Renew/Cancel Recap: Bubble Watch is Back and Can't Possibly Be Wrong About 'Fringe' This Season! (Or Can It?)

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 4th, 2012

 

The feedback I've received has overwhelmingly been "please give us back the old Bubble Watch table!" Even though there wasn't any difference in readership for the past month or so while I've tried variations of Bubble Watch that weren't exactly "Bubble Watch," the end of daylight saving time and the return to standard time seemed like a good time to give the vocal minority who really cares about the table format the table format they asked for. Due to rust and using last year's final table as a starting point their may be a mistake or five, though I think I did at least get all of last year's canceled shows out of this year's table... Though there's bold text above the table, I'll restate it here: shows that haven't aired an episode yet are not in the table, and like the Renew/Cancel Index this is only scripted shows.

Other than the all-in-one table format, there aren't currently many differences between Bubble Watch and the Renew/Cancel Index -- there usually aren't, so that's not a big surprise. The biggest difference -- and I don't consider it very big -- is Nikita and I wrote about that last week, so if you're interested in why the Renew/Cancel Index has it at likely renewal and I have it on the bubble you can click the link to last week's post. That Nikita was up in the preliminary numbers 100% over last week (from a 0.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 0.4) is perhaps a good sign...but, I'm waiting to see the final numbers on Monday before considering whether that sways me any.

I also have knocked Don't Trust The B--- in Apt 23 down to likely cancellation. The R/C had it as a toss-up last week, but I had the benefit of an additional ratings data point. Sure, maybe I should've tossed that data point out since much of New York was without power due to the superstorm...but I didn't. My thinking is that ABC will cancel at least one of its comedies, and it's currently the most likely candidate by a fairly wide margin.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
666 Park Avenue ABC Certain Cancellation
Last Resort ABC Certain Cancellation
Partners CBS Certain Cancellation
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC Too Soon
Malibu Country ABC Too Soon
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Does anybody know what the ABC version of FX or USA Network is?”

    Probably the closest would be ABC Family, but other than the “owned by the same corporate parent” relationship, it’s not clear what connection you’re implying.

  • Oliver

    @Austin Lauran

    Networks tend to give additional episodes to hit new shows.

    ABC own ABC Family and half of A&E/Lifetime.

    @Michael

    It’s because Nikita is only in its third season and gets very low ratings.

    By contrast, Hawaii Five-O has a huge syndication agreement already signed with TNT, Blue Bloods gets okay-for-Friday ratings, and Mike & Molly’s ratings justify renewal regardless of syndication.

  • Moe

    Yay!! Love seeing Supernatural as “certain renewal!!!”

  • Eric

    Bones should be in certain cancellation section. No way Fox brings it back. 9 seasons is way too long. Fox can’t be happy with Bones ratings. They’ll end it this season and start fresh with all new dramas next season.

  • Potato

    @Austin Lauran– It’s because new shows usually start with an order of 13 episodes. If they are doing well, they get a back 9 to make it 22. But if they’re doing REALLY well, they get a back 11 to make it 24 and the chances of a show that is doing really well getting renewed is obviously high. This happens a lot also with shows in their first seasons because hit shows have to be cradled with attention more when they start out and eliminating reruns is a good way to do that. More reruns/long breaks usually make people lose interest

  • ally

    Fingers crossed for ‘Beauty and The Beast to get renewed! Its a really good show, and if u don’t agree, you should really give it another chance.. you’ll catch on ;)

  • Austin Lauran

    What if a low-rated show has 24 episodes in its first season? Will it still get cancelled? I know that 24 episodes in season 1 is code for: “[Insert title] is renewed for season 2″ nowadays. Also, when was the last time a show with 24 episodes got cancelled after its first and only season?

  • 1313 SVU Lane

    Yikes 666 Park Ave sets destroyed during Sandy. An expected 3 weeks before they can get back up and running. The drama continues about if/when ABC will order a few more episodes.

    http://blog.zap2it.com/frominsidethebox/2012/11/m-666-park-avenue-sets-heavily-damaged-by-hurricane-sandy.html

  • CrimTV

    @Eric

    Because Fox are so successful at launching dramas nowadays!

  • Chris

    Last Man Standing will be cancelled if they don’t get back to season 1 form.

  • John A

    ABC should just axe 666 Park Avenue now then. Just a waste of money rebuilding sets for a flop show.

  • Chris

    Where has it Been said that Ashton kutcher and Jon cryer don’t want to do another season of 2.5 Men?

  • SarahL

    The Neighbors is likely renewal?! I love the show, but even I think that it is “on the bubble.”

  • Bob

    Guys with Kids DESERVES the bubble!!!! I wish it would go to ABC and put on Friday or Wednesday after The Middle! NBC does not appreciate their great shows like Harry’s Law (LOL) and Guys with Kids.

  • Just Desserts

    Yey! for The Neighbors. + Malibu Country Should be likely renewal.

  • Ekras

    FRINGE WAS RENEWED FOR AN EXTRA SEASON!!!!!!!

    ahem :)

  • 1123.6536.5321

    Just found out the FRINGE series finale is not until Jan 18,2013.

    If the world ends 12/21/2012 as per the Mayan calendar I will be really really really annoyed and will shake my fist in anger at FOX as I slip beneath the waves.

  • 1123.6536.5321

    FRINGE was renewed !! For a 2 episode Season 6. LOL!

  • Just Desserts

    Some of the the shows need to be adjusted next week.

    Suburgatory and The Middle are certain renewal.

    Last man Standing, Malibu Country, and Sacndal are likely renewal.

    The New Normal is On the Bubble.

  • SJ

    @1313 SVU Lane

    The same article states that WB is looking to restart production in no time, so I don’t think they’ll need to take a three-week break. Besides, it’s pretty safe to assume that the first 10 episodes that are to air until the Christmas break are already in the can, so that shouldn’t influence scheduling anyway.

    I disagree with The Neighbors’ designation. Averaging a 1.9/2.0 amongst three comedies that do better, it is firmly on the bubble.

    Happy Endings will get a season 4, it just remains to be seen if it’ll be on ABC or elsewhere. Poor Apartment 23 could really be gone after this season. It is just dreadful how ABC’s neglect of this show led to its current situation. It could have been their 2 Broke Girls, but no, it had to premiere in mid-April. Way to go, ABC.

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