NBC: 'Guys With Kids' & 'Up All Night' Are Likely To Be Canceled, But Don't Expect Them To Be Pulled Early

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 13th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 11, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.66
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.70
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.78
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.90
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.91
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.96
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.97
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 0.97
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.03
The Office final season 1.14
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.74

-
The overriding theme of the Renew/Cancel Index posts this week is "Why are the ratings failures still on the air"? A bit more detail about that in the ABC post this week.

In NBC's case, while I'm predicting that both Up All Night and Guys With Kids are "likely canceled" I also expect both to air most or all their ordered episodes. That's 13 episodes for GwK and thirteen eleven plus a seemingly desperate addition of five multi-cam episodes for Up All Night.

At current ratings levels I'd guess that NBC makes no decision on Chicago Fire until the end of the season, where, highly dependent on spring ratings for all NBC dramas, it could still go either way. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Don Juan

    I hope at the very least guys with kids makes a complete first full season. I enjoy it and it sure looks a whole lot better then Save me.

  • Bob

    Guys with Kids is the funniest show on TV. Yep I said it and it is true. I don’t watch the Middle so I can’t say but I heard good things about it and glad that it does well for the fans. I think Guys with Kids has great potential. If NBC cared at all, it could really mold this show. Thursday at 8 would probably do pretty well. Revise the 80’s Thursday hits. You never know, but giving it a horrible lead for the run has not done it any favors although it has beat each show (Animal Practice AND 30 Rock). Don’t be greedy NBC, you killed Harry’s Law, let’s not do it again with Guys with Kids.

  • Rusty

    Whitney’s ratings haven’t even come out and GWK is likely to be cancelled, can we at least see how the show does the next few weeks before making such a bold statement?

  • Michael

    @Bill

    Up all night was picked up for 3 aditional multicam episodes not 5

  • Anthony

    Whitney’s ratings haven’t even come out and GWK is likely to be cancelled, can we at least see how the show does the next few weeks before making such a bold statement?

    A couple things. The R/C Index predicts what would happen if the season ended TODAY (not next week, or at the end of the season). So yes, based off current ratings, GWK is likely to be cancelled. But beyond that, I can’t imagine Whitney improving GWK chances that much, Whitney didn’t rate incredibly high last season, and it wouldn’t be shocking for it to come back lower (which would put it at only slightly better than GWK is performing right now).

  • Ultima

    @Jeff
    Sometime during my life I’d love to see a network just say “screw it we’re gonna cancel almost everything” and start over from scratch.

    If 2009-10, during the Lenopocalypse, NBC canceled seven of its ten dramas (two of them never even made it on the air!) as well as The Jay Leno Show which was airing five hours a week.

    During that same season, FOX canceled all of its live-action sitcoms (burning all of them off during the Sunday 7pm hour).

    In the fall of that season, ABC lauched a completely new sitcom lineup (only Scrubs and Better Off Ted remained from the previous season, but they were held as DWTS replacements and were quickly burned off).

    There’s a limit to the amount of fall programming you can effectively promote, so no one is every going to cancel everything.

  • Chris

    NBC just isn’t daring enough. What past NBC sitcoms does Guys With Kids most resemble? We’re talking Cosby show days which aired on Thursdays. But NBC isn’t daring enough to go back and do family shows on Thursdays again. They’re not even daring enough to build at least a compatible sitcom to go with Guys With Kids in the way ABC did with LMS and Malibu Country. Whitney isn’t compatible at all. Can’t see families sitting down and watching Whitney and then Guys With Kids. At least if I were still a kid I wouldn’t watch Whitney.

  • Ultima

    @Bob Saget
    By the way lovin’ the idea of a 3 month mid season break for Revolution, let’s kill the momentum for our only returning show in 2013-2014.

    Because no show could possibly maintain momentum over a long break. I mean, shows do that EVERY SUMMER, but that obviously doesn’t count. Cable shows do it all the time, but that obviously doesn’t count either, because cable viewers are smarter or something. Even broadcast shows have managed to do it (e.g., Lost), but that doesn’t count either because, um, well you get the point.

  • Ultima

    @Michael
    Up all night was picked up for 3 aditional multicam episodes not 5

    It was originally 13 single cam episodes; it is now 11 single cam and 5 multi cam episodes.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “It was originally 13 single cam episodes; it is now 11 single cam and 5 multi cam episodes.”

    Post edited to reflect those numbers.

  • pete5125

    I don’t know UAN multi-cam may work, Whitney did OK numbers last year no matter the spot, Whitney won’t be a hit but it could compete on Wed. night, I could see a Wed. with GWK/new sitcom/Whitney/UAN, NBC hasn’t found anything that worked on Wed 6 or more seasons…

    I assume that Michael J Fox show will follow Go ON on Tue

    Community/The New Normal/Parks And Rec/1600 Penn…could make Thur.

