ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Are Certain To Be Canceled, Why Are They Still On The Air?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 13th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 11, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :cry: :cry: 0.58
666 Park Avenue :oops: canceled 11/16 0.64
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.64
Private Practice canceled 0.65
Last Resort :oops: canceled 11/16 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.72
Scandal :| :| :| 0.79
Malibu Country (F) :) :) :) :) 0.80
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.82
Nashville :| :| :| 0.85
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.86
The Middle
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
1.02
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.94

-
11/16 Update: Last Resort & 666 Park Avenue were canceled.
-
Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season, why are they still on the air (along with Partners, The Mob Doctor and Emily Owens)?

Robert noted that the difference in the number of shows that have been yanked off the air isn't much different than last season. Why leave the losers on the air? The best guess is that economically it no longer makes sense for the networks to stock so many "extra" replacement shows, and any replacement options work out negatively for them even vs. airing a dead show. Sticking with the losers through 13 episodes is the economically less painful decision. That fans continue with hope for those failed shows isn't surprising, but if they followed the Cancellation Bear, they might save themselves some surprises.

In ABC's case, they have one veteran drama (Private Practice), and two failed rookies (Last Resort, 666 Park Avenue) that they didn't have the bench to replace early (nor could any early replacements have been marketed effectively). Instead of taking the rookies off the schedule early, as they did with Charlie's Angels, My Generation & The Whole Truth in recent years, they're leaving them on the schedule until they burn through their 13 episode orders (and may even get an extra episode or two like Pan Am did)

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second episode. If it weren't for hurricane Sandy, the 1.2 rating last week would have made it "certain to be canceled". As it is, I'll wait for one more week's ratings before dropping it there.

Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings it's going no lower than a "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the cancellation bear's soul.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country both had nice premiere ratings for a Friday, but were down sharply to a 1.6 and 1.7 rating in their second episodes. That's still "likely renewed" for a Friday show, but further declines threaten those predictions.

Even with full season orders for this season, ABC's mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • landon

    People need to watch Last Resort! I wish it for its back 9 but that it very unlikely!

  • KJ Styles

    @Nick-Thank you! I agree whole-heartedly with every single word you wrote :)

    Glad you liked it, homie! Last Resort is the only new network show that’s any good IMO, it’s a shame that it will only see 13+ episodes. It’s a show that probably would have worked better on cable.

  • Justin121

    Nashviell and Scandal are Likely to be Renewed.

    2.0 is The New 10 pm Normal.

    Even at 1.8-1.9 they’ll be renewed (didn’t Scandal get those numbers last year?)

    Other than that, I agree with everthing on the index.

    The Neighbors is more like this year’s Body of Proof / Last Man Standing.

    (rather than being this year’s Better With You — It has a 50/50 chance of being renewed and moved to Friday or as a replacment for 2013 failed comedies. It won’t stay on Wednesday or anchor its own block).

  • mayorofsmpleton

    79 is plenty to syndicate Happy Endings and it makes it MUCH closer to the 88-100 territory required for a more profitable deal. It’s not at all unlikely they’ll push for that. They will get it there.

  • mayorofsmpleton

    Nick,
    Tell that to Scandal. It sits right after Grey’s and has trouble holding much of the audience. Grey’s won’t move to 8pm… but they SHOULD move a more established show there, like Castle. It should have happened last year.

  • Jon

    Last Resort is a good show, however Park Avenue isn’t. They both aren’t going to survive, but for very different reasons.

  • linz

    Yay for The Neighbors.. The ONLY show i watch on ABC.. im sure there are some really great ones im missing.

    If you only watched one episode of The Neighbors, give it another! Its campy.. not the usual as far as sitcoms go..

    Dont base anything on a pilot (for any show.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Last Resort had potential had they focused on the interesting part of the premise, but they blew it. It’s doomed.

