CBS: No Fluke, 'Vegas' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.68
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.75
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.75
Partners :oops: 0.81
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.96
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.87

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The Cancellation Bear cautioned that if the 1.6 rating for Vegas two weeks ago wasn't a fluke, the show was likely to be canceled. It wasn't (it scored a 1.7 last week), and so now the show is likely to be canceled. Hurricane Sandy, power outages, the Giants sweep the Tigers, blah, blah, blah. As always, if the ratings change noticeably, the prediction will be adjusted.

It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel two of the following dramas CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas so they can have room to premiere 3 new dramas next fall. Read more about that here.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, there's no chance it gets a second season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • CrimTV

    ^ sorry I meant @Bill

  • Court

    I WENT CSI:NY BACK IF They get big fan .

  • John A

    I think another NCIS Spinoff is a good idea. Be a strong Tuesday Night with 3 of them.

  • omabin

    I think we are looking at something like this next year:

    Monday:
    Mike and Molly
    New Comedy
    2 Broke Girls
    Golden Boy (??)
    Elementary

    Tuesday
    NCSI
    NCIS LA
    NCIS New (New Drama)

    Wednesday
    Same

    Thursday
    Big Bang Theory
    Two and a Half Men – final season
    Person of Interest
    New Drama

    Friday
    The Good Wife/Undercover Boss
    CSI NY
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    The Amazing Race
    Hawaii Five-0
    The Mentalist

    This would be premiering two new dramas and 1/2 new comedies. Why are you so keen that CBS will cancel another drama? This schedule has room for everything and I am still premiering two shows. I am just saying because the truth is that I don’t believe CBS wants to premiere new shows on Sunday/Friday graveyards (especially after the Made in Jersey fiasco), and with Tuesday already with a new show and a new show also on Monday or Thursady (depending if they move elementayr to monday or not), the only other way to premiere a new show would be to move somehting like CSI/POI or Elementary to Sunday/Friday, which I do not see happening. I don’t know, I just don’t see the whole “one of these three will be done” as such an assured thing.

    Also, on the comedy front, I think CBS is in very bad shape. I put golden boy there but i don’t actually seeing being a success, especially being launched at midseason, which is never good for CBS. If it is also done, this means they would need to premiere two new shows on Monday if Mother is done.I think they may end up paying the mother stars want they want in the hopes that next year they find another 2 broke girls, because they desperatly need another one. In fact, if it comes down to one out of two and a half men or how i met your mother, i think cbs should stick with mother because the loss of the post big bang theory half hour is not that bad, especially as poi is a good self-starter, but the premature loss of mother could collpase the entire monday night

  • Bad Wolf

    Vefas is probably dead. Now, among CSI : NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist, the most logical candidate for the axe is of course CSI : NY. It’s by far the lowest rated of the three, its current numbers, even for a Friay, are way too low, and after 9 seasons, it must be more expensive than the other two.

    The simple thought of an all-NCIS Tuesday next season makes me sick : more bore, way to go, CBS ! The spin-off of the spin-off of the spin-off, how original, how ambitious !
    If a 3rd NCIS sees the light of day, it will be the lowest rated one, just like CSI : NY, and given how old mother and grandmother are skewing, I doubt daughter will do much better than the previous two failures : Unforgettable and Vegas (two cop shows… how surprising !)

    The Good Wife is a weakening beacon of quality, ambition and talent on the CBS drama line-up. The day its series finale airs (maybe as soon as this season), CBS’s drama universe will turn into a gloomy and lifeless world, full of endless and boring cop shows all using and overusing the same old formula, all populated by poorly written and artificial characters (the will they/won’t they couple and the green pl… sorry the “team”) and all potential cemeteries for former movie or TV star careers (R.I.P. Jamie Lee Curtis’s career, the days of Halloween and True Lies are long gone). A world from which words like risk, complexity, subtlety, thought provoking, ambition will be banned.
    The worst of it is that CBS execs are actually right to follow this way : people like it ! Why should they try to launch different, original, ambitious shows when people just want more and more of the same ?

  • vegaslover

    Great actors, great premise, just not right for CBS.

  • Paul

    Please move The Good Wife to Fridays for another season. The Mentalist and CSI:NY have off-network deals. The Good Wife does not – this may factor in. I haven’t heard any announcements that The Good Wife, even though it will hit the “magic” number, has received a deal yet. I feel this will affect its renewal chances tremendously. No deal? The Mentalist stays. Deal? The Mentalist is gone. CSI:NY and either The Good Wife or Mentalist gone – please be The Mentalist!

    I actually like the idea of moving Survivor to Sundays. CBS has to counter program. Football, animation, and dramas — make Sundays reality!

  • Brandy

    Love seeing certain renwal next to 2BGs, only CBS I watch and the best comedy on tv.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Bill: “We predicted NCIS:Burbank more than 2 years ago”

    No, no, no. NCIS: Barstow. Don’t you remember the old Johnny Carson schticks? Or are you too young? :-)

    HFO and PoI are good – so I’m good here.

  • benj

    I love The Mentalist and Person of Interest. I’m sure these will be renewed.

  • Nick

    @omabin

    Golden Boy is a drama, lol. Friend Me is the comedy CBS has on the shelf for midseason.

  • Nick

    CBS 2013-2014 schedule:

    Mon-
    8: Untitled The Brady Bunch sequel (new)
    8:30: Mike & Molly
    9: 2 Broke Girls
    9:30: Untitled Vanessa McCarthy project (new)
    10: Elementary

    Tue-
    8: NCIS
    9: Untitled NCIS: LA spinoff (new)
    10: NCIS: Los Angeles

    Wed-
    8: CSI
    9: Criminal Minds
    10: Darkness Falls (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Big Bang Theory
    8:30: Two and a Half Men (final season)
    9: Person of Interest
    10: Intelligence (new)

    Fri-
    8: Undercover Boss
    9: Blue Bloods
    10: Hawaii 5-0

    Sat-
    8: NCIS (R)
    9: The Mentalist (R)
    10: 48 Hours Mystery

    Sun-
    7: 60 Minutes
    8: Survivor
    9: The Amazing Race
    10: The Mentalist

    The Good Wife final season on tap for midseason.

    Cancelled-
    Partners
    Vegas
    CSI: NY
    Friend Me
    Golden Boy

  • Dan

    @justin. Actually despite being owned by WB i think Mentalist has the best chance. It builds on Good Wife every week and if CBS cant get a syndication deal than they may as well cancel it. CSI NY is 50/50. CBS can always get episodes for syndication however the Show escaped death the last two seasons. The Show should wrap itself up nicely however.

  • Mon

    @Bad Wolf
    It’s by far the lowest rated of the three, its current numbers, even for a Friay, are way too low, and after 9 seasons, it must be more expensive than the other two.

    That’s been the case since CSI: NY moved to Friday two years ago. So obviously, CBS must have been looking at other factors.

  • Justin121

    Another NCIS is totally unnecessary. How about trying something original or did CBS forget how to be creative

    They did.

    About four CSIs ago…

  • vikrammangat@yahoo.com

    About time NCIS 3.0
    It sounds alot like what Criminal Minds did with there spinoff.

  • Hepha

    Even with a third NCIS on the air, I don’t think CBS will order more than three dramas. They just don’t want to take any chance to fail again with new flop dramas (for instance Vegas and Made in Jersey).
    So Vegas is probably already dead.

    Between TGW, TM and CSI NY, please cancel TGW ! :D

  • bsp

    Another way of looking at these numbers is to note that Elementary is the only success story among CBS’s new programs, and even that one is not a “slam dunk.”

    I’ve tried to support Vegas, but I find that the plot line moves too slowly for my taste. And I get Quaid being a tough guy, but he seems to have only one expression, in which he appears to be in acute physical pain.

    I’d much rather watch Covert Affairs on Tuesdays at 10 p.m.

  • jens2488

    Does anyone think that they will move TaaHM back to mondays midseason and launch Friend Me after TBBT. Put TaaHM at 8:30 and it will boost the whole night. 2BG would have a strong lead-in and could continue to build an audience at 9:00.

  • Brandy

    Dan, Mentalist is syndicated on TNT.

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