CBS: No Fluke, 'Vegas' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.68
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.75
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.75
Partners :oops: 0.81
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.96
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.87

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The Cancellation Bear cautioned that if the 1.6 rating for Vegas two weeks ago wasn't a fluke, the show was likely to be canceled. It wasn't (it scored a 1.7 last week), and so now the show is likely to be canceled. Hurricane Sandy, power outages, the Giants sweep the Tigers, blah, blah, blah. As always, if the ratings change noticeably, the prediction will be adjusted.

It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel two of the following dramas CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas so they can have room to premiere 3 new dramas next fall. Read more about that here.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, there's no chance it gets a second season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • CBSviewer

    2013-2014 schedule:

    Monday:
    8:00PM – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30PM – NEW COMEDY
    9:00PM – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30PM – Mike & Molly
    10:00PM – NEW DRAMA

    Tuesday:
    8:00PM – NCIS
    9:00PM – NEW NCIS
    10:00PM – Criminal Minds

    Wednesday:
    8:00PM – Survivor
    9:00PM – NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00PM – CSI: Crime Scene Investigation

    Thursday:
    8:00PM – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30PM – Two and a Half Men (final season)
    9:00PM – Person of Interest
    10:00PM – NEW DRAMA

    Friday:
    8:00PM – NEW DRAMA / Undercover Boss
    9:00PM – CSI: NY
    10:00PM – Blue Bloods

    Sunday:
    7:00PM – 60 Minutes
    8:00PM – The Amazing Race
    9:00PM – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00PM – The Mentalist

    I think a new NCIS would be very benefic to the two others (CSI effect). A new spin-off between NCIS (#1) and Criminal Minds (#3) would help it and NCIS: Los Angeles may help CSI.
    CSI: NY will be Renewed for a tenth season to permit Blue Bloods to have the same ratings.

  • Jon

    If a new NCIS is created, why put all 3 on the same night. Why not create another strong viewing block on another night.

  • Ryan

    Can somebody please explain this to me. Vegas averages, what, maybe 10 million viewers per week?…and it’s in danger of cancellation. Meanwhile Partners is averaging at least 4 million less than that. Yet It remains on the air, and I hear very little about it being in trouble. Is somebody out there just trying to keep me from seeing Rules of Engagement? Grr!

  • LisaNeedsBraces

    @Brian W.

    Has there ever been a post Super Bowl show that has been canceled the next season? I don’t believe so.

    Excluding the cartoons (Family Guy and American Dad, which both aired in a block with The Simpsons) you’d have to go back more than a decade to find a scripted show in its first season that aired in the post-SB slot.

    Everybody repeats the myth that the post-Super Bowl slot is somehow a boost for an existing show or helps launches shows, but where’s the evidence? The whole reason the networks stopped launching scripted pilots post-SB is because they kept failing. The last first season, non-pilot show to have a SB slot was The John Larroquette Show. It survived into the next season but the Super Bowl didn’t boost it (it got retooled between season one and two due to low ratings.) None of the existing scripted hit shows that have aired post SB recently (Glee, The Office, House, Criminal Minds) saw any noticable boost in their post-SB ratings.

  • rob60990

    “Can somebody please explain this to me. Vegas averages, what, maybe 10 million viewers per week?…and it’s in danger of cancellation. Meanwhile Partners is averaging at least 4 million less than that. Yet It remains on the air, and I hear very little about it being in trouble.”

    Did you miss where it says Partners is certain to be cancelled? Also Vegas got a full season & Partners did not. Both are getting canned anyways.

  • Greg

    If The Mentalist gets cancelled (which I don’t think it will), then NBC should save it. The Good Wife draws pretty much the same audience that NBC’s best Wednesdays and Thursdays shows does and The Mentalist manages to grow from it, even with the delays and whatnot. It’s perfect because unlike The Good Wife and Vegas, The Mentalist is not produced by CBS, so it’s safe to say that Warner would try to sell it elsewhere.

    And since Elementary and Scandal have turned out to be underachievers (but who knows if the Super Bowl will gives Elementary a boost), they could put The Mentalist back to its Thursdays at 10 slot and it could hit a 1.9-2.0, which’s great for NBC standards.

  • prison

    Possible CBS Mid-season schedule:

    Monday

    8:00 How I Met your Mother
    8:30 Friend Me/Rules of Engagement
    9:00 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 Mike & Molly
    10:00 Hawaii 5-0

    Tuesday

    8:00 NCIS
    9:00 NCIS: LA
    10:00 Golden Boy

    Wednesday

    8:00 Survivor
    9:00 Criminal Minds
    10:00 CSI

    Thursday

    8:00 The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 Two and a Half Men
    9:00 Person of Interest
    10:00 Elementary

    Friday

    8:00 Vegas
    9:00 CSI: NY
    10:00 Blue Bloods

    Sunday

    8:00 The Amazing Race
    9:00 The Good Wife
    10:00 The Mentalist

  • mike

    love american style > happy days > laverne and shirley >mork and mindy > joanie loves chachi..

