Renew/Cancel Recap: Bubble Watch is Back and Can't Possibly Be Wrong About 'Fringe' This Season! (Or Can It?)

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 4th, 2012


The feedback I've received has overwhelmingly been "please give us back the old Bubble Watch table!" Even though there wasn't any difference in readership for the past month or so while I've tried variations of Bubble Watch that weren't exactly "Bubble Watch," the end of daylight saving time and the return to standard time seemed like a good time to give the vocal minority who really cares about the table format the table format they asked for. Due to rust and using last year's final table as a starting point their may be a mistake or five, though I think I did at least get all of last year's canceled shows out of this year's table... Though there's bold text above the table, I'll restate it here: shows that haven't aired an episode yet are not in the table, and like the Renew/Cancel Index this is only scripted shows.

Other than the all-in-one table format, there aren't currently many differences between Bubble Watch and the Renew/Cancel Index -- there usually aren't, so that's not a big surprise. The biggest difference -- and I don't consider it very big -- is Nikita and I wrote about that last week, so if you're interested in why the Renew/Cancel Index has it at likely renewal and I have it on the bubble you can click the link to last week's post. That Nikita was up in the preliminary numbers 100% over last week (from a 0.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 0.4) is perhaps a good sign...but, I'm waiting to see the final numbers on Monday before considering whether that sways me any.

I also have knocked Don't Trust the B--- in Apt 23 down to likely cancellation. The R/C had it as a toss-up last week, but I had the benefit of an additional ratings data point. Sure, maybe I should've tossed that data point out since much of New York was without power due to the superstorm...but I didn't. My thinking is that ABC will cancel at least one of its comedies, and it's currently the most likely candidate by a fairly wide margin.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Made in Jersey CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
666 Park Avenue ABC Certain Cancellation
Last Resort ABC Certain Cancellation
Partners CBS Certain Cancellation
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben and Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys with Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC Too Soon
Malibu Country ABC Too Soon
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Hart of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
  • David

    I’m waiting for Suburgatory & The Middle to be certain to be renewed. Plus The Good Wife will be back. It’s the only non procedural drama on the network. A Gifted Man & Made in Jersey both flopped and weren’t procedurals.

  • Steve

    As long as Revenge stays in Certain Renewal then I’m a happy camper

  • PoddSocks

    where is community?

  • Sean

    This guy is wrong. Vegas was already renewed for the whole season. Not saying it will be brought next season but it will make it a full season.

  • Brandy

    Sean, this is if a show will be renewed for next season, not if it’ll get a full season this season.

  • Holly Quixote


    This guy is wrong. Vegas was already renewed for the whole season.

    It got a back 9 order; it wasn’t renewed. There’s a difference.

    From the first line of the bright red text in the post:

    When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).

  • Holly


    where is community?

    This list only includes shows that have begun airing. Community will be added in February after its debut.

  • Devin

    @Austin Lauran

    Modern Family, REVENGE, The Middle, Grey’s Anatomy, One Upon A Time, and Suburgatory.

  • Mitchell

    666 and Last Resort are both really well written shows both have suspense and twists each episode.Especially 666 which is very creepy and well done. ABC continues to prove though that they have no taste and are not willing to give shows a fair chance to pick up momemtum in the ratings.

  • The End


    At the end of the day, it’s a business, it’s all about the money, and if you’re not performing you’re gone. If by sticking around you can earn a little more money for the network you stay. It’s a ruthless world out there.

    In some cases, a show may stick around because of sentiment but it doesn’t occur all the time.

  • Sel

    I think that The Mindy Project and Hart of Dixie are certain renewal or at least likely renewal

  • Honey Badger

    Now ‘Elementary’ should be Certain Renewal or Renewed

    ‘Elementary’ will air after the Super Bowl on CBS

  • Stephen

    It can right? RIGHT?!??!? RIGHT!?!??!?!?!?!?
    I’m gonna miss FRINGE.

  • Chris

    Huh. It feels really weird that there aren’t any shows I watch listed as “On the Bubble” right now. It seems like pretty much everything I cared about was always teetering on the brink of cancellation every year before this one. Then again, I don’t really care about most of this season’s new shows, so maybe that explains it.

    (Also, Community hasn’t come back on the air yet, and I expect that the ABSOLUTE BEST that show can possibly do is be “On the Bubble.”)

  • Debi

    I can not believe Fringe is being canceled. It has been one of the best shows on TV since its inception. Glad “Elementary” and “Grimm” are being renewed, both are excellent programs.

  • Debi

    Just noticed “The Mentalist” and “Last Man Standing” are on the Bubble….and shouldn’t be there. These are both excellent program and should be renewed.

  • tscchope

    @Debi Fringe should have gone on a ratings basis after season 3.
    @Rober t Seidman You’re not suggesting that if WB can’t syndicate Fringe, they’ll look to get Fox to show another season?
    Again, on ratings alone, Nikita is a certain cancellation.

    Last year WB signed a deal that shows it made could go to syndication after 3 seasons.Unsure whether that was with one network or all the big 4.That’s going to make the buble watch more difficult.

  • Geoff

    Thanks for bringing back this table format (from a non-vocal, till now, reader).

  • candy

    Totally on the money with my predictions so far this season, Partners & the B being at the top of my list to get axxxed

  • zee chen

    You have 3 of my favorite shows on the bubble, (and all in row too)
    The Good Wife
    The Mentalist

    Those are all excellent shows and I seriously hope they renew.

© 2015 Tribune Digital Ventures