ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, Why Are They Still On The Air?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 13th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 11, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :cry: :cry: 0.58
666 Park Avenue :oops: canceled 11/16 0.64
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.64
Private Practice canceled 0.65
Last Resort :oops: canceled 11/16 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.72
Scandal :| :| :| 0.79
Malibu Country (F) :) :) :) :) 0.80
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.82
Nashville :| :| :| 0.85
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.86
The Middle
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
1.02
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.94

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11/16 Update: Last Resort & 666 Park Avenue were canceled.
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Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season, why are they still on the air (along with Partners, The Mob Doctor and Emily Owens)?

Robert noted that the difference in the number of shows that have been yanked off the air isn't much different than last season. Why leave the losers on the air? The best guess is that economically it no longer makes sense for the networks to stock so many "extra" replacement shows, and any replacement options work out negatively for them even vs. airing a dead show. Sticking with the losers through 13 episodes is the economically less painful decision. That fans continue with hope for those failed shows isn't surprising, but if they followed the Cancellation Bear, they might save themselves some surprises.

In ABC's case, they have one veteran drama (Private Practice), and two failed rookies (Last Resort, 666 Park Avenue) that they didn't have the bench to replace early (nor could any early replacements have been marketed effectively). Instead of taking the rookies off the schedule early, as they did with Charlie's Angels, My Generation & The Whole Truth in recent years, they're leaving them on the schedule until they burn through their 13 episode orders (and may even get an extra episode or two like Pan Am did)

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second episode. If it weren't for hurricane Sandy, the 1.2 rating last week would have made it "certain to be canceled". As it is, I'll wait for one more week's ratings before dropping it there.

Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings it's going no lower than a "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the cancellation bear's soul.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country both had nice premiere ratings for a Friday, but were down sharply to a 1.6 and 1.7 rating in their second episodes. That's still "likely renewed" for a Friday show, but further declines threaten those predictions.

Even with full season orders for this season, ABC's mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • SJ

    666 Park Avenue (which is getting better as the ratings grow more and more abysmal, naturally) is almost certain to get one extra episode just like Pan Am did last year, simply because ABC won’t want to premiere a new show in the middle of February and have it be interrupted by the Oscars telecast a week later. Not to mention that ABC has used the Oscars as a promotional pad for new Sunday shows for years. So unless they stick a 20/20 news special in there sometime soon, 666PA gets its 14th episode (and I hope the writers give the fans some sense of finality like last year’s Pan Am).

    Last Resort has no such luck. With no interruptions/special events/award shows on Thursday nights, ABC is free to premiere something else the first week of January. And with Scandal and Nashville both getting full-season orders – and Body of Proof presumably replacing Private Practice – that is the only free time period to premiere Zero Hour and/or Mistresses (assuming that Red Widow goes to Sundays). If Mistresses gets pushed back to summer, it might get a couple more episodes, as Zero Hour only has an 8-episode order.

    On the comedy front, given that ABC just cut the episode order of Family Tools because, according to Deadline, they only need 10 episodes to air between DWTS cycles, I fully expect them to go ahead with the Tuesday comedy block. I just hope that How to Live with Your Parents at least gets a couple of showings after Modern Family (as it has three more episodes than FT). I also wouldn’t expect Happy Endings and Apartment 23 to get pulled. ABC wants that comedy block to happen and they’ll give it an entire season. My guess is, Apartment 23 gets cut afterwards, while Happy Endings gets shipped off to another network. Pretty sure Last Man and Malibu Country will get full season orders too. I guess all this also means that The Neighbors will stay in the Wednesday comedy block. Yuck! Hopefully it still gets canned in May.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    I fully expect Mistresses to take over the 10pm Sunday timeslot. The synergy with Once and Revenge would be too good to pass up. “Females dominate Sunday nights on ABC”, I can just smell the press releases cooking up already.

  • Ian

    I wonder if there is any possibility for Happy Endings to get a pick up from TBS like Cougar Town did. The show seems like it would work out fantastic there, also Sony will do ANYTHING to get there shows to 88 episodes, and this seems like a good idea to me at least. It’s a really great comedy but has awful ratings????. I know it’s a long shot and a lot of stars would have to align to make it happen, but it’s a possibility. Same with Apt 23 I think it would do great on TBS. Wishful thinking!

