FOX: Could 'The Mindy Project' Be Canceled Along With 'Ben & Kate'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 6th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 4, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) final season 0.48
The Mob Doctor :oops: 0.58
Ben And Kate :cry: :cry: 0.75
Raising Hope :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.95
The Cleveland Show :) :) :) :) 1.01
Bones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
Bob's Burgers renewed 1.10
American Dad already renewed 1.13
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Family Guy already renewed 1.51
The Simpsons already renewed 1.70

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Last week's plunge to a 1.5 rating for The Mindy Project raises the question of whether it might be canceled along with Ben And Kate. It certainly could, and that rating gets it  dropped to a "toss up" for cancellation or renewal.

Fox's The Mob Doctor is still certain to be canceled even if, as seems likely now, it airs through the month of November, and beyond!

Raising Hope is predicted as "certain to be renewed" even with its somewhat weak early ratings. While the syndication gods ruling Fox aren't quite as predictable as those ruling CBS, it would take nothing short of a cataclysm to prevent the show from getting a fourth season. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Sarah

    Nevermind.

  • Sara

    With the way Glee ratings are going I’m not that sure anymore

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Not sure I see the connection.”

    Pithy, phone snark about differing business models.

    The US broadcast studio TV business operates within a business model where broadcast shows are produced at a loss, and syndication is the big payoff.

    That payoff from both US cable and intl networks, is gigantic.

    Short episode orders mean more years of losses before syndication.

    Those moaning about breaks between new episodes should suggest how networks should fill the 35 week season otherwise.

    And the “scrap the whole thing” ignores existing economic reality and places one in the “whine for whining sake” camp.

  • Jeanette

    I am hoping that Halloween and Sandy may have impacted the low numbers for MINDY, and that once it has aired a few more episodes in a row (not with the few weeks off as it has been) that it will do much better :)

    I love the show, and hope it will be completely out of danger of cancellation next year!

  • Miguel

  • Alan

    @Bill

    But networks already a few years ago started changing their format, with some shows doing a “fall season” and “spring season” format. And then in the time inbetween (usually December-January) they can air specials, concerts, or shorter-run shows like small-order 8-12 episode reality shows. Or shows like Mobbed or The Sing Off.

    I believe ABC started it with Lost when they realized from fan outcry that reruns of such a serial don’t work. So they started a fall season with only new episodes, followed by a 2 month break and then a spring season. The show “24″ also never had any breaks in its run. I may be wrong.

    I don’t see why it is not in a network’s interest to help a show develop and foster an audience and therefore help it be on the air for many years. If the goal is to get to that syndication number, having one new show after another flounder won’t help either.

    I do appreciate what you are saying about the US business model being different, but there has got to be a different solution to what happened with Mindy and with Happy Endings last year.

    The odd rerun here or there may not be the end of the world, I am talking about airing 2 episodes and then a show disappearing for WEEKS on end and then returning in a new timeslot. How is that going to develop the audience required for long term stability.

  • Alan

    If you ran a fast food restaurant and spent millions promoting and developing a new sandwich, then launched it for only 2 weeks, but then pulled it from your menu, leaving it available only at certain locations on certain days of the week, without notice or information, before your customers developed any sort of devotion or taste for it, would your investment be worth it?

    Sorry don’t want to hog the air space, just rantin! :)

  • C Whitty

    @Alan @Bill

    Actually I agree with Alan, if a network wants to sell a series for syndication and to the international market, surely supporting said show with consistent scheduling would help build/consolidate the fanbase of the show thus making it appealing to cable and international clients for syndication.

    Shows in the UK pulled from scheduling in periods of their runs inevitably were cancelled such as Ultimate Force and Primeval although these were in the third and fourth seasons respectively when such movement occurred, but it is an indication that playing around with scheduling does affect the audience, if you wish to look at a more historical item that further suggests this, the scheduling mess of Dr Who under Colin Baker tells its own story.

    I am not here to tell the networks how or when to schedule but by placing shows on hiatus or moving them around in the majority of cases will not be helpful.

  • Rebecca

    As long as RH is hanging in there, I don’t care what else happens. But I am enjoying Mindy, BAK, New Girl and Bob’s Burgers. Mostly all online, but they’re my go-to’s with Fox.

  • Anon

    Looking for laughs among the Fox sitcoms
    Watching the shows, a clue for to see
    What’s gonna be the show that Fox cancels?
    Everyone knows it’s Mindy.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Anon, I am old enough to have LOL’d. ;)

  • Tim

    While I love Glee and the characters, I hate the format for this season. They are giving too much time to the boring new characters, while they should have more of the old characters with more of a major role this season. All the good singers graduated too, with Rachel and Kurt the only graduates who actually sing now, so this season pretty much sucks for me.

  • Justin121

    I just realized that out of FOX, ABC, and CBS, ALL new shows could be cancelled.

    Is that possible? Has that happened before?

    The only fall shows of these 3 that could make it is (Superbowl-boosted) Elementary. Midseason replacments aren’t looking any better.

    Wow, the nets are having a terrible season.

  • Renven8er

    Explain to me how with a 1,5%, FOX (the #1 network in adults 18-49) will keep The Mindy Project?

    It’s certain to be canceled !

  • AJ

    I can see FOX moving Mindy to 8:30, cancel Ben and Kate and place the Goodwin Games after New Girl.

  • moraliste

    Re Matthew’s comment above: The first time I tried to check out Mindy, it was literally interupted in mid-sentence by a rain-delaye4d playoff game. I never went back to it. There are so many new shows like Mindy the past two or three years, shows whose endless promos cause them to look repulsive to me, that I feel honor-bound to watch a few of them, based on the often broken rule that you shouldn’t condemn what you haven’t sampled. ( I also watched an entire episode of the B—- in Apt. Whatever. Because of the tall brunet, who actually did a good job in it.) I think the ratings reflect accurately, as they sometimes do, the overall quality of this latest Hot New Sitcom Concept.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Explain to me how with a 1,5%, FOX (the #1 network in adults 18-49) will keep The Mindy Project?”

    Fox’s average rating for new scripted shows last week was 1.76, that’s how. 1.5 isn’t that far below.

  • Feedback

    @Bill

    Shows like Grey’s Anatomy and Modern Family could use 30-episode seasons. Why not? Obviously people are eating up trhe episodes. What they should do is 2 volumes of 15 straight episodes with a 5-week winter hiatus in between.

    The networks should order a BUNCH of new series with short seasons. 6-8 episodes per show and fill in ALL the gaps and avoid repeats. Like that, they have a higher chance of getting a hit and don’t get to waste space on the 35-week season.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    I usually love Bill’s snarky responses, especially when they raise points that people don’t consider. The discussion about the UK’s “television tax” was unexpected in this thread, but I’ll bite.

    We ALREADY have a system in which shows run only three months or so without repeats. These are all on cable. You can call the monthly fee a “tax” if you want, but only if it makes you happy. As for what the broadcast networks do, suggesting they follow any other country’s model is crazy. US television is still the most creative and most successful in the world. It is a testament to why free markets are always the best.

    I love British television (or, more to the point, I love many shows produced in the UK). But there is no way that I’d want to have to pay a television tax in order to get a bunch of stuff that doesn’t really come with many choices. I’m far too familiar with the US model which is fairly decent. I’d rather get ~22 episodes during ~35 weeks rather than ~8 episodes ever 52 weeks whether or not there are reruns or hiatuses. But that’s just me.

    Long story short, we have the standard US system and a system that is close to what you see in the UK. The difference is that, here, both systems generally require that shows make a profit for the networks on which they air and/or the studios that produce them. Most importantly, there are no government provisions (including quotas) as to what sort of programming must be aired how often, etc.

    Free markets always win every contest.

  • Nick

    @Feedback

    Shows like Grey’s Anatomy and Modern Family could use 30-episode seasons. Why not? Obviously people are eating up trhe episodes. What they should do is 2 volumes of 15 straight episodes with a 5-week winter hiatus in between.

    It’s physically impossible to put 15 episodes between late Sept. and early Dec. Also, with 15 episodes in the latter half of the season, they would run out by May sweeps. Something like 12 fall 18 winter would be better.

    Why are you even talking about Modern Family and Grey’s? This is a Fox post.

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