CBS: No Fluke, 'Vegas' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.68
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.75
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.75
Partners :oops: 0.81
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.96
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.87

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The Cancellation Bear cautioned that if the 1.6 rating for Vegas two weeks ago wasn't a fluke, the show was likely to be canceled. It wasn't (it scored a 1.7 last week), and so now the show is likely to be canceled. Hurricane Sandy, power outages, the Giants sweep the Tigers, blah, blah, blah. As always, if the ratings change noticeably, the prediction will be adjusted.

It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel two of the following dramas CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas so they can have room to premiere 3 new dramas next fall. Read more about that here.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, there's no chance it gets a second season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Brian

    As long as The Mentalist, Blue Bloods, POI, and Vegas are running and have good ratings, I’m good! I don’t know why Vegas is in the slump its in because its a good show. The same goes for The Mentalist. It just had its 100th episode on Sunday, so the show’s good for syndication. It should get a few more seasons at least :)

  • Marc

    Vegas and CSI new York cancelled.

    Mentalist moved to Friday’s for it’s final season.

  • CBSviewer

    CSI: NY and The Mentalist will be Renewed for sure :-) Goodbye Vegas and The Good Wife !

  • THE OLD MAN

    And Vegas odds have The Good Wife looking good

  • Ricky

    Poor Vegas, now in the same place as Unforgettable last season.

    One game down, four to go: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-34/#comments

  • Fake Me Out

    And JAG begat NCIS, and NCIS begat NCIS:LA, and NCIS:LA begat ???? … why can’t Hollywood practice safe script and prevent all these begats?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    We predicted NCIS:Burbank more than 2 years ago:

    http://bit.ly/YDaiFs

    Just sayin’

  • darius

    Bill is this the first time when we have a spinoff of a spinoff of a spinoff or how do u wanna name it??

  • Jay S.

    Vegas is this year’s Harry’s Law, which invites the question:

    If 18-49-year-old viewers are all that matter, why even bother with a procedural set in 1960 with older stars? Why would a network even expect that it would be appeal to the target demo? Even the best of the retro-shows, Mad Men, isn’t exactly a smash ratings hit and broadcast knock-offs like Pan Am and Playboy Club were bombs.

    Just seems like Vegas was a longshot from the get-go.

  • lll

    They can bring CSI:NY back for a 13 season wrap up in the spring next season if any of the new dramas fail. I can also see them removing Undercover Boss from the fall schedule next season to make room as well (have it as backup). The other one will be Vegas. That will be three hours. Doubt they’ll cancel the good wife. Mentalist is 50/50.

  • Mon

    Out of the four bubble shows, I think CSI: NY is the safest from cancellation. It beat CSI: Miami and (kind of) Unforgettable for renewal so NY must be really profitable for CBS. If NY can beat Miami (which just had a big syndication deal with AMC) it certainly can beat TGW which, if it gets a syndication deal, will not be paid more than $750k/episode (USA pays the same for every episode of NCIS) and The Mentalist where CBS doesn’t get even a cent from syndication.

    The Good Wife and The Mentalist are nearly a tie but I’ll give the edge to The Good Wife.

    New NCIS means Vegas is gone.

  • Ben

    All in the Family begat Maude which begat Good Times. All in the Family probably begat more spinoffs than any other program in the USA. All in the Family was an American verision of a British show; Alf in the Family.

  • Jared

    @JS

    I couldn’t agree with you more. Vegas seemed like a long shot from the beginning. Not one single period drama seems to be a ratings hit. Don’t get me wrong I like Michael Chiklis and Dennis Quiad but they certainly don’t seem likely to pull in younger viewers.

    I doubt The Good Wife will get cancelled before CBS moves it to Fridays with Blue Bloods. I don’t care what the ratings might say.

  • Dan S

    I’ve been enjoying Vegas a lot more than I did Elementary. I’d say The Mentalist is the safest of the dramas mentioned to be bear chow. I’d think CSI NY is most likely to get canned along with Vegas. That show has had 2 stays of execution not sure it’ll get a 3rd chance.

  • Ultima

    @Darius
    Bill is this the first time when we have a spinoff of a spinoff of a spinoff or how do u wanna name it??

    I believe this is the longest chain of backdoor pilots for a series with three (JAG -> NCIS -> NCIS: Los Angeles -> new NCIS); the franchise was previously tied with CSI (CSI: -> CSI: Miami -> CSI: NY).

    Law & Order still has the most spinoffs (Special Victims Unit, Criminal Intent, Trial by Jury, Los Angeles), however they did not use backdoor pilots to launch the spinoffs.

  • Dianna

    The Good Wife is such an amazing show that if it does get cancelled I would love to see it possibly move to TNT for a couple of seasons.

  • tv#1

    With the recent announcement that CBS will be developing yet another NCIS series I think that means an extra CBS drama will be cancelled. Because of the success of the other two NCIS series that new NCIS show is pretty much a sure thing to make it onto the air in 2013.

  • Ultima

    @tv#1
    With the recent announcement that CBS will be developing yet another NCIS series I think that means an extra CBS drama will be cancelled.

    Nonsense. Just because CBS is developing another NCIS spinoff does not in any way imply that they will launch more than three new dramas next fall.

  • Ben

    All in the Family spinoffs, (and spinoffs from spinoffs), are as follows: Maude which was led to Good Times.
    The Jeffersons which led to Checking In.
    Gloria.
    704 Hauser.
    Archie Bunker’s Place was All in the Family renamed and changed from it’s original concept.

  • Randy

    They should just clean house, and cancel a lot of these shows. Too bad, they worry about syndication so much. To me, that doesn’t make a lot of sense though – syndication. The reason being is if a show is terrible in ratings within the 2nd or 3rd season, than who would really want to pick that show up for syndication. It doesn’t make much sense to me.

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