Renew/Cancel Recap: Bubble Watch is Back and Can't Possibly Be Wrong About 'Fringe' This Season! (Or Can It?)

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 4th, 2012

 

The feedback I've received has overwhelmingly been "please give us back the old Bubble Watch table!" Even though there wasn't any difference in readership for the past month or so while I've tried variations of Bubble Watch that weren't exactly "Bubble Watch," the end of daylight saving time and the return to standard time seemed like a good time to give the vocal minority who really cares about the table format the table format they asked for. Due to rust and using last year's final table as a starting point their may be a mistake or five, though I think I did at least get all of last year's canceled shows out of this year's table... Though there's bold text above the table, I'll restate it here: shows that haven't aired an episode yet are not in the table, and like the Renew/Cancel Index this is only scripted shows.

Other than the all-in-one table format, there aren't currently many differences between Bubble Watch and the Renew/Cancel Index -- there usually aren't, so that's not a big surprise. The biggest difference -- and I don't consider it very big -- is Nikita and I wrote about that last week, so if you're interested in why the Renew/Cancel Index has it at likely renewal and I have it on the bubble you can click the link to last week's post. That Nikita was up in the preliminary numbers 100% over last week (from a 0.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 0.4) is perhaps a good sign...but, I'm waiting to see the final numbers on Monday before considering whether that sways me any.

I also have knocked Don't Trust The B--- in Apt 23 down to likely cancellation. The R/C had it as a toss-up last week, but I had the benefit of an additional ratings data point. Sure, maybe I should've tossed that data point out since much of New York was without power due to the superstorm...but I didn't. My thinking is that ABC will cancel at least one of its comedies, and it's currently the most likely candidate by a fairly wide margin.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
666 Park Avenue ABC Certain Cancellation
Last Resort ABC Certain Cancellation
Partners CBS Certain Cancellation
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC Too Soon
Malibu Country ABC Too Soon
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • SPM

    I wish TSC was really on the bubble

    #sigh

  • Michael

    last resport i believe will rise to a 1.6-1.8 next week

  • Tyler D

    I think The Neighbors is definitely a bubble show, but maybe that’s for another discussion.

  • Honey Badger

    Made In Jersey
    CBS Canceled
    Animal Practice
    NBC Canceled

    666 Park Avenue
    ABC Certain Cancellation
    Last Resort
    ABC Certain Cancellation
    Partners
    CBS Certain Cancellation
    Emily Owens, M.D.
    CW Certain Cancellation
    The Mob Doctor
    Fox Certain Cancellation

    Don’t Trust The B—- in Apartment 23
    ABC Certain Cancellation
    Vegas
    CBS Certain Cancellation
    Ben And Kate
    Fox Certain Cancellation
    Guys With Kids
    NBC Certain Cancellation
    Up All Night
    NBC Certain Cancellation

    Happy Endings
    ABC Certain Cancellation
    Last Man Standing
    ABC Certain Cancellation
    Malibu Country
    ABC Too Soon
    Nashville
    ABC Certain Cancellation
    Scandal
    ABC Certain Cancellation
    CSI: NY
    CBS Certain Cancellation
    The Good Wife
    CBS On The Bubble
    The Mentalist
    CBS Certain Cancellation
    90210 CW Certain Cancellation
    Beauty And The Beast
    CW Certain Cancellation
    Hart Of Dixie
    CW Certain Renewal
    Nikita
    CW On The Bubble
    The Mindy Project
    Fox On The Bubble
    Chicago Fire
    NBC On The Bubble

    How I Met Your Mother
    CBS Certain Cancellation
    Two and a Half Men
    CBS On The Bubble
    Parks & Recreation
    NBC On The Bubble
    The New Normal
    NBC Certain Cancellation

  • rehabber

    Much better, thanks. This is so much easier to read and understand.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    The return to the traditional table format is all fine and good, but a few weeks ago someone may have run over my dog, if I had one.

    When are we getting to the bottom of that potential tragedy?

  • Honey Badger

    @Bill Gorman
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:33 PM
    “The return to the traditional table format is all fine and good, but a few weeks ago someone may have run over my dog, if I had one.

    When are we getting to the bottom of that potential tragedy?

