gorman
Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:33 PM
“The return to the traditional table format is all fine and good, but a few weeks ago someone may have run over my dog, if I had one.
When are we getting to the bottom of that potential tragedy?
”
It was solved, and we have actual video evidence.
It was the dog that attacked and ate the car, youtube link below
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9D9f_ySvkA
I try posting again, hope it works
@Bill Gorman
Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:33 PM
“The return to the traditional table format is all fine and good, but a few weeks ago someone may have run over my dog, if I had one.
When are we getting to the bottom of that potential tragedy?
”
It was solved, and we have actual video evidence.
It was the dog that attacked and ate the car, youtube link below
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9D9f_ySvkA
For previous folks that are complaining… this table is based on ratings only. While HIMYM in all likelihood will in no way be coming back (all the actors and producers want to move on), as this was never officially announced as the final season and the ratings are great, it’s listed as it should be in likely renewal.
Similarly both Kutcher and Cryer have said they don’t want to come back next season (otherwise it would’ve been renewed for 2 seasons like CBS wanted to do) but the ratings say it’s a virtual lock for renewal and thus it’s listed as such. Unlike HIMYM, I have a good feeling CBS/WB will sucker Kutcher and Cryer into another season. But that’s not predictable here.
It’s correct!
The link
It was solved, and we have actual video evidence.
It was the dog that attacked and ate the car, youtube link below
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9D9f_ySvkA
It was solved, and we have actual video evidence.
hope this works
@ jake3988 great post
For previous folks that are complaining… this table is based on ratings only. While HIMYM in all likelihood will in no way be coming back (all the actors and producers want to move on), as this was never officially announced as the final season and the ratings are great, it’s listed as it should be in likely renewal.
Similarly both Kutcher and Cryer have said they don’t want to come back next season (otherwise it would’ve been renewed for 2 seasons like CBS wanted to do) but the ratings say it’s a virtual lock for renewal and thus it’s listed as such. Unlike HIMYM, I have a good feeling CBS/WB will sucker Kutcher and Cryer into another season. But that’s not predictable here.
It’s correct!
Last Man Standing has to be certainty for cancellation. The producers have treated their viewers like idiots with the changes to the cast. The new actress playing Kristen looks older than the mom and her son has magically aged. Sallow your pride Tim Allen and bring back Alex fast and you may save your show.
I suspect people are wondering why HIMYM/TaaHM aren’t certain renewals based on their ratings.
Hart of Dixie is LIKELY RENEWAL.
Beauty and the Beast is LIKELY CANCELLATION.
Some minor disagreement:
- I would put at least one of the ABC dramas as likely canceled rather than certain. They don’t sound to me as certain as mob doctor for instance and with nashville falling to their levels, it remains to be seen what ABC does
- Neighbours is a bubble show for me, even if it has already beaten its expectations
- SVU is a bubble show for me. I don’t understand why you guys are always so generous with the show here. Last week bill even had it as certain renewal, even though he downgraded it this week.
- If Blue Bloods is certain, so should be H50, but this distintcion is not very relevant I think – I am more interested in bubble/everything else distinction
So i agree with almost everything, that’s nice.
The CW is targeting developing comedies for next Fall. Their last comedy series, Aliens in America, flopped, so don’t expect miracles.
Blue Bloods is in its 3rd season so will get a fourth season renewal for syndication.
I’m not quite as bullish on the chances of TNN, Cleveland or CSI:NY.
Yeah, I did not mention but I would say hart is safer than the rest of the CW bubble shows. So i could argue for a likely in its case.
Why does every drama and sitcom on CBS, ABC, and NBC that has 24 episodes in its first season almost always get renewed for another season? Does anybody know why? For example, Modern Family had 24 episodes in its first season and it got renewed for another season. If any drama or sitcom on one the big 3 networks has 24 episodes in its first season, thats pretty much a sign that it’ll have a second season.
Does anybody know what the ABC version of FX or USA Network is?
We know that FX is to Fox as USA Network is to NBC
Am I the only one shocked by the Neighbors likely renewal?
Robert, I’m losing faith in you.
Explanation?