ABC: 'Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :cry: :cry: 0.57
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.63
Private Practice canceled 0.64
666 Park Avenue :oops: 0.65
Last Resort :oops: 0.69
Scandal :| :| :| 0.79
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.79
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.82
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.85
Nashville :| :| :| 0.85
Malibu Country (F) :) :) :) :) 0.91
The Middle :) :) :) :) 1.00
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second episode. If it weren't for hurricane Sandy, the 1.2 rating last week would have made it "certain to be canceled". As it is, I'll wait for one more week's ratings before dropping it there.

Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings I'm moving it to just "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the Cancellation Bear's soul.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country both had nice premiere ratings for a Friday, and are currently "more likely to be renewed than canceled", but early predictions can change rapidly with new results. Stay tuned.

The mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. They're doing worse than Pan Am did last season, but better than Charlie's Angels. For that reason, I still expect each to air 13 (+/- a few) episodes before assuming their final resting place in the belly of the cancellation bear. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • OliveGinger

    I wish 666 was doing better as it really has promise — American Horror Story meets Lost? Nashville has very few compelling characters — not really rooting for any of them makes it a less than watchable show. Apt 23 is not funny (it had a couple of interesting epps last year but that was it). Scandal is actually very witty and smart — not sure why its not doing better.

  • JD

    ^^ Ginger, Nashville is great, the best reviewed new show of the season by far, actually. I think most people find at least Rayna likeable, mostly because Connie Britton is awesome. Also, Apt. 23 is funny IMO, that’s a matter of opinion that you can’t just state. Scandal seems like a good show, but for some reason is not holding on to that lead-in at all.

  • eridapo

    I was looking at Walt Disney’s earnings report, and on the broadcast side they highlighted two shows as driving growth and revenue in their Broadcast TV portfolio — Castle and Once Upon a Time. I believe when they refer to programming sales they most mean “syndication revenue” and revenue from other sources beyond just advertising. I know Castle just went into syndication, but I am not aware of Once Upon a Time having a syndication deal.

    http://thewaltdisneycompany.com/sites/default/files/reports/q4-fy12-earnings.pdf

    Broadcasting
    Operating income at Broadcasting remained relatively flat at $915 million for the
    year as higher program sales, lower programming and production costs and higher
    affiliate and royalty revenue were largely offset by lower advertising revenues and
    higher equity losses at Hulu. Program sales growth was driven by Castle and Once Upon a Time, partially offset by lower home entertainment revenues primarily due to Lost.
    Lower programming and production costs reflected the absence of The Oprah Winfrey
    Show at the owned television stations and lower program write offs at the ABC
    Television Network. Lower advertising revenues were driven by lower network ratings, which were partially offset by higher rates, and a decrease at the owned television stations driven by lower political advertising. Higher equity losses at Hulu were driven by increased programming and marketing costs, partially offset by higher advertising and subscription revenues.
    For the quarter, operating income at Broadcasting decreased $9 million to $192
    million driven by a decline in ABC Television Network advertising revenues due to
    lower ratings and higher equity losses at Hulu, partially offset by higher program sales driven by Castle and Wipeout

  • ruudisss

    I would give 5 smiles to The Middle. Not only it’s a solid performer, syndication deal is not far now.

  • eridapo

    Includes ratings up until 11/11/12. 11/9 and 11/11 ratings are from preliminary info.

    Show CI
    Don’t Trust the B— 0.582
    666 Park Avenue 0.642
    Happy Endings 0.642
    Private Practice 0.652
    Last Resort 0.676
    Last Man Standing 0.722
    Malibu Country 0.783
    Scandal 0.803
    Castle 0.823
    Nashville 0.851 .784 if we exclude premiere
    The Neighbors 0.86 .792 if we exclude premiere
    The Middle 1.023
    Suburgatory 1.084
    Revenge 1.095
    Once Upon A Time 1.33
    Grey’s Anatomy 1.429
    Modern Family 1.938

  • Birdsht

    Cancel Apt.23
    It has lost everything that made it funny and different. Tonights episode was so bad I couldn’t even finish it. Whoever called season 2 the adventures of James Van Der Beek had it right. This show took the biggest nosedive I can remember of any show I followed. This season should have never been made, period. All 3 episodes were just steaming dog feces.

  • Max

    @Birdsht> I actually thought last night’s was very enjoyable. I do hope more people tune into this show.

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