Renew/Cancel Recap: Bubble Watch is Back and Can't Possibly Be Wrong About 'Fringe' This Season! (Or Can It?)

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 4th, 2012

 

The feedback I've received has overwhelmingly been "please give us back the old Bubble Watch table!" Even though there wasn't any difference in readership for the past month or so while I've tried variations of Bubble Watch that weren't exactly "Bubble Watch," the end of daylight saving time and the return to standard time seemed like a good time to give the vocal minority who really cares about the table format the table format they asked for. Due to rust and using last year's final table as a starting point their may be a mistake or five, though I think I did at least get all of last year's canceled shows out of this year's table... Though there's bold text above the table, I'll restate it here: shows that haven't aired an episode yet are not in the table, and like the Renew/Cancel Index this is only scripted shows.

Other than the all-in-one table format, there aren't currently many differences between Bubble Watch and the Renew/Cancel Index -- there usually aren't, so that's not a big surprise. The biggest difference -- and I don't consider it very big -- is Nikita and I wrote about that last week, so if you're interested in why the Renew/Cancel Index has it at likely renewal and I have it on the bubble you can click the link to last week's post. That Nikita was up in the preliminary numbers 100% over last week (from a 0.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 0.4) is perhaps a good sign...but, I'm waiting to see the final numbers on Monday before considering whether that sways me any.

I also have knocked Don't Trust The B--- in Apt 23 down to likely cancellation. The R/C had it as a toss-up last week, but I had the benefit of an additional ratings data point. Sure, maybe I should've tossed that data point out since much of New York was without power due to the superstorm...but I didn't. My thinking is that ABC will cancel at least one of its comedies, and it's currently the most likely candidate by a fairly wide margin.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
666 Park Avenue ABC Certain Cancellation
Last Resort ABC Certain Cancellation
Partners CBS Certain Cancellation
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC Too Soon
Malibu Country ABC Too Soon
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • RS

    @Joethehobo:

    Because 2 1/2 Men and TBBT make me (and apparently many others) laugh. That most joyous thing humans can bring forth – and what produces it, comedy, is the most subjective of entertainment genres. It’s not subject to analysis on the basis of intelligence levels or critical acclaim (such hubris to predict what will make another smile and laugh – sorry NBC Thurs. comedies). Happy Endings and The B did not make me laugh (and yes, I did give them a try).

  • JWB

    Bring back Chuck! Come on NBC!

  • Brad

    The Cleveland Show’s fate is getting more and more grim with each passing day.

    They wrapped production on the fourth production cycle a few months ago, and all the episodes are expected to air before the season finale in May. Given that episodes take roughly nine months to complete from start to finish, if it’s not renewed before the end of 2012, there is no way it will be back in September 2013.

    Sure it could air a shortened season, but after this season, they’ll have 88 episodes, which is enough for syndication, and FOX have been banishing the show to 7:30PM for a long time now…

    I say it’s done.

  • JD

    Happy Endings better get renewed…funniest show on TV, and was ABC’s second-highest rated show for a while last year. I love Apt. 23 as well…terrible time slot for both shows. Hopefully whatever one survives can go back to the safety of Wednesday nights. Neighbours does not deserve to be there.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “and was ABC’s second-highest rated show for a while last year”

    That, plus $4.75, will get you a Starbucks Venti Frappucino.

  • Oliver

    @Brad

    That’s my interpretation too.

    Fox renewing Family Guy and American Dad but pointedly not The Cleveland Show seemed always seemed like a statement of intent, doubly so since they’ve subsequently renewed Bob’s Burgers.

    I wouldn’t rule out a late renewal from Fox, but the signs aren’t good.

  • Terry Hoknes

    What are your new favorite TV shows debuting this season? Mine are: 1 MAJOR CRIMES / 2 THE NEIGHBORS / 3 PERCEPTION / 4 SULLIVAN & SONS / 5 ELEMENTARY / 6 LAST RESORT / 7 GO ON / 8 THE INBETWEENERS / 9 BEN AND KATE / 10 ARROW / 11 PARTNERS / 12 MADE IN JERSEY / 13 THE MINDY PROJECT / 14 GUYS WITH KIDS

  • joel

    Happy Endings had a few great episodes in the past, but other than that it’s one of the worst sitcoms on TV, painfully unfunny with characters so shallow they may as well draw them as cartoons.

  • omabin

    As far as new shows go, I think this season has nothing on last year, in which I found so many shows that I love, some of which are currently among my favorites nowadays (Revenge, Once Upon a Time, Grimm, New Girl, Scandal, Person of Interest, Apartment 23, Hart of Dixie, even the canceled Terra Nova and The Secret Circle, and over cable Homeland and Suits), but I still found some very pleasant shows this year. I absolutely love Arrow, I think it is my favorite one. I also really enjoy Revolution, despite its flaws. And for comedies, I like Go On quite much for comedies and I enjoy Chicago Fire very much as well (three NBC shows, this is a WOW for me, since until this year, the only thing I would watch from NBC was Community and Grimm, ever since Heroes!). Then I also liked Last Resort and 666 but I just had to stop watching so that i would not get too attached when they are canceled. There is nothing else on thw cw for me besides arrow (i will try cult though), vegas was a disapointment for me and i don’t need another procedural so i don’t want to try elementary, fox has literally nothing to offer (will try the following though) and nashville was too boring for me so it’s also a no… It’s a pretty “meh” year then, although I am extremely happy with arrow.

  • Justin

    Maybe Mindy, B&K, HE, and Apartment 23 should get Multi-Cam and Live Audiences if UAN’s Change is good for their ratings.

  • Mace

    NO WAY

    Emily Owens MD is not going to be cancelled. I will not accept.

  • symsoa

    The list of TV series renewed and a shame …

  • wd

    I don’t want Apartment 23 to be cancelled! It is MUCH better than that loud and tacky 2 Broke Girls–heck, it’s better than it’s lead in, Happy Endings. I think maybe it would work on a different network…

    I can’t see CBS cancelling The Good Wife. It’s their only real “prestige” drama, and pretty much the only drama that gets any Emmy love. BIG mistake moving it to Sundays. I know they want more under-50 viewers. Well, I’m way under 50 and TGW is the only CBS show I regularly watch. Actually, I’m watching Survivor this season because I want to see how Blair Warner does!

    Glad to see Parenthood ‘likely to be renewed’…such a great, underrated show.

  • Sweetd

    The Neighbors as a likely renewal and Happy Endings on the bubble is everything that is wrong with the world.

  • Pepper

    This is the first year that all my shows are in the likely/certain renewal categories. Looks like I can breathe easy for now!

  • s0303

    emily owens is such a good show, too bad more people haven’t given it a try…

    i’m curious how much last man standing will drop next week considering about 90% of the viewer comments i’ve seen have been negative…and that’s not an over exaggeration :)

  • Justin121

    Emily Owens + Guys With Kids are NOT Likely Cancellations.

    Scandal, Good Wife, 9-0, Dixie, Nikita ARE likely renewals.

    Chicago Fire is *certain* renewal.

  • Glue

    @Austin Lauran

    Probably Modern Family, REVENGE, The Middle or Suburgatory

  • john

    How is it possible that tripe like the Neighbors can be renewed and an intelligent and warm show like Emily Owens cant even scrape up a few viewers? The dumbing down of the viewing audience I guess, I blame the mindless popularity of (un)reality shows.

  • Justin121

    @Austin Lauran

    REVENGE, Grey’s Anatomy (D’UH!), and Cougar Town.

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