Renew/Cancel Recap: Bubble Watch is Back and Can't Possibly Be Wrong About 'Fringe' This Season! (Or Can It?)

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 4th, 2012

 

The feedback I've received has overwhelmingly been "please give us back the old Bubble Watch table!" Even though there wasn't any difference in readership for the past month or so while I've tried variations of Bubble Watch that weren't exactly "Bubble Watch," the end of daylight saving time and the return to standard time seemed like a good time to give the vocal minority who really cares about the table format the table format they asked for. Due to rust and using last year's final table as a starting point their may be a mistake or five, though I think I did at least get all of last year's canceled shows out of this year's table... Though there's bold text above the table, I'll restate it here: shows that haven't aired an episode yet are not in the table, and like the Renew/Cancel Index this is only scripted shows.

Other than the all-in-one table format, there aren't currently many differences between Bubble Watch and the Renew/Cancel Index -- there usually aren't, so that's not a big surprise. The biggest difference -- and I don't consider it very big -- is Nikita and I wrote about that last week, so if you're interested in why the Renew/Cancel Index has it at likely renewal and I have it on the bubble you can click the link to last week's post. That Nikita was up in the preliminary numbers 100% over last week (from a 0.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 0.4) is perhaps a good sign...but, I'm waiting to see the final numbers on Monday before considering whether that sways me any.

I also have knocked Don't Trust The B--- in Apt 23 down to likely cancellation. The R/C had it as a toss-up last week, but I had the benefit of an additional ratings data point. Sure, maybe I should've tossed that data point out since much of New York was without power due to the superstorm...but I didn't. My thinking is that ABC will cancel at least one of its comedies, and it's currently the most likely candidate by a fairly wide margin.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
666 Park Avenue ABC Certain Cancellation
Last Resort ABC Certain Cancellation
Partners CBS Certain Cancellation
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC Too Soon
Malibu Country ABC Too Soon
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Dan S

    Maybe the set for 666 getting destroyed was Gods will. With the ratings in the toilet I think it’s time for ABC to just pull the plug & let the bear chow down. I think in the weeks ahead I expect Neighbors to get put on the bubble. Likely renewal is just too optimistic for that show to even be considered for a 2nd season. Regrettably I have to agree that both Last Resort & Apt 23 are justified being a likely cancellation.

  • Dan S

    Ooooops, I see Last Resort is certain cancellation not likely. I’d say likely cancellation myself at this point.

  • CBSviewer

    I don’t see why CSI: NY is still on the bubble. It has higher ratings than Blue Bloods which is certain to be Renewed.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @CBSviewer: an easy rule of thumb is: which show absolutely has to be renewed for another season in order to get enough episodes for syndication?

  • mayorofsmpleton

    fresser28,

    It’s an irreverent comedy. It’s not supposed to be realistic. The whole point of the show is that Kaling’s character is obviously kind of a moron. That’s why it’s called “The Mindy Project” — her life is a work in progress but she’s too self involved to see that her biggest problem is herself. Through that delusion she creates drama and ridiculous situations – typically at the expense of the people around her.

    I think the show is hilarious. Of course it’s ridiculous — but no more ridiculous than any other comedy I can think of.

  • DenverDean

    CSI: Vegas is probably tilting towards certain renewal for three reasons: 1) it’s become CBS’ top-rated 10 p.m. drama; 2) it is winning timeslot against two strong (hyped up competitors); and 3) it still does well in syndication. A bonus – it will finish this season with around 295 episodes. CBS will certainly renew for a minimum 13 to get it over 300.

    CBS drama cancellations – Vegas and TM (if it has choice btw TGW/CSI:NY/TM, TM will be cancelled and one of those first two will be saved because produced by CBS).

  • 1123.6536.5321

    At the end of the last episode of 666 Park Avenue, Terry O Quinn should enter “77″ into his computer after some asian dude tells him to, at which point the building exlodes.

  • Percysowner

    @Austin Lauran ABC Family is the ABC version of FX or USA.

  • joel

    @mayor,
    Then why would they think it was a good idea to make her a doctor as opposed to any other profession? No, don’t answer that because I really don’t care. I personally believe it’s called “The Mindy Project” because the show is Mindy Kaling’s project and they weren’t creative or funny enough to come up with a better name, just like they weren’t creative or funny enough to come up with a good show.

  • 1123.6536.5321

    Alternate ending for 666 Park Avenue.

    Terry O Quinn wakes up to an ear splitting sound coming from his computer and tries to enter 4 8 15 16 23 42 into his computer but keeps getting the last number wrong. The entire building shudders and shakes implodes as it is sucked into a wormhole and vanishes. Roll credits.

  • joel

    I forgot to mention I see a contradiction in The Mindy Project and Ben & Kate being in different categories, as their current ratings momentums justify having them in the same category. Over time I have a feeling B&K will be looking more popular than The Mindy Project but that still might not be enough to save it.

  • 1123.6536.5321

    Too bad Telly Savalas is dead or he could guest star on the series finale of FRINGE as Kojak.

  • Oliver

    @SJ

    Happy Endings will get a season 4, it just remains to be seen if it’ll be on ABC or elsewhere.

    Totally agree. There’s no way Sony is going to let this one go so close to syndication.

    Poor Apartment 23 could really be gone after this season.

    Looks likely, sadly. It was never a good fit for ABC. I wouldn’t totally rule out Apt 23 finding a home on cable either.

  • BPKK

    If the CW doesn’t give Emily or Beauty additional episode orders, what will the air in the vacant timeslots for the rest of the season? Carrie Diaries already has a slot and even if Cult takes Beauty’s Thursday slot, that still leaves one on Friday open. Would the network really run 2 hours of reruns a week when they only have 10 hours as it is?

  • Chris

    “Revenge – Certain Renewal
    2 Broke Girls – Certain Renewal”

    ALL I really care about!~

    Thanks for the info.

  • joethehobo

    How is it possible that Two and A Half Men and Big Bang Theory find such a massive audience and Happy Endings and Apartment 23 struggle?

  • Ema

    I used to love Supernatural but this season has been weak so far, I do hope it gets renewed, Beauty and the Beast needs to be cancelled, and I think Arrow is now one of the best shows on the CW, Elementary is awesome on CBS so I hope that get’s renewed, thanks Robert for keeping us informed, and don’t worry I read your several posts concerning the secret circle error :)

  • Networkman

    fresser28, I agree I lost interest in Ben & Kate as well. The lead actor Nate Faxon is less than appealing. As far as Two & A Half Men, I can see CBS keeping it for an 11th season. HIMYM should end, therefore CBS will need it back on Monday Night. CBS should really think about 2 hour comedy block on Thursday next season. I feel comedies would get higher demo than Person of Interest. Also POI could grow stronger during the fall being away from Thursday night football.

    ABC has to begin to make some bold decision. IMO, I feel Scandal will do better airing after Revenge. The network can do better in that timeslot. Nashville has begun to get more soapish and will fit nicely with Grey’s Anatomy on Thursday. And then why not try Last Resort on Friday after Shark Tank. It may be able to win the hour. Red Widow then might be more suitable for Wednesday @10pm.

  • Court

    You owe but csiny on bubble list for good suck show do will can you jest keep it. Put back wed night.

  • Austin Lauran

    Which shows currently airing on ABC would be considered as the best shows on ABC in the past 10 years? I’m just wondering what anyone has to say.

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