CBS: No Fluke, 'Vegas' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.68
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.75
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.75
Partners :oops: 0.81
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.96
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.87

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The Cancellation Bear cautioned that if the 1.6 rating for Vegas two weeks ago wasn't a fluke, the show was likely to be canceled. It wasn't (it scored a 1.7 last week), and so now the show is likely to be canceled. Hurricane Sandy, power outages, the Giants sweep the Tigers, blah, blah, blah. As always, if the ratings change noticeably, the prediction will be adjusted.

It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel two of the following dramas CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas so they can have room to premiere 3 new dramas next fall. Read more about that here.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, there's no chance it gets a second season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • C Whitty

    I’m no Vegas fan but I want a couple more data points before agreeing with cancellation, its certainly in trouble if it doesnt improve though.

  • Croq

    Well, at least Vegas has a full season order, so I should be able to enjoy one season of it before the cancellation bear snatches hold.

  • Jon

    It’s too bad that a show such as Vegas that averages about 11-12 million viewers a week is considered a failure. I wish total viewership meant more than it does. Funny how advertisers crave the younger audience, but they are the group of people most likely to channel flip during the commercials anyway. I know I do, and being 38 I’m in the age range of the key demographic. I’d just like to see an even playing field where every viewer is treated equal.

  • BigBrotherFan

    vegas needs retooling

    FIRST Jason O’Mara

    Since they have decieded to INSULT the viewers intelligence by now saying that Headley character is now Quiads soon when it was clarly stated in the first 3 episodes that it was supposed to be O’Maras son-FIRE O’MARA! Useless. Bringing down DEMO need to focus more on Taylor Headley and one female casino manager BETTER YET!!?? Why not pair THEM UP! I about laughed myself into a fit when they attempted to pair O’Mara with her-dude is like 15 years older. Hes weak and has to go.

    PLEASE FOCUS more on the plot with Chikilas and Quaid and not-so much of this case of the week crap! More focus on Chikilas would be nice in general.

    SMART MOVE bringing in the WIFE!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Jon, your laments about ratings would be no different if total viewership mattered. Vegas has among the lowest viewership of any CBS drama. It would be dead either way.

  • Jon

    @ Bill Gorman, I guess you sort of boxed me in with that one lol. Sometimes I forget that so many of CBS dramas that get cancelled every year would be hits on other networks. CBS standards are that much higher, which is good. It is also why for many years the quality of the shows on CBS are above par. It’s most certainly my network of choice overall.

  • RG-X

    I already said it would be cancelled before the first episode of Vegas aired.

  • rob60990

    Another NCIS is totally unnecessary. How about trying something original or did CBS forget how to be creative?

  • Nick

    @Jon, Right with you on this show. Chiklis is one the best drama actors on TV.

  • Brian W.

    With Elementary getting the post Super Bowl Spot this year, I’m sure their ratings will increase. I would guarantee that it will be renewed for next year. Has there ever been a post Super Bowl show that has been canceled the next season? I don’t believe so.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @rob60990, creative? Debatable. How to make money? No.

  • Ram510

    It’s time for Partners to go, it’s long overstayed its welcome

    As for Vegas, they need to move it to Saturdays mid season and replace it with something else

    Maybe Elementary should certain renewal now that it has the post Super Bowl spot. Has a show ever had the post Super Bowl slot and then cancelled the following May? I can’t remember any show, it’s pretty much renewed

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Brian W, good point.

    While the line between likely and certain arbitrarily falls at 1.0 (fact is, the only “likely” shows that have ever not been renewed are a couple that were old and expensive like House and Heroes) Elementary will move to certain next week.

  • Ram510

    @Brian

    Wow we had the same exact thought, great minds…

  • Dan

    This is off topic but CBS is returning Made in Jersey to burn off on November 24 and December 1

  • Dan

    And with Vegas and Golden Boy likely to be axed and CBSs veterans down from last year Elementary is certain to be saved

  • POI

    POI should be certain for renewal, its ratings are good, really good for cbs.

  • Matt

    Sunday’s 60 Minutes,Amazing Race,Survior,Good Wife
    Monday’s Comedies/Hawaiian 5 0
    Tuesday’s NCIS with the new one in Florida
    Wednesday’s Mentlist,Criminal Minds,Vegas
    Thursday’s Comedies from 7pm to 9pm,Elementary
    Friday’s Person of Interest,Drama,Blue Bloods
    Saturday’s Underclover Boss,Drama,48 Hours

  • Justin121

    It’s virtually certain that CBS will cancel two of the following dramas CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas so they can have room to premiere 3 new dramas next fall.

    The Mentalist bites the dust.

    Next.

  • CrimTV

    @Bob

    I was reading the 2010 CBS schedule you posted and I seriously thought it was real until I saw you put “How I Met Your Father” and “Two and a Half Women”. Oh and “Undercover Flunky” LOL :D

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