ABC: 'Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :cry: :cry: 0.57
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.63
Private Practice canceled 0.64
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.65
Last Resort :oops: 0.69
Scandal :| :| :| 0.79
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.79
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.82
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.85
Malibu Country (F) :) :) :) :) 0.91
The Middle :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second episode. If it weren't for hurricane Sandy, the 1.2 rating last week would have made it "certain to be canceled". As it is, I'll wait for one more week's ratings before dropping it there.

Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings I'm moving it to just "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the Cancellation Bear's soul.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country both had nice premiere ratings for a Friday, and are currently "more likely to be renewed than canceled", but early predictions can change rapidly with new results. Stay tuned.

The mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. They're doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the cancellation bear. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Tony

    They should move Scandal to Sundays at 10 in the spring. It would fit good with Revenge and open up that post-Grey’s Anatomy slot.

  • Remote Patrolled

    Quick question – why don’t you include unscripted shows in the Renew / Cancel index. Would be good to see how Dancing With The Stars, Shark Tank, X Factor, Undercover Boss etc rank…

  • Alan

    I think Happy Endings would fit in well at TBS but I can’t imagine lightning would strike twice and both Cougar Town AND Happy Endings would get saved from the ABC axe and rescued by TBS. One network rescuing another’s failed sitcoms is so rare that it happening twice would be a miracle.

    One can hope, though…

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Remote Patrolled, we tried in our early years. Didn’t work.

  • Lynn

    I really hope Last Resort is up in the demo next episode. Maybe then it will have a fighting chance? i am really excited TGIF is back. It will be interesting to see if ABC expands it next fall and moves Shark Tank to another week day since it appears ready for some stiffer competition.

  • Mike S

    I could see ABC expanding their TGIF Comedy Block to 2 Hours, with Shark Tank finishing the night at 10/9. 20/20 will have to do specials, or be put on Friday’s as it doesn’t really go with anything on the Friday schedule. That would then leave two half hours to program with Happy Endings and The Neighbors. Leaving 2 spots open for comedies on Wednesday. I could see Scandal being moved to Sunday’s at 10/9 in Spring 2013. Leaving the Thursday 10/9 spot for one of ABC’s midseason dramas.

  • Jon

    Don’t trust the B is just bad television period. It had such a small sample size as a mid season replacement, ABC gambled with it by bringing it back and lost.

  • Jon

    Last resort is going to be another Detroit 187, well received by critics, and by those people who watch it, but for whatever reason has failed to bring in an audience. At this point it looks doomed, and if people haven’t flipped over to it by now, they aren’t probably ever going to.

  • Remote Patrolled

    @Bill

    May be worth a try again? I sense that people care a lot more about unscripted now given all the X Factor / Shark Tank comments. Just a thought!

  • Miguel

  • rob60990

    Its really too soon to start talking about a possible 2 hour comedy block on fridays. Lets at least see where both shows stabilize.

  • Ross

    It sucks because Happy Endings and Dont Trust the B are ABC’s funniest shows (no matter how many people will tell you Modern Family is funnier) but they’re stuck on ABC’s worst night (Tuesdays have never been very good for ABC comedies) and even worse now because of so much competition with all the networks airing comedies at the same time. At least HE will likely survive because of being close to syndication, but yeah DontTrustTheB likely isn’t much longer for this world.

  • Holly

    @Remote Patrolled,

    The issue isn’t just interest (though, there was much lower interest in the unscripted charts when they had them). While scripted shows will follow a general pattern for renewal/cancel decisions, unscripted shows don’t so a chart a la the renewal/cancel index would not be useful in predicting outcomes.

  • JC

    Dont Trust the B— was a good idea given to bad writers. It went from being all about a good girl being “stuck” with a bitch and the hilarity that should ensue to being all about “The Adventures of James Van Der Beek”.

  • SarahL

    I thought Apt 23 was a big hit with lots of buzz? What happened?

  • SarahL

    Ever since I read that Shonda Rimes is working on a sci-fi drama with a female lead for ABC, I have thought that the new show will get the prime slot after Grey’s Anatomy and Scandal will be cancelled. ABC gave Scandal a chance this season, but the ratings remain mediocre.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @SarahL, you thought wrong?

  • Rebecca

    I’m enjoying A23 this season. Hope it doesn’t die, but oh well. I enjoy these others more: Castle, HE, Middle, MF, LMS and OUAT. I sort of like 666PA but I’m going to quit watching anyway…it’s good but slow moving, and I seem to leave it for watching last online these days (like a chore, almost). I wish all the shows luck though. I miss Cougar Town, and I don’t get TBS (I’ll find the show online when it returns).

  • Spencer

    If Happy Endings doesn’t make it on ABC, i could see it moving somewhere like how TBS got Cougar Town.

  • Tim

    I could see ABC keeping LMS and MC on Fridays, maybe move two failing comedies (HE, DTTB) to Friday as well, and move Shark Tank to Thursday at 8…? Just an idea.

    Glad Modern Family, Suburgatory, OUAT, and The Middle will probably be renewed. Now The Neighbors needs to join that list!

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