  • Grimman

    I wanted to like Vegas.. I just find the characters as portrayed by the actors are unbelievable. Deleted from my PVR sad to say.

  • simsalabim

    Vegas & Good Wife are the only quality shows on CBS. It shows how stupid most people are.

  • LisaNeedsBraces

    CBS has Beverly Hills Cop for next season, which will get prime real estate, probably Thursday. It’s a known brand, they’ve got Eddie Murphy attached, and it will be a no-brainer to appeal to CBS’s target audience of men. Since Elementary hasn’t been able to hold on to POI’s male audience, Beverly Hills Cop will probably take its place next year.

  • Mak

    I still can’t believe that anybody watches NCIS: Los Angeles. That show is just dreadful.
    Even though Vegas is a good show, if it can pull a decent number on Tuesday night, then it probably deserves to go.
    CSI: NY – done
    Good Wife – How many offices does Peter Florek have left to run for?

    The Mentalist is still a good show with lots of viewers, just not that many who watch it on Sunday nights at 10. Plus, if you read the Hollywood Reporter story last week, it’s a big show internationally. I can’t see CBS pulling it , especially leaving the Red John mystery unresolved. Although, if that was supposed to be Red John in the limo at the end of the episode a couple of weeks ago, could the beginning of the end be in sight.
    Hope not; Patrick Jane is still a hoot.

  • CBSviewer

    @ Everyone
    I have a question:
    I was on Zap2it yesterday and I’ve seen NCIS with almost 22 million viewers for this season (to date) but according to TVBTN it never had more than 20.5 million this season. Does it mean TVBTN had wrong numbers ?

  • Dan

    @Jens2488 – i think its more likely that Friend Me airs post Big Bang and Mem xould take a break for 8 weeks. However CBS also has 13 Rules episodes and I think Rules will replace Partners. Since 2 Broke Girls weeks to have a longer future then Men CBS will probably keep 2BG where it is. @Bill – Does Friend Me have 8 episodes or 13?

  • NJ Viewer

    Too bad about Vegas. I really enjoy that show. As far as I’m concerned, they should keep it and cancel Mentalist, Criminal Minds, all the CSIs, and both NCISes.

  • Gary A

    One thing to take into consideration when it comes to network numbers and stripped syndication numbers for shows is that often local stations and cable stations are not as focused on the 18 – 49 demo as is the networks. They are often more concerned with total viewers in their local markets. That’s why BB or even TGW may out perform in syndication where their expecations are not measured the same way.

    Another thing that may make some difference in the way CBS looks at their 10:00 pm shows is that they feed viewers into the local 11:00 pm news. I have read that a large number of viewers in the 18 – 49 demo ( particularly 18 -34 ) don’t watch the newscasts that the affiliates local outlets so it really comes down to the total viewers. It’s odd that the viewers don’t matter to the network but do to the affiliates.

  • KJ Styles

    @NJ Viewer- Hell No! NCIS, CM, and Mentalist are ALL better than Vegas.

    I wanted to like Vegas because I’m a big Michael Chiklis fan, but it bored me after it’s 3rd episode.

    The new shows this season really suck save for Last Resort, which will sadly be cancelled, SMH!

  • Brandy

    Ryan, it’s all about the demo,not total viewers.

  • POIFanatic

    The Mentalist is an awesome show. This season has been more organic and the overarching story is developing almost every episode. CBS might prefer Good Wife over Mentalist even with lower ratings, since The Good Wife is produced by CBS and Mentalist by WB. I really like both shows, but if I had a choice to renew only one of them, I’d choose The Mentalist.

    I like Vegas, but its a mediocre show even with powerhouse actors. Whoever thought giving the smiley Quaid a bitchface all the time would work in their favors is a moron.

    Ah, I wish Elementary was scrapped. Too bad its getting the post-SB spot. POI deserved it. Heck, even 2BG deserved it more than Elementary.

  • JJF

    Another NCIS? I supposeit was inevitable. Will it finally be the one to flop? I think they might as well put it on after NCIS: LA and just make it one solid NCIS night. IF not, they should move NCIS: LA to Sunday and premiere the new show after that. CBS is losing Sunday’s, which is a pretty strong night for ABC. They might as well try to patch it up and it IS about time NCIS: LA stood on it’s own.

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