    It was solved, and we have actual video evidence.

    It was the dog that attacked and ate the car, youtube link below

  • Honey Badger

    I try posting again, hope it works

    @Bill Gorman
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:33 PM
    “The return to the traditional table format is all fine and good, but a few weeks ago someone may have run over my dog, if I had one.
    When are we getting to the bottom of that potential tragedy?

    It was solved, and we have actual video evidence.
    It was the dog that attacked and ate the car, youtube link below

  • jake3988

    For previous folks that are complaining… this table is based on ratings only. While HIMYM in all likelihood will in no way be coming back (all the actors and producers want to move on), as this was never officially announced as the final season and the ratings are great, it’s listed as it should be in likely renewal.

    Similarly both Kutcher and Cryer have said they don’t want to come back next season (otherwise it would’ve been renewed for 2 seasons like CBS wanted to do) but the ratings say it’s a virtual lock for renewal and thus it’s listed as such. Unlike HIMYM, I have a good feeling CBS/WB will sucker Kutcher and Cryer into another season. But that’s not predictable here.

    It’s correct!

  • Honey Badger

    The link
    It was solved, and we have actual video evidence.
    It was the dog that attacked and ate the car, youtube link below
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9D9f_ySvkA

    It was solved, and we have actual video evidence.
    hope this works

  • Honey Badger

    @ jake3988 great post

    For previous folks that are complaining… this table is based on ratings only. While HIMYM in all likelihood will in no way be coming back (all the actors and producers want to move on), as this was never officially announced as the final season and the ratings are great, it’s listed as it should be in likely renewal.

    Similarly both Kutcher and Cryer have said they don’t want to come back next season (otherwise it would’ve been renewed for 2 seasons like CBS wanted to do) but the ratings say it’s a virtual lock for renewal and thus it’s listed as such. Unlike HIMYM, I have a good feeling CBS/WB will sucker Kutcher and Cryer into another season. But that’s not predictable here.

    It’s correct!

  • Michael

    Last Man Standing has to be certainty for cancellation. The producers have treated their viewers like idiots with the changes to the cast. The new actress playing Kristen looks older than the mom and her son has magically aged. Sallow your pride Tim Allen and bring back Alex fast and you may save your show.

  • Oliver

    I suspect people are wondering why HIMYM/TaaHM aren’t certain renewals based on their ratings.

  • nicola83

    Hart of Dixie is LIKELY RENEWAL.
    Beauty and the Beast is LIKELY CANCELLATION.

  • omabin

    Some minor disagreement:
    - I would put at least one of the ABC dramas as likely canceled rather than certain. They don’t sound to me as certain as mob doctor for instance and with nashville falling to their levels, it remains to be seen what ABC does
    - Neighbours is a bubble show for me, even if it has already beaten its expectations
    - SVU is a bubble show for me. I don’t understand why you guys are always so generous with the show here. Last week bill even had it as certain renewal, even though he downgraded it this week.
    - If Blue Bloods is certain, so should be H50, but this distintcion is not very relevant I think – I am more interested in bubble/everything else distinction

    So i agree with almost everything, that’s nice.

  • Oliver

    The CW is targeting developing comedies for next Fall. Their last comedy series, Aliens in America, flopped, so don’t expect miracles.

    Blue Bloods is in its 3rd season so will get a fourth season renewal for syndication.

    I’m not quite as bullish on the chances of TNN, Cleveland or CSI:NY.

  • omabin

    Yeah, I did not mention but I would say hart is safer than the rest of the CW bubble shows. So i could argue for a likely in its case.

  • Austin Lauran

    Why does every drama and sitcom on CBS, ABC, and NBC that has 24 episodes in its first season almost always get renewed for another season? Does anybody know why? For example, Modern Family had 24 episodes in its first season and it got renewed for another season. If any drama or sitcom on one the big 3 networks has 24 episodes in its first season, thats pretty much a sign that it’ll have a second season.

  • Austin Lauran

    Does anybody know what the ABC version of FX or USA Network is?

    We know that FX is to Fox as USA Network is to NBC

  • Bookworm

    Am I the only one shocked by the Neighbors likely renewal?

    Robert, I’m losing faith in you.

    Explanation?

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