    NBC’s in rebuilding mode, even this season yet Fri at 8PM they aren’t trying anything

  • tjw

    @Ultima,

    Don’t forget 24, which took 8 months off between season 3 and 4 to go spring only and 20 months off between seasons 6 and 7 because of the writers’ strike and came back to higher ratings than the previous season’s finale both times.

  • ian

    its really sad how hard NBC is trying to save Up All Night…

  • Carlson

    Wait a minute Up All Night is becoming a multi-cam?

    If you think about it Whitney, GWK, and UAN are all Universal shows and their only chances within the next 3-5 years to establish a presence in syndication. Since most multi-cams always do well in syndication it is unlikely that they will cancel GWK at the end of the season.

  • Ultima

    @tjw
    Don’t forget 24, which took 8 months off between season 3 and 4 to go spring only and 20 months off between seasons 6 and 7 because of the writers’ strike and came back to higher ratings than the previous season’s finale both times.

    I could never forget 24, it’s my favorite drama, ever, ever!

    While the switch to the winter/spring format caused a big jump in the show’s ratings (seasons four through six were three of the four highest rated seasons, even without American Idol to boost them), the show saw massive declines between seasons six and seven (down ~25%).

  • senor chang

    GWK might have slightly better chances long-term under two conditions:

    1) NBC wants to expand their comedy lineup into multi-cam programming, maybe a block on Wednesday at 8 to counterprogram the single-cams on ABC and the reality shows on CBS/FOX.

    2) It proves to be compatible with Whitney and sees a ratings increase.

    This Wednesday is going to be a very interesting one, in any case. We get to see if the point above is valid and how much of the Voice boost Chicago Fire can retain.

    Revolution: bleeding slowly, but still NBC’s best show by a long shot.
    Go On/The New Normal: the former will make it to a second season. the latter will probably make it as well, but I don’t think it’ll stay on Tuesdays. might go on Thursdays to inject some new blood into the night.
    Parenthood: still doing great. it’ll make it to syndication.
    SVU: very odd. to be fair, it’s in a slightly harder slot, but it’s a very old show, and I don’t know how much life it has left in it. my theory is that they’ll renew it, move it to a more low-profile slot and open up an hour on Wednesdays to launch a new drama to go with Fire/whatever replaces it.
    Chicago Fire: one of their most solid chances at establishing a procedural in years. looks like a keeper for that reason, though the ratings say different.
    30 Rock/Office/UAN: dead
    Parks: one more season?
    Grimm: legit hit

  • Nick

    NBC 2013-2014 schedule:

    Mon-
    8: The Voice
    10: The Eleventh Commandment (new)

    Tue-
    8: The Voice
    9: Untitled Cee Lo Green Project (new)
    9:30: Go On
    10: Untitled Cuaron & Friedman Project (new)

    Wed-
    8: Parenthood
    9: Revolution
    10: Family Affair (new)

    Thu-
    8: Untitled Michael J. Fox project (new)
    8:30: Untitled Peter Murrieta Project (new)
    9: 1600 Penn
    9:30: The New Normal
    10: Law & Order: SVU (final season)

    Fri-
    8: Whitney
    8:30: Parks & Recreation (final season)
    9: Grimm
    10: Hench (new)

    Sat-
    8: Untitled MJF project (R)
    8:30: Untitled Cee Lo Green Project (R)
    9: Dateline NBC
    10: Law & Order: SVU (R)

    Sun- (midseason)
    7: Dateline NBC
    8: The Biggest Loser
    9:30: The Celebrity Apprentice

    Deception, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers, and Smash for midseason.

  • Evil Abed

    It’s just not NBC without Community.

  • Justin121

    Guys With Kids, Chicago Fire are *certain* renewals.

    Mark my words 8)

  • Grey SEA

    I have to agree with a few of you guys that Guys with Kids and Chicago Fire are going to comeback for sure.

    A lot of people seem to underestimate the type of difference Whitney can make on giving this block a nice boost. My only question for Whitney is when American Idol starts back in January will it go back to the levels it was at least year. Whitney needs to show some sort of growth this year and I think it will. That’s only going to help GWK even more.

    Up All Night’s decision to turn into a multi-cam is an extremely interesting one and a sign that NBC is setting up for a two-hour block next season of multi-cams. It seems like NBC wants to rejuvenate Up All Night to be in the same hour with Guys with Kids and that’s another sign that NBC will want to keep these two shows going into next season.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures