Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 |  |
0.57 |
| Happy Endings |  |
0.63 |
| Private Practice | canceled | 0.64 |
| 666 Park Avenue |  |
0.65 |
| Last Resort | |
0.69 |
| Scandal | |
0.79 |
| Last Man Standing (F) |  |
0.79 |
| Castle | |
0.82 |
| The Neighbors | |
0.85 |
| Nashville | |
0.85 |
| Malibu Country (F) | |
0.91 |
| The Middle | |
1.00 |
| Suburgatory |  |
1.04 |
| Revenge | |
1.10 |
| Once Upon A Time | |
1.35 |
| Grey's Anatomy | |
1.45 |
| Modern Family | |
1.92 |
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Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second episode. If it weren't for hurricane Sandy, the 1.2 rating last week would have made it "certain to be canceled". As it is, I'll wait for one more week's ratings before dropping it there.
Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings I'm moving it to just "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the Cancellation Bear's soul.
Last Man Standing and Malibu Country both had nice premiere ratings for a Friday, and are currently "more likely to be renewed than canceled", but early predictions can change rapidly with new results. Stay tuned.
The mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.
Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. They're doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the cancellation bear. Read more about that here.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.
You have bubble for Happy Endings, but the text says likely to be renewed?
As long as OUAT, Revenge, and Scandal are running with great ratings, I’m good
“You have bubble for Happy Endings, but the text says likely to be renewed?”
Copy and past error, Will Robinson! Fixed.
Wouldnt Happy Endings need 2 more seasons to reach syndication? Had a 13 episode first season, and shows need 88 episodes for syndication right?
Praying that Scandal gets a third season. It’s one of the few shows that retains its audience week to week. The ratings may not be blockbuster, but it’s clear that it has a following.
Perhaps it’d do better if, I don’t know, ABC actually took the time to advertise it and do publicity for it!
“Wouldnt Happy Endings need 2 more seasons to reach syndication? Had a 13 episode first season, and shows need 88 episodes for syndication right?”
It would need more than one full season to reach 88, correct.
I really doubt 666PA will air 13 episodes with that most recent 1.3. With 3 more episodes to air in 2012, it’s ending with 9 episodes in total.
Praying Happy Endings is somehow renewed!
I think this shows will be cancelled:
Don’t Trust The B—- in Apartment 23
Last Resort
The Neighbors
666 Park Avenue
Scandal
Scandal has the best demo lead in with GA other than Modern Family that ABC has offer. If it can’t do better than a 2.0 with that it should be tossed off the cliff.
The only thing keeping Scandal alive is the fact ABC doesn’t want to P-off Shonda Rhimes by cancelling all her shows.
You should have dropped the B— to certain this week.
“I really doubt 666PA will air 13 episodes with that most recent 1.3. With 3 more episodes to air in 2012, it’s ending with 9 episodes in total.”
In my book, 9 = 13+/- a few. Your mileage may vary.
“You should have dropped the B— to certain this week.”
Being an internet publisher requires some compromises. That gets me another headline, maybe next week, maybe later!
“Scandal has the best demo lead in with GA other than Modern Family that ABC has offer. If it can’t do better than a 2.0 with that it should be tossed off the cliff.”
At least that’s the line the silly retentionistas would argue.
Lucky for Scandal fans, networks do not behave as the retentionistas think.
Well, as long as HE goes down too I’ll be happy.
One game down, four to go: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-34/#comments
@taylor
Praying Happy Endings is somehow renewed!
None of ABC’s other non-freshman sitcoms are actually produced by ABC, so I expect that they will tolerate fairly low ratings for Happy Endings in order to get it up to 88-100 episodes.
As long as Scandal..Suburgatory and OUAT are renewed Ill be happy. Don’t Trust The B was good while it lasted but I doubt ABC will give it another season.
Noooooooo!
Dear bear, please don’t eat the bitch in apt. 23!
If ABC’s Friday comedies continue to do well I could see them expanding that line up next season. If that were the case I think Happy Endings would be renewed. I could see ABC squeezing it into a potential two hour block of comedies on Fridays.
Praying for the syndication gods to save Happy Endings! Unless Apt 23 bounces back sharply this week (to a 1.8 at least) it’s a gonner, which is sad.
Revenge being 4th highest scripted show and being above avarage makes me really happy, I love that show (becoming my new Fringe!) and once it gets a third season it will get a fourth! And so OUAT!