ABC: 'Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :cry: :cry: 0.57
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.63
Private Practice canceled 0.64
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.65
Last Resort :oops: 0.69
Scandal :| :| :| 0.79
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.79
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.82
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.85
Malibu Country (F) :) :) :) :) 0.91
The Middle :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second episode. If it weren't for hurricane Sandy, the 1.2 rating last week would have made it "certain to be canceled". As it is, I'll wait for one more week's ratings before dropping it there.

Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings I'm moving it to just "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the Cancellation Bear's soul.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country both had nice premiere ratings for a Friday, and are currently "more likely to be renewed than canceled", but early predictions can change rapidly with new results. Stay tuned.

The mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. They're doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the cancellation bear. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • SarahL

    @Bill

    Okay, LOL! Guess, I was not paying close attention to the ratings.

  • Reed

    I don’t think they’re going to cancell Happy Endings at this point (being halfway to synd. will likely save them) but I don’t know if they’re gonna kept them at Tues @ 9PM since that obviously isn’t working. Where would they move it though? I guess if they don’t have any room on the schedule they could always open up space at 10PM because at that point they probably aren’t looking to attract any new viewers by then and it’s dedicated fanbase will watch it (or DVR/watch online) no matter where it is. They’ll kept it for as long as it takes to get enough episodes for syndication at least, even if they have to move it to some crappy timeslot (or on cable like Cougar Town) to get there.

  • FlorianN

    Last week I had some doubts, but this week I’m pretty sure. I think ‘The Middle’ is certain to be renewed by May. And.. I’m also confident about ‘The Neighbors’, which I think is likely to be renewed by May, given the circumstances..

  • Don

    Bill,
    In regards to Castle, the numbers for renew/cancellation are based only on the ratings. How much of a factor are the book sales, etc, to ABC renewing it that aren’t shown on just a pure rating renewal/cancellation system. (Like all other shows)

    The book sales appear to be pretty good as it usually will appear on the NYT Best Seller list when they’re released but I’ve never seen any $$$ of what that actually means and if it would be enough to sway ABC’s mind either way.

  • Justin121

    Scandal is better than a toss-up.

    Nashville is worse than a toss-up.

    This looks like yet another Drama Strikeout season for ABC (last season was a fluke?), but unlike 2008-2010, I think they won’t hesitate to cancel all dramas if they get more than 1 comedy hit.

    They already have Malibu Country, possibly Family Tools and How to Live, and finally The Neighbors.

    If 2 or more of these stick, they’ll cancel all dramas.

    Additionally, the face-saving drama this year could be one of the midseason dramas Red Widow, Zero Hour, and Mistresses.

    The only way Nashivlle sees a season 2 is if it doesn’t drop below 1.8 but it’s a long way to May. Last Resort and Park Ave. are dead.

  • The Watcher

    We watched Apt 23 frequently last year, despite the high “cringe factor” between the laughs. Didn’t make it through the first episode this year, doubt we’ll be back.
    I know, when it’s canceled it will be my fault…

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    ” How much of a factor are the book sales, “

    No way to really know, but are likely small compared with current TV ad sales and syndication revenues.

  • One

    America – you will begin watching Last Resort, or the purging will begin, starting with the lesser minds whose idiocy has led us to this disastrous outcome in the first place.

    You’ve been warned.

  • Brandy

    As long as OUAT is renewed-it’s Abe’s best show and one of the two abc shows I watch-I’m happy.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I personally wouldn’t mind if Last Resort stayed – IF they got on with the conspiracy behind the events in the pilot. As long as they waste time with this implausible submarine crap, and all the character showboating involved there, they’re doomed. This is a case of a show with considerable potential which shot itself in the foot by focusing on the wrong aspect of the premise.

    All the other shows I watch – Castle, OUAT, and Revenge – are safe as houses.

    I don’t watch Scandal, so I can happily tell Max – it’s DOOMED!!! Bwahahahahahahah!!!

