CBS’s Partners was cancelled and removed from the schedule on Friday. Slightly softer exits for ABC’s 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort. Neither show got a back nine pickup, but both will get to air all of their episodes according to ABC. All three are marked “canceled” in the table below. None of them will be back next year.
Nobody who reads our site regularly should be surprised at any of those cancellations. They’d all been certain cancellations both here and in the Renew/Cancel Index for a while. In the case of the two ABC shows, they were. by wide margins the lowest-rated dramas that hadn’t already been cancelled (joining Private Practice). Similarly Partners was CBS’s lowest-rated comedy by a wide margin. Predicting those cancellations was akin to predicting that “water is wet” and “fire is hot.”
Another easy prediction: the Nielsen rage and fan campaigns that ensured in comments, e-mails, Twitter, Facebook, etc. While I’m not a believer in the fan campaigns, I’ll give them a very slight edge over Nielsen rage in terms of being worthwhile because they at least can give a person the illusion of doing something productive. Still, I was amused by the EW story that quoted a “suit” as saying it amounts to “pissing in the wind.” But I'll take that over the "antiquated system" complaints, particularly the protests that Nielsen doesn't measure DVR viewing (it does!). But advertisers only pay for commercial viewing 3 days after shows air, and advertisers don't pay when the commercials get skipped/fast-forwarded during DVR playback.
No state-of-the-art measurement system is going to convince advertisers to pay for things they're not interested in paying for. But fans and TV networks can dream!
Don't Trust The B----, Happy Endings & The Neighbors
You can debate whether I did it on purpose or merely forgot to downgrade Don't Trust The B----to certain cancellation and Happy Endings to likely cancellation thiis week. The B---- pulled some horrible, terrible, awful numbers on Tuesday, and Happy Endings wasn't much better. Though Happy Endings is in its third season, because it's first season was only 13 episodes, it's going to need more than one more season to get to the 88 episodes necessary for Mon-Fri syndication. But with Sony involved in its production, its relative ratings will have to get worse to get moved off the bubble.
As for The Neighbors, yep, I did merely forget to downgrade it to the bubble. I updated the text in the table, but the sorting and color is off. Next week...
Update: Bonus Forgetfulness
Yep, I forgot to add Whitney to the table even though it premiered on Wednesday. Because there's only one data point I'd have had it "on the bubble/too soon" this week anyway. It'll probably be there next week too since it's airing on Thanksgiving Eve...
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
--
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Nashville | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | On The Bubble, Sorry About the Sort/Color |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Bones | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final Season |
| Fringe | Fox | Final Season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
Robert,
I’m curious if there’s any way the broadcast networks can charge for viewing their programs if one watches via the Internet or tablets or even via TV? Does the FCC forbid them from charging in any way because they are supposedly free TV? If not, can they go the way of cable channels and charge the cable companies for showing their channels and then get paid for the number of cable subscribers?
I would have thought Suburgatory would be on the Bubble — its only in its 2nd season, right? So the syndication gods aren’t calling for it yet — I didn’t think its ratings were that good.
i don’t know about raising hope for certain renewal. its been under performing all season. i don’t think the rerun gods will help.
I will miss The Neighbors, The Mindy Project, and Scandal, but their ratings are pretty dire so I am prepared for all three to be cancelled. The only other broadcast network shows that I watch regularly are Grimm and Once Upon a Time so I am pleased that their renewal looks good. This is the benefit of being mostly a cable tv viewer. Apart from The Walking Dead, almost of the shows that I watch have lower ratings that are acceptable to the cable networks so they are less likely to be cancelled.
You’re missing Whitney.
…unlike the American public, who apparently weren’t.
@Danak: they already are going the the cable carriage fee route, and though that is ramping up significantly for some of the networks, but still not nearly as big as the advertising revenue.
@Melanie: you going retentionista on me? In terms of retention out of Modern Family its ratings aren’t very good, but in the absolute still plenty good enough to get renewed and a bit above average for ABC. Shows with average ratings get renewed independent of the syndication gods.
You’re missing Whitney. …unlike the American public, who apparently weren’t.
Egads, indeed I am. This week I’d have had it “on the bubble/too soon” regardless though I can’t disagree with your commentary.
If Vegas gets cancelled, it will be official: Jason O’Mara is cursed. His list of cancelled after the first season:
High Stakes
The Agency (lasted 2 seasons, but cancelled after O’Mara joined the cast for season 2)
InJustice
Men in Trees
Life on Mars
Terra Nova
Vegas would be seven, and that’s the threshold for making a curse official.
@SarahL
Those shows also have to do better than the other shows on their own network, cable or not. Cable network execs don’t keep the ones lowest on the totem pole just because they’re on cable.
@Mickey
Talk about stating the obvious which contradicted nothing that I said. You really do just write to give yourself something do.
My predictions for bubble shows:
Happy Endings ABC: Renewed somewhere, somehow
Last Man Standing ABC: Renewed for full season
Malibu Country ABC: Cancelled
Nashville ABC: Renewed for full season
Scandal ABC: Renewed as filler
CSI: NY CBS: Renewed as filler
The Good Wife CBS: Renewed for small final season
The Mentalist CBS: Renewed for full season
90210 CW: Renewed for small final season
Hart Of Dixie CW: Renewed for full season
Nikita CW: Renewed for full season
Beauty And The Beast CW: Cancelled
The Mindy Project Fox: Cancelled
Chicago Fire NBC: Cancelled
The Neighbors ABC: Cancelled
is it possible TGW|&TM to survive the bubble ?
666 and Last Resort, two great shows, get a brain, why cancel, Nelson ratings must be asleep when those shows are aired. Please do not cancel 666 and Laat Resort.
@MrFreezeDude
You seem incapable of understanding that it won’t make any difference what so ever.
Minor disagreements:
SVU: Bubble Show
Elementary: Still a Bubble Show, we have to see what spring does for it
Neighbours: Bubble Show as you said
Middle: I would put it as certain renewal but the distinction is blurry in most cases
Hart of Dixie: Likely Renewal
They just CAN’T pull the plug on TGW or TM!! They’ve been some of my favorite shows on the network.
As for the bubble shows, most of them are too hard to predict at this point, but here it goes:
Happy Endings: Renewed somewhere
Last Man Standing: Renewed for syndication potential in the long run
Malibu Country: See LMS, but it needs to stop falling, which I think it will
Nashville: canceled (if it is moved to thursdays or sundays at midseason it might be different though)
Scandal: renewed given the state of everything else at ABC
CSI: NY: I say renewed for the pairing with blue bloods
The Good Wife: renewed for a final season at fridays at 8 (might be half a season, so that undercover boss can take over after it)
The Mentalist: renewed because what else will they ship to sundays at 10? h50 will probably get 9pm, and that’s a pairing that could actually work
90210: renewed for a final season
Hart Of Dixie: this is a renewal for me, i disagree with bubble status
Nikita: renewed for syndication
Beauty And The Beast: i think it will get moved to fridays come midseason so its renewal depends on how it performs there. since they won’t want to premiere anything else there, it does not need to do brilliantly to get a renewal, so it does have a shot. still going with canceled though
The Mindy Project: canceled
Chicago Fire: it will be a tossup at the end of the season but i will go with canceled, because they have way too many dramas waiting in the wings
The CW maybe can pick up 666 Park Avenue , i mean the wb makes the show + it is based on the book of Harper which The CW has shows based on the books of harper like GG TVD TSC ecc , + 666 Park Avenue has a similar theme with Supernatural which works for the CW audience
@SarahL
I did contradict what you said. You said:
You were saying cable shows have an advantage over network shows, which they don’t. Cable networks have a smaller audience pool than broadcast networks, but within that pool there will still be floaters and sinkers. ALL shows are judged by the water level of their own network, not compared to other networks. So saying low-rated cable shows are better off than broadcast network shows doesn’t make sense. It is not safer to watch a cable than a broadcast show, they have equal chances of being cancelled according to the standards of their own network.
How is possible that M & M is likely is certain renewal and HIMYM and TAAHM are just likely renewal?.Unless CBS is looking to finish those shows,just because they’re in the 8º season and 10º season already.Looking for the ratings i don’t understand how is possible that M&M can be in better shape for renewal.