Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 11, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Animal Practice* | canceled | 0.66 |
| 30 Rock | final season | 0.66 |
| Up All Night |  |
0.70 |
| Guys With Kids | |
0.78 |
| Grimm (F) |  |
0.90 |
| Parks & Recreation |  |
0.91 |
| Chicago Fire |  |
0.96 |
| Parenthood | |
0.97 |
| Law & Order: SVU | |
0.97 |
| The New Normal | |
1.03 |
| The Office | final season | 1.14 |
| Go On | |
1.41 |
| Revolution | |
1.74 |
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The overriding theme of the Renew/Cancel Index posts this week is "Why are the ratings failures still on the air"? A bit more detail about that in the ABC post this week.
In NBC's case, while I'm predicting that both Up All Night and Guys With Kids are "likely canceled" I also expect both to air most or all their ordered episodes. That's 13 episodes for GwK and thirteen eleven plus a seemingly desperate addition of five multi-cam episodes for Up All Night.
At current ratings levels I'd guess that NBC makes no decision on Chicago Fire until the end of the season, where, highly dependent on spring ratings for all NBC dramas, it could still go either way. Read more about that here.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
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- certain to be cancelled by May, 2013 - - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.
“A lot of people seem to underestimate the type of difference Whitney can make on giving this block a nice boost. “
They underestimate a show that finished last spring with ratings of 1.2, 1.3, 1.6, 1.4, 1.4, 1.4, 1.2, 1.6?
Not much room under those numbers for under-estimation.
multicam will give Up All Night the lift it needs
Guys with kids is a great show, I will enjoy it while it lasts. I read on pazsaz.com that The New Normal has been renewed for a 2nd season. I really hope Parenthood gets renewed last nights episode was incredible, props to Monica Potter (Kristina) using her real life breast cancer experience/scare as a storyline for this season. I really don’t want Drew and Amy getting back together, but time will tell. I hope we see more of Sarah Ramos (Haddie) she did an incredible job a few weeks ago with her guest appearance.
“They underestimate a show that finished last spring with ratings of 1.2, 1.3, 1.6, 1.4, 1.4, 1.4, 1.2, 1.6?
Not much room under those numbers for under-estimation.”
I understand that but that was all against Idol. I want to see what Whitney does when its not against Idol like tonight. The only time we got a clear sample of that was the first time Whitney moved to Wednesdays and it got a 2.0, I hope nobody forgot about that rating.
“multicam will give Up All Night the lift it needs”
I honestly believe this is what Up All Night needs to get over the hump. There were a lot of people last year that stated that Up All Night was better off as a multi-cam and this gives Christina Applegate a chance to revisit her good comedic chops from Married with Children. It’ll be the perfect situation if GWK starts to grow and they have the opportunity to put GWK next to UAN next season.
I’m a big fan of NBC Comedy
People seem to underestimate GWK’s potential.
Guys With Kids got an additional 5 scripts too.
Look at NBC outside The Voice lead-outs, 30 Rock, Office, SVU.
What do they have left?
1.5-1.8 is The New Normal for NBC.
Their non-Voice successes during the last few years are Whitney and Grimm.
Grimm gets great ratings for Friday i.e. good for other days a.k.a. 1.5-1.8.
Chicago Fire, Guys With Kids, Parenthood, and Voice-lead-outs are safe for renwals. Up All Night is toss up.
NBC track record with new non-Voice-boosted successful shows is limited to Whitney, Grimm, Parenthood, Chicago Fire, and Guys With Kids.
They’re cancelling 30 Rock and The Office (and SVU probably soon). They need shows that have proven they can stand on their own, instead of overly depending on Voice-lead-outs that could collapse once they’re moved, which will lead to the network itself collapsing, again.
Does anybody know why NBC re-cancelled Fear Factor?
What is replacing THE VOICE – Tuesday?
I think The Biggest Loser filling for Voice-Monday and Fear Factor for Voice-Tuesday would have been a good strategy.
GWK has major potential I think the huge positive for the show is that its a demo player so with wider viewership numbers hopefully in the future it can turn into something special for NBC.
I like the idea of UAN and GWK together next season if they bring UAN back now that it’s a multi-cam. Maybe NBC can save New Normal the same way.
@Justin121
What is replacing THE VOICE – Tuesday?
Back-to-back epsidoes of Betty White’s Off Their Rockers are filling in for The Voice from January to March.
I’m curious on why P&R always get spared the cancellation speculations? Its ratings are just as abysmal as the rest of the NBC Thursday lineup, and it even has The Office as its lead-in.
I would have to think NBC is interested in just scrapping that entire night and reinventing it.
“I’m curious on why P&R always get spared the cancellation speculations? Its ratings are just as abysmal as the rest of the NBC Thursday lineup, and it even has The Office as its lead-in.”
Because its ratings aren’t “just as abysmal”, they are “slightly less abysmal”.
But Only because it’s in that after Office timeslot, hell even Outsourced had better numbers in that slot then P&R gets, I believe Whitney did as well. If P&R was on at 8-8:30 it would likely be getting the same numbers as 30 Rock, maybe even worse.
@Nick
Thanks.
Don’t you agree Fear Factor would’ve been a better-rated place holder than Betty White?
@Justin121
Don’t you agree Fear Factor would’ve been a better-rated place holder than Betty White?
No. However, I think Betty White’s Off Their Rockers could’ve been used better elsewhere, either leading of Wednesday or Thursday.
I agree with the comment that giving Revolution a 3 month hiatus on the first season will probably kill it’s momentum. I really don’t understand the reason. I do know most shows go on holiday hiatus but not for 3 months. It is just excessive. I hope that doesn’t kill it. I’m starting to like the show.
I’m also glad Grimm is doing good!
Guys with Kids keeps getting funnier, please save it! The new normal started well, but is increasingly annoying.
@Ixxie
I agree with the comment that giving Revolution a 3 month hiatus on the first season will probably kill it’s momentum. I really don’t understand the reason. I do know most shows go on holiday hiatus but not for 3 months. It is just excessive. I hope that doesn’t kill it. I’m starting to like the show.
The hiatus is so that Revolution doesn’t have to air without a leadin from The Voice. If Revolution only took a 2-month hiatus, rather than a 4-month, then there would be 2 months that it would have a leadin that’s lower rated than the Voice. They would also have 2 months of repeats behind The Voice, the best leadin on the network. Why would they do that?
That Revolution is currently the least likely NBC show to be cancelled amuses me. This was certainly unexpected, but I’ll take it. I honestly think NBC is taking advice from 30 Rock and trying to tank the network at this point.
How stupid to put GWK behind Animal Practice,GWK is such a awesome show,go on and the new norma are boring