  • Nick

    ABC Schedule for 2013-2014 season:

    ABC:

    Mon-
    8: Castle
    9: Revenge
    10: Rise & Fall (new)

    Tue-
    8: Shark Tank
    9: SHEILD (new)
    10: Zero Hour

    Wed-
    8: The Middle
    8:30: Suburgatory
    9: Modern Family
    9:30: Now What? (new)
    10: Birthright (new)

    Thu-
    8: Grey’s Anatomy
    9: Burns & Cooley (new)
    10: Nashville

    Fri-
    8: Last Man Standing
    8:30: The Neighbors (sadly)
    9: Malibu Country
    9:30: Crazy Gene (new)
    10: 20/20
     
    Sat-
    8: Shark Tank (R)
    9: Castle (R)
    10: Primetime: What Would You Do?

    Sun-
    7: AFHV
    8: OUAT
    9: Beneath (new)
    10: Body of Proof

    Dancing With the Stars moves to summer, and Happy Endings gets saddled onto a poor unsuspecting cable network a la Cougar Town.

    Cancelled-
    Don’t Trust the B in Apartment 23
    Last Resort :( :(
    Scandal
    666 Park Avenue
    Red Widow

    ABC needs a major makeover.

  • vikrammangat@yahoo.com

    Neighbours is ABC produced, not sure it will help, since its got a cushy night on Wednesday.

    Does Happy Endings move to TGIF, next season?

  • Jon

    @Nick….Where are you getting all these new shows for next year? Don’t those announcements generally come next May? Where are you getting this info from?

  • Al

    2013-14 dream Schedule

    Sunday

    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – Revenge or Nashville
    10:00 – Revenge or New show

    Monday

    8:00 – Shark Tank
    9:00 – New show from McG
    10:00 – Castle or Red Widow or New soap

    Thursday

    8:00 – 10:00 – Dancing With the Stars
    10:00 – Body of Proof

    Wednesday

    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – Suburgatory
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – New show
    10:00 – Scandal or Mila 2.0 from Shonda Rhimes

    Thursday

    8:00 – New show
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 – New show or Red Widow

    Friday

    8:00 – Last Man Standing
    8:30 – The Neighbors
    9:00 – Malibu Country
    9:30 – New show
    10:00 – 20/20

  • Kavyn

    I was so excited for 666 when I first heard about it, and I’m loving what I watch. It’s unfortunate it’s doing so poorly. Same with last Resort. All I hope is that they conclude properly.

  • Rishi

    I could see Happy Endings becoming ABC’s version of Rules of Engagement. i.e. getting renewed for the next 2-3 years with 13-16 eps a year and being the all-purpose replacement.

  • Rishi

    @ Al, you don’t have a DWTS results show on your dream sched.

  • Pete

    2013-14 Schedule

    Monday
    8: Dancing with the Stars
    10: Mistresses

    New shows will be crushed by the Voice on Mondays, so keep the schedule unchanged until midseason.

    Tuesday
    8: Dancing with the Stars (or Happy Endings/new sitcoms in mid-season)
    9: Castle
    10: New Drama (SHIELD)

    ABC can’t develop comedy blocks on Tuesday. Its comedies are too weak and DWTS is not a reliable lead-in. Castle will do terribly, but it pairs up well with DWTS, and acts as counter programming.

    Wednesday
    8: The Middle
    830: Suburgatory
    9: Modern Family
    930: New sitcom
    10: Nashville / New drama

    Thursday
    8: Reality show / filler
    9: Grey’s Anatomy
    10: Scandal / New drama

    If I were ABC I won’t launch a new drama at 8 at this moment. The timeslot is too harsh for a freshman drama and limits its chances of success like Last Resort.

    Friday
    Same. But if the comedy block works so well it can expand into 2 hours and move Shark Tank to Tuesday 8pm /Thursday 8pm.

    Sunday
    8: Once Upon A Time
    9: Revenge
    10: New drama

  • John

    Why are my favourite sitcoms always fighting for their lives, don’t trust the B and Happy Endings are so underrated, both great shows, hoping Happy Endings can be saved my syndication possibilities and Don’t Trust the B… well hoping for a miracle there, maybe everyone with a neilsen box will suddenly fall in love with it

  • Joe

    If ABC got Cougar Town to syndication, there’s very little doubt Happy Endings will get there. Don’t Trust the B, sadly, might not be as lucky though.

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