ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, Why Are They Still On The Air?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 13th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 11, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :cry: :cry: 0.58
666 Park Avenue :oops: canceled 11/16 0.64
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.64
Private Practice canceled 0.65
Last Resort :oops: canceled 11/16 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.72
Scandal :| :| :| 0.79
Malibu Country (F) :) :) :) :) 0.80
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.82
Nashville :| :| :| 0.85
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.86
The Middle
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
1.02
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.94

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11/16 Update: Last Resort & 666 Park Avenue were canceled.
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Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season, why are they still on the air (along with Partners, The Mob Doctor and Emily Owens)?

Robert noted that the difference in the number of shows that have been yanked off the air isn't much different than last season. Why leave the losers on the air? The best guess is that economically it no longer makes sense for the networks to stock so many "extra" replacement shows, and any replacement options work out negatively for them even vs. airing a dead show. Sticking with the losers through 13 episodes is the economically less painful decision. That fans continue with hope for those failed shows isn't surprising, but if they followed the Cancellation Bear, they might save themselves some surprises.

In ABC's case, they have one veteran drama (Private Practice), and two failed rookies (Last Resort, 666 Park Avenue) that they didn't have the bench to replace early (nor could any early replacements have been marketed effectively). Instead of taking the rookies off the schedule early, as they did with Charlie's Angels, My Generation & The Whole Truth in recent years, they're leaving them on the schedule until they burn through their 13 episode orders (and may even get an extra episode or two like Pan Am did)

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second episode. If it weren't for hurricane Sandy, the 1.2 rating last week would have made it "certain to be canceled". As it is, I'll wait for one more week's ratings before dropping it there.

Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings it's going no lower than a "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the cancellation bear's soul.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country both had nice premiere ratings for a Friday, but were down sharply to a 1.6 and 1.7 rating in their second episodes. That's still "likely renewed" for a Friday show, but further declines threaten those predictions.

Even with full season orders for this season, ABC's mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • dan

    Because The Middle is not to be renewed certain?

  • brittney

    Suburgatory is ABC’s second highest rated comedy? Gooo Suburgatory, awesome for The Middle too.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Because The Middle is not to be renewed certain?”

    Whoops! I forgot to make that change this week. Now fixed.

  • Dan

    Well Next week I expect ABC to make a decision on 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort. And both will air All episodes through December/January with replacements coming in January. Apartment 23 has 19 episodes this seasons no more no less, and I expect them All to air.

  • Alijah

    I really like Last Resort, and Andre Braugher is amazing in this show. Unfortunately, as I learned last year with Harry’s Law, quality of a program does not overcome bad ratings. smh

  • Mike

    Happy Endings’ first season was just 13 episodes, even by the end of a hypothetical season 4 they’ll have only 79, just short of the magical 88.

  • Brian L.

    Last Resort is one of my favorite new shows, but I will be happy if it can just have a decent ending. The concept is kinda finite anyway and might be better served as a whole to have an airtight conclusion. I am hoping those extra couple of episodes will offer that closure.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Happy Endings’ first season was just 13 episodes, even by the end of a hypothetical season 4 they’ll have only 79, just short of the magical 88.”

    Still, not an impossible task for Sony to engineer. They got both a 3rd and 4th season for ‘Til Death, which had even more woeful ratings.

  • Brian

    Glad to see OUAT and Revenge in the top rated shows :)

  • a p garcia

    Also why are Parters andThe Mob Doctor still on the air. LR is good excuse some pea brained ABC executive and military hater wants it to air opposite TBBT.

  • Dan

    I’m assuming that 666 Park Avenue will air all 13 planned episodes as I read on msn.com that their set was destroyed by Hurricane Sandy and they were rebuilding it…why rebuild it if you don’t plan on airing all 13? I also hope that it gets a few more episodes just to give it a conclusion (hope the same for Last Resort even though I don’t watch it). I think it makes the most sense since they obviously are not going to renew either one.

  • Ram510

    It’s funny to see the mistakes ABC is making. How do you keep Apt 23 and put Neighbors on Wednesday and ship Cougar Town away. I’m sure that if Cougar Town was on the Wednesday schedule it would be doing better than both of those shows. But its fine I guess only about 2 months until the TBS premiere, can’t wait!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I’m assuming that 666 Park Avenue will air all 13 planned episodes as I read on msn.com that their set was destroyed by Hurricane Sandy and they were rebuilding it…why rebuild it if you don’t plan on airing all 13? I also hope that it gets a few more episodes just to give it a conclusion (hope the same for Last Resort even though I don’t watch it)”

    Although I predict both will air 13 +/- a few episodes, I wouldn’t predict that there will be any kind of “conclusion” for either. That’s just not how it typically works for failed freshman shows.

  • Nope

    CASTLE and THE MIDDLE need to survive

  • TomSFBay

    Shows are still on the air despite the low ratings because networks have paid for them. Better to recoup a small amount of ad revenue than none all together.

    The other thing that I find strange that networks don’t do is relaunch their failed shows in the summer months. They have nothing to lose by doing this as far as I’m concerned. Scripted dramas, even the hit ones, don’t repeat well at all, so why not relaunch them and get a little extra revenue for them???

    We all know that Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue won’t go beyond 13 episodes. What if they re-aired those repeats in June/July. They likely wouldn’t do any better or worse than a repeat of Greys Anatomy or OUAT. And just what if they manage to find an audience??

  • Ricky

    I have to say this once again: When ABC announces a timeslot for Zero Hour, it better not be Thursdays at 8. That would be the perfect way to kill it.

    Two more winners in two more days? It could be done! http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-43/#comments

  • Tom

    “The best guess is that economically it no longer makes sense for the networks to stock so many “extra” replacement shows, and any replacement options work out negatively for them even vs. airing a dead show.”

    This reasoning sounds familiar!

    But yes, if Fox is willing to eat 0.9s (in sweeps!) for Mob Doctor, then “production halted” cancellations are a thing of the past.

    No backorder is the new production halted.
    Partial backorder to reach/go though Feb sweeps is the new nearly certain cancellation at the end of the year.
    Full backorder is the new bubble.

  • glover

    Damn, ABC have a lot of good or great shows that are in trouble… Apt 23, 666 Park Avenue, Happy Endings, Last Resort, Scandal and Nashville deserve better ratings. And is so sad to see a crap like The Neighbors performing better than all of those…

  • Michael

    Random, but I’m enjoying “666 Park Avenue” more than I’m enjoying this season of “American Horror Story.”

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “This reasoning sounds familiar!”

    I reserve the right to appropriate intelligent comments into my own reasoning!

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