  • Chrisanne

    Kurt Sutter says hi.

  • Dan

    My guess by May is Apartment 23, Neighbors, Family Tools and maybe HTLWYP will be axed in May. ABC will go.d some way to save Happy Endings.

  • City Kitty

    Save Last Resort!!!! :-D

  • Brandy

    As long as Once is certain renwal,im happy though I do like Nashville too but ..

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    Well Next week I expect ABC to make a decision on 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort

    They aren’t going to come out and say that the shows are being canceled. They’ve already made their decision – they picked up Scandal and Nashville for full seasons.

  • Ultima

    @Tom
    then “production halted” cancellations are a thing of the past.

    Or the present, since it has happened three times already this season.

  • tjw

    I think people also overstimate the ratings threshold a show has to hit to get straight pulled. Charlie’s Angels and The Whole Truth both hit 1.1 before they were pulled (and in years with higher average ratings as well). The Mob Doctor may be pulling Lone Star numbers but Lone Star aired in a season where Fox’s scripted average was a full ratings point higher and the network had two shows waiting in the wings.

    While the ratings for Last Resort and 666 (along with other shows) are bad, and certainly won’t get them many more episodes, they’re still not bad enough to justify getting pulled, at least not based on the previous year’s ratigns

  • Lucazzy

    Does timeslot get taken into consideration by the network? I’d bet money that Last Resort would be a hit given that it wasn’t in the death slot.

  • John

    I really hope the ratings for Happy Endings moves up to atleast 1.8 2.0 tonight. we need to see those ratings from last year. happy Endings will bounce back. Tonight will be the night! Lets Go Happy Endings!

  • tjw

    @Lucazzy,

    The “death slot” is a myth. Unless they were going to put it on Wednesdays at 8:00, there’s not really a time slot out there (especially at 8:00) where they could protect Last Resort. And if you’re having to manipulate your schedule to protect a show, then why bother?

  • Ultima

    @Lucazzy
    Does timeslot get taken into consideration by the network? I’d bet money that Last Resort would be a hit given that it wasn’t in the death slot.

    Yes, there’s clearly lower expectations for shows airing on Friday.

    Occasionally, a network will stick with a show knowing that it is airing in a completely brutal timeslot (e.g. in 2004, CBS kept freshamn NCIS despite it only pulling 2s, because it was against Idol pulling 11s – their determination to stick with something against Idol when all of the other networks ran away was easily the second best scheduling/renewal decision they made during their rebuilding years).

    That said, ABC’s constant failures in the Thursday 8pm timeslot is not going to do any favors for Last Resort. They’ll keep putting new shows there until something works.

  • Mi

    This is a bad season for ABC. On paper, their best new dramas imo were Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue. Since they both failed, and I don’t expect neither Zero Hour nor Red Widow to do better, I think it’ll be another year when they give a pity renewal to one freshman and have another BOP situation.

    At least next year they have the S.H.I.E.L.D, that has the potentail to be the biggest hit next season..

  • One

    It’s not that crap. Last Resort WILL rally! America will come to appreciate the excellence and importance inherent in its premise! We will see to this, or we will ALL burn in the nuclear furnace!

    You’ve been warned.

  • danny94

    About time the middle had 5 smileys. I hope 666 airs all 13 episodes as i think the show is great, shame that it never found the audience.

  • Grimman

    If they plan a Life on Mars kind of ending for 666.. I can do without one! One show I always wanted an ending for was Invasion.

  • Ultima

    @Mi
    another BOP situation

    I think V should be the go to example for ABC giving out pity renewals. This frees up Body of Proof to be used as a example of ABC giving out inexplicable renewals to low rated shows. ;)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “If they plan a Life on Mars kind of ending for 666.. I can do without one! One show I always wanted an ending for was Invasion.”

    Anything’s conceivable, but the overwhelming likelihood is an abrupt ending with no “resolution”. People working on a new show are incentivised to behave as if it is going to continue forever, they have absolutely no incentive to “wrap things up”.

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