CBS: No Fluke, 'Vegas' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.68
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.69
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.75
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.75
Partners :oops: 0.81
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.96
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.87

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The Cancellation Bear cautioned that if the 1.6 rating for Vegas two weeks ago wasn't a fluke, the show was likely to be canceled. It wasn't (it scored a 1.7 last week), and so now the show is likely to be canceled. Hurricane Sandy, power outages, the Giants sweep the Tigers, blah, blah, blah. As always, if the ratings change noticeably, the prediction will be adjusted.

It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel two of the following dramas CSI:NY, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Vegas so they can have room to premiere 3 new dramas next fall. Read more about that here.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, there's no chance it gets a second season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @CBSViewer
    I was on Zap2it yesterday and I’ve seen NCIS with almost 22 million viewers for this season (to date) but according to TVBTN it never had more than 20.5 million this season. Does it mean TVBTN had wrong numbers ?

    Nielsen season averages are Live+7 when available (Live+SD for more recent airings) and include in-timeslot repeat airings while excluding any out of timeslot or special airings.

  • Ultima

    @Greg
    If The Mentalist gets cancelled (which I don’t think it will), then NBC should save it.

    There’s virtually no chance that NBC would pick up The Mentalist if CBS cancels it. In the rare instances that does happen, it is usually the producing network that picks up the show in order to improve its syndication value.

  • Dejah

    CSI NY is the only CSI I have ever liked so I hope its renewed.
    Even if the rating are not high for “Good Wife” it always seems to be saved so I don’t see it being cancelled.

  • Riff

    Vegas is this year’s Harry’s Law, which invites the question: If 18-49-year-old viewers are all that matter, why even bother with a procedural set in 1960 with older stars? Why would a network even expect that it would be appeal to the target demo?

    Because CBS barely gives a crap what the demo is when they own the show. “Vegas” was co-created by an 80-year-old man. I think they had a pretty good inclination of what kind of 18-49 numbers they were looking at here. They went ahead anyway. What does that tell you?

    How many times are you kids going to repeat your same tired mantra from your fearless leader Bill Gorman? It wasn’t true then and it isn’t true now. (Unless you work at NBC — in which case, my condolences.) And it’s really not going to be true within the next decade once the bottom falls out of broadcast television and everybody who isn’t CBS or ABC wakes up and realizes that a huge chunk of the “all-important” demo are no longer even watching in a way that they can be paid for anymore — and the scant few who are won’t have any money anyway thanks to ‘Hussein’s America.’ Advertisers buy a lot of different things. Particularly in an election year, which means, hello, political ads. You guys tried to get “Blue Bloods” and “Body of Proof” (both of which fetch good rates for their nights and do very well in W25-54, regardless of what you think they should be doing) canned. You failed. Enough already.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Riffster, “Because CBS barely gives a crap what the demo is when they own the show.”

    Except for shows like A Gifted Man, The Defenders, NYC 22….

    Oops!

    Does being a bitter old NYC ad man cloud your vision at times?

    I’m old too, perhaps older than you, but I seem to have escaped the bitterness that pervades your comments.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    I’m old too, perhaps older than you, but I seem to have escaped the bitterness that pervades your comments.

    some people accept reality (whether they always like it or not), others view reality as a personal attack against them. And apparently, others view reality as a personal attack against them perpetrated by BILL GORMAN!

  • TW

    Riff, that is a quite a post. Fyi, it’s never a good idea to speak/write when you are hot under the collar. However, one thing you wrote does provoke thought: what the young viewer will be doing in X years. And the answer is??? Nobody knows. I agree that young viewership may steadily decline with the continuing spread of broadcast network alternatives. Will this mean broadcast networks try to find a way to make better $$$ with the older viewer? That is also unknown. But for certain in 2012 advertising pays the big money for the favored demo. It is what it is…..

  • Riff

    TW, if you don’t understand ancillary or what CBS really “cares” about in regards to their in-house productions, then I’m not interested in explaining it to you. They can explain it to you themselves. And you and your leader can continue to stick your fingers in your ears and go LA LA LA LA LA when they do.

    Except for shows like A Gifted Man, The Defenders, NYC 22….

    “The Defenders” – rumored to have been canned because Belushi ticked off CBS. “NYC 22″, were you looking at some other HH ratings other than the actual ones? Because it was one of their least-watched shows. And it did worse than “CSI: Miami.” “A Gifted Man” was their least-watched show on Friday and, though it did OK, it was also the worst performer of the 3 shows they tried at 9:00 last season. They want to improve time slots, not unimprove them, so come up with better examples next time. But thanks for playing, here’s what you’ve won.

    (P.S. inclination = inkling. Yes, I know, I murdered the English language.)

  • Mike

    Vegas is a great tv show I have enjoyed it and am surprised that it isnt doing that well,and the mentalist is awesome so I really dont get why it isnt do well.CSI is the same thing with no main plot and am not a big fan and am not surprised that its doing poorly.

  • del

    I need a bit of help understanding why you are suggesting VEGAS is being considered for cancellation when its ‘numbers in millions of viewers’ watching is so high (14.85, 12.11, 11.78, 10.8, 10.75) compare this to:
    Arrow (4.14, 3.55, 3.51, 3.05, 3.75) okay, CW is a small network, not mainstream & this is there best effort to date
    Hawaii five-0 (8.06, 7.95, 8.39, 8.70, 7.53, 7.96) down 2-3 million from previous seasons
    Elementary’s similar viewership (13.41, 11.13, 10.91, 10.31, 10.49, 10.90) or
    Criminal minds slightly higher (11.73, 11.49, 11.81, 11.61, 11.99, 12.09) yet both of these you deem safe
    Good wife noticeably lower (9.93, 8.95, 9.12, 10.02, 9.51, 9.93, 9.02)
    CSI also lower (10.78, 10.70, 10.63, 9.95, 10.91, 10.33)
    Mentalist also lower (11.06, 9.02, 10.74, 8.10, 10.17, 9.11, 10.15) should be the focus of your cancellation theory
    I would say by the numbers , Vegas is looking pretty strong, in fact it is ranked fourth most viewed ‘new’ show on tv (after, Revolution, Elementary & Go On) Any input would be appreciated

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Riff, you bitter relatively young ad man, you.

    I have no doubt that much of what those folks say is true, but the fact remains that you don’t need to listen to any of it to make excellent predictions.

    Better get to mowing that lawn, the neighbors are starting to talk!

  • suicide_saints

    I am 29 and Vegas is one of my favorite new shows this fall… That and 666 Park Avenue, but it looks like both are going to wind up cancelled.

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