    I agree with the notion that the networks don’t want to stock “replacement shows”. I think that fits in with my theory why some shows are renewed despite low ratings, such as Body of Proof – that the networks are cutting back on pilots as well and letting the “low hanging fruit” remain around longer to fill spots they really have no clue what to do with for whatever reason. It’s apparently cheaper – or safer from a corporate view at least – to stick with a low-rated multi-season show than risk a new show.

  • UncleRob

    “Malibu County” is doing well while “Last Resort” is tanking.
    SMH.
    Sometimes I think the viewing public is composed of inbred hillbillies.

  • Jake

    ABC should cancel 666 park avenue, apt. 23 and happy endings. But ABC needs to give Last Resort, Scandel & Nashville time to build an audience. All three shows have distant ratings. Why cancel before giving them a chance?
    I’m sure Castle will be renewed, no doubt.

  • Justin121

    10pm Sunday is the new 8pm Thursday for ABC.

    Should’ve moved Brothers & Sisters when they had the chance.

    The only fix for both slots would be moving a veteran, but they’re running out of options after B&S, PP, Castle, end; as newer shows (e.g. Nashville, Scandal) won’t have the strength to bear such a move.

  • Barbie

    I hope Scandal dies. It’s what Shonda deserves for neglecting of PP for six years!

  • aciel

    i want scandal to be cancelled so that troll max could just shut up and stop trashing our favorite show revenge which is in lock renewal

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    With shows like 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort certain to not have a full season of episodes ordered and therefore be functionally cancelled (except in name only). I have a question that is being proposed by the deluded (see Pan Am).

    Can anybody think of a fall show that failed to get a back 9 (give or take) but yet found themselves returning in the following fall.

    I can’t think of one and frankly doubt anybody else can.

  • Lanie Grace

    Last Resort took a torpedo when it went all “Soap Opera”. RSH is spot on the money when he said they didn’t develop the interesting part of the premise. The love triangle being setup with XO/Wife/Available-Girl is old hat and has been played out a thousand times in a hundred shows before.

    Sad to see it go but not surprised in the slightest.

  • Pablo

    There’s some fine tuning at ABC that could be done that actually could help some of its near death shows. “Last Resort” (good show if I say myself) has good DVR numbers (yes, I know that it doesn’t matter) which indicates quite a few people are interested in the show, just how to get them to watch it live. I would pull it from the Thursday lineup this week, and then start from the beginning to repeat it Tuesday at 10pm in December with new episodes starting in January (maybe a couple more episodes). Move “Private Practice” to Thursday at 7p for its last episodes. Thursdays at 8pm is a bad time to get any 18-49 demo due to “X-Files”, “Voice”, and “Big Bang Theory”. NBC’s comedies are gagging at that time. “The Vampire Diaries” is also pulling demo. It’s amazing anyone is left to watch ABC. Their best bet is to go with a demo that will go with “Grey’s”.
    ———–
    For “Happy Endings” and “The B…”, move them to Sunday at 10P. There’s no comedy against them, more mature themes, and more female demos following from “Revenge”. Put a new show in at 9p on Tuesdays.

  • Pablo

    Xifiles should have read X-Factor. Body of Proof might be an interesting entry Tuesday at 9.

  • vabeach

    Can someone explain again why reality shows aren’t tracked on the renew/cancel index? They have all the ratings info and they are usually pretty consistent, both with their respective ratings and # of episodes and airings. Personally I would love to see how Amazing Race stacks up with the rest of CBS’s lineup (just as an example). I’m sure this has been explained before but I missed it.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Can someone explain again why reality shows aren’t tracked on the renew/cancel index”

    We tried in the early days and our predictive methods simply didn’t work with unscripted shows.

  • vabeach

    Thanks for the quick response Bill. That’s too bad though, it would be interesting to see them factored in. Although I get it defeats the purpose if it doesn’t work for reality shows. Maybe one day you guys can come up with a formula that does. Until then, keep up the good work.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures