CW: 'Emily Owens, M.D.' Will Be Canceled, But What Goes With It?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.36
Emily Owens, M.D. :oops: 0.49
Gossip Girl final season 0.54
90210 :| :| :| 0.63
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 1.05
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.59
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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If the CW follows the pattern they’ve used the last several seasons, they’ll cancel 2 shows in addition to Gossip Girl’s announced exit, so they can premiere 3 new shows next Fall. Even with the Mark Pedowitz talk of more investment in programming, I don’t think they try and premiere 4 new shows in the Fall, and premiering just 2 new Fall shows is just as unlikely considering all his public chatter.

Emily Owens, M.D. is now certain to be canceled, but several scenarios could determine the second cancellation.

  • Does 90210 get a short final season? (currently, I assume it will)
  • Is Nikita on the Fall, 2013 schedule? (while I predict Nikita renewal for syndication purposes, I'm not certain it goes into the Fall, 2013 schedule)
  • If Cult or Carrie Diaries survives (who knows), each survival adds one to the number of Fall shows that would need to be canceled.

How can Nikita with absolutely "look away" bad ratings be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Because the folks at the CW seem to like short final seasons for their veteran shows, 90210 could be renewed for a 13 episode final season next year, even with its terrible ratings, that's why it's just a "toss up" for cancellation or renewal. They could certainly re-ealuate their penchant for short final seasons if schedule time next season gets tight though. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • CrimTV

    Emily Owens will either be cancelled by December or if they are really nice wait until May. Beauty and the Beast will either move to Emily Owens old slot or Fridays at 8pm in 2013 ready for Cult’s premiere on Thursday following TVD (PLEASE NOT TUESDAY). At the end of the season, Gossip Girl would have finished, I have no idea how Carrie Diaries will perform but I think that B&TB and Emily Owens will be cancelled and despite it’s low ratings, 90210 will get a final 10-episode season or so.

  • Brian

    As long as SPN, Arrow, and TVD are running with good ratings, I’m good :)

  • Anthony

    So my question is for next season with Supernatural. Clearly it is going to be renewed (third highest rated show). But what isn’t clear is where it will be on the schedule next year. The CW certainly can’t be crazy enough to keep it paired with Arrow. They HAVE to use that lead in to try and develop a new show. It wouldn’t make sense to continue to pair it with a show that is going to be in it’s 9th season. So when Supernatural does move, how does it perform being that it will be it’s 9th season, and on it’s 3rd night/time in 3 seasons?

  • Vance

    Anthony, I suspect that the CW will give up on trying to launch a new show on Thursdays and move Supernatural back there. Supernatural will do fine on Thursdays at 9 pm.

  • Lex

    @Anthony
    Honesty Arrows Demos is not really that high they can leave it where it is.
    Now TVD is still a very good lead in maybe they can pop another show behind it.

  • Tommy

    When are the contracts up for ‘Supernatural’? I can’t remember if it’s the end of this season or next…

  • CBSviewer

    @ Tommy
    The contracts for Supernatural ends this season but it’ll be Renewed for sure until season 10 :-)

  • Alan

    Emily Owens will end after airing 13 episodes, Beauty and the Beast, Hart of Dixie and Nikita on the bubble, TVD, Supernatural, Arrow, ANTM renewed
    90210 final season or an extra episode just to give closure. With GG ending, and if Carrie Diaries does well, it will stay. Move Beauty and the Beast to Fridays and they should give their slot to Cult, because it has Matt Davis on it.

  • Jared

    As a fan of 90210 from the beginning..I wouldn’t mind this current season being its last as long as the writers can come up with a satisfying finale.

    I can almost guarantee the renewals of Arrow..TVD..Supernatural and Hart of Dixie. For syndication purposes why can’t the CW air Nikita during the Summer? Its doing no favors for the CW during the fall/spring. B&TB is a toss up at this point. I personally like the show and will continue to watch but it’s certainly no break out hit..especially if you were to take away its strong lead in.

    The Carrie Diaries and Cult will have a little more leeway for renewals as long as there not DOA.

  • CrystallBall

    The CW can cancel more show this year since they have launched (5) more new shows. The trick is how ANTM will be replaced.

  • Michael

    I will continue to say this, CW need to invest in an after TVD post show. They can invite cast members/Julie Plec as the panel, have a live audience and discuss the episode. MTV does this with their popular shows. TVD fans only care about TVD, they don’t care or want to invest in another show after it finishes. This is why Getglue numbers are so high, fans immediately jump on their social networks to discuss the episode with other fans worldwide. This is my opinion!

  • Alex

    Anyone know if the CW only ordered 12 episodes of Emily Owens or if full season was ordered (22 episodes)? I thought I had read somewhere that they were only shooting a shortened season and I assumed either Cult or Carrie Diaries would replace it in the Winter.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Nikita & 90210 should pretty much be a given, but in the light of Nikita nothing anymore is a given

  • DC

    The Carrie Diaries should move into the Tuesday 9pm timeslot after HoD. 90210 will do nothing to boost a new series.

  • Justin121

    According to TV By The Numbers, 3 out of these will get cancelled:

    Emily Owens, M.D., Beauty & the Beast, The Carrie Diaries, Cult, Hart of Dixie, 90210, Nikita.

    Easy: it’s Emily Owens, Beauty & Beast, and one out of Cult and The Carrie Diaries. All veterans are safe.

  • Anthony

    Honesty Arrows Demos is not really that high they can leave it where it is.
    Now TVD is still a very good lead in maybe they can pop another show behind it.

    I agree the numbers in absolute terms are not *that* high but it is the networks second highest rated show (and therefor it’s second best launching pad).

    Anthony, I suspect that the CW will give up on trying to launch a new show on Thursdays and move Supernatural back there. Supernatural will do fine on Thursdays at 9 pm.

    It’s not a question of whether Supernatural would do well there, it’s what the network needs to do to save itself (which is launching new hit shows). If they just wanted to hold serve, they should leave Supernatural where it is.

  • Jared

    @Alex

    From what I’ve heard Emily Owens has not been picked up for a full season (22 episodes)..nor has it received a back 9 order. As of now I believe it has only gotten a few more script orders.

  • Michael

    I kind of feel bad for “Emily MD” fans, considering that Nikita has been performing terribly for quite some time now, yet the show is going to continue surviving (when nobody is watching it).

  • Alex

    Thanks @Jared. With their current ratings, Emily Owens will most likely not get that back 9 order. My guess is that they will let it air out until Holiday break and then put either Cult or most like Carrie Diaries in it’s time slot come January.

  • Justin121

    @Bill Gorman,

    I actually think Nikita, and not 90210, will be getting the final season treatment next year.

    Supernatural gets it the year after that (season 10).

    They turned 9-0 to One Tree Hill 2.0 with all the loud music and comedy/melodrama. I wish they turn it back to the dark soap it was during season 1-3.

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