Bubble Watch: ‘666 Park Avenue,’ ‘Last Resort’ and ‘Partners’ Cancellations Spur Nielsen Rage and Fan Campaigns

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 18th, 2012

 

CBS’s Partners was cancelled and removed from the schedule on Friday. Slightly softer exits for ABC’s 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort. Neither show got a back nine pickup, but both will get to air all of their episodes according to ABC. All three are marked “canceled” in the table below. None of them will be back next year.

Nobody who reads our site regularly should be surprised at any of those cancellations. They’d all been certain cancellations both here and in the Renew/Cancel Index for a while. In the case of the two ABC shows, they were. by wide margins the lowest-rated dramas that hadn’t already been cancelled (joining Private Practice). Similarly Partners was CBS’s lowest-rated comedy by a wide margin. Predicting those cancellations was akin to predicting that “water is wet” and “fire is hot.”

Another easy prediction: the Nielsen rage and fan campaigns that ensured in comments, e-mails, Twitter, Facebook, etc. While I’m not a believer in the fan campaigns, I’ll give them a very slight edge over Nielsen rage in terms of being worthwhile because they at least can give a person the illusion of doing something productive.  Still, I was amused by the EW story that quoted a “suit” as saying it amounts to “pissing in the wind.” But I'll take that over the "antiquated system" complaints, particularly the protests that Nielsen doesn't measure DVR viewing (it does!). But advertisers only pay for commercial viewing 3 days after shows air, and advertisers don't pay when the commercials get skipped/fast-forwarded during DVR playback.

No state-of-the-art measurement system is going to convince advertisers to pay for things they're not interested in paying for. But fans and TV networks can dream!

Don't Trust The B----, Happy Endings & The Neighbors

You can debate whether I did it on purpose or merely forgot to downgrade Don't Trust The B----to certain cancellation and Happy Endings to likely cancellation thiis week.  The B---- pulled some horrible, terrible, awful numbers on Tuesday, and Happy Endings wasn't much better.  Though Happy Endings is in its third season, because it's first season was only 13 episodes, it's going to need more than one more season to get to the 88 episodes necessary for Mon-Fri syndication.  But with Sony involved in its production, its relative ratings will have to get worse to get moved off the bubble.

As for The Neighbors, yep, I did merely forget to downgrade it to the bubble. I updated the text in the table, but the sorting and color is off. Next week...

Update: Bonus Forgetfulness

Yep, I forgot to add Whitney to the table even though it premiered on Wednesday. Because there's only one data point I'd have had it "on the bubble/too soon" this week anyway. It'll probably be there next week too since it's airing on Thanksgiving Eve...

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

--

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC On The Bubble, Sorry About the Sort/Color
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Danak

    Robert,
    I’m curious if there’s any way the broadcast networks can charge for viewing their programs if one watches via the Internet or tablets or even via TV? Does the FCC forbid them from charging in any way because they are supposedly free TV? If not, can they go the way of cable channels and charge the cable companies for showing their channels and then get paid for the number of cable subscribers?

  • Melanie

    I would have thought Suburgatory would be on the Bubble — its only in its 2nd season, right? So the syndication gods aren’t calling for it yet — I didn’t think its ratings were that good.

  • DW

    i don’t know about raising hope for certain renewal. its been under performing all season. i don’t think the rerun gods will help.

  • SarahL

    I will miss The Neighbors, The Mindy Project, and Scandal, but their ratings are pretty dire so I am prepared for all three to be cancelled. The only other broadcast network shows that I watch regularly are Grimm and Once Upon a Time so I am pleased that their renewal looks good. This is the benefit of being mostly a cable tv viewer. Apart from The Walking Dead, almost of the shows that I watch have lower ratings that are acceptable to the cable networks so they are less likely to be cancelled.

  • Oliver

    You’re missing Whitney.

    …unlike the American public, who apparently weren’t.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Danak: they already are going the the cable carriage fee route, and though that is ramping up significantly for some of the networks, but still not nearly as big as the advertising revenue.

    @Melanie: you going retentionista on me? In terms of retention out of Modern Family its ratings aren’t very good, but in the absolute still plenty good enough to get renewed and a bit above average for ABC. Shows with average ratings get renewed independent of the syndication gods.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    You’re missing Whitney. …unlike the American public, who apparently weren’t.

    Egads, indeed I am. This week I’d have had it “on the bubble/too soon” regardless though I can’t disagree with your commentary.

  • Mickey

    If Vegas gets cancelled, it will be official: Jason O’Mara is cursed. His list of cancelled after the first season:

    High Stakes
    The Agency (lasted 2 seasons, but cancelled after O’Mara joined the cast for season 2)
    InJustice
    Men in Trees
    Life on Mars
    Terra Nova

    Vegas would be seven, and that’s the threshold for making a curse official.

  • Mickey

    @SarahL

    almost of the shows that I watch have lower ratings that are acceptable to the cable networks so they are less likely to be cancelled.

    Those shows also have to do better than the other shows on their own network, cable or not. Cable network execs don’t keep the ones lowest on the totem pole just because they’re on cable.

  • SarahL

    @Mickey

    Talk about stating the obvious which contradicted nothing that I said. You really do just write to give yourself something do.

  • Nick

    My predictions for bubble shows:

    Happy Endings ABC: Renewed somewhere, somehow
    Last Man Standing ABC: Renewed for full season
    Malibu Country ABC: Cancelled
    Nashville ABC: Renewed for full season
    Scandal ABC: Renewed as filler
    CSI: NY CBS: Renewed as filler
    The Good Wife CBS: Renewed for small final season
    The Mentalist CBS: Renewed for full season
    90210 CW: Renewed for small final season
    Hart Of Dixie CW: Renewed for full season
    Nikita CW: Renewed for full season
    Beauty And The Beast CW: Cancelled
    The Mindy Project Fox: Cancelled
    Chicago Fire NBC: Cancelled
    The Neighbors ABC: Cancelled

  • jo

    is it possible TGW|&TM to survive the bubble ?

  • Deborah P

    666 and Last Resort, two great shows, get a brain, why cancel, Nelson ratings must be asleep when those shows are aired. Please do not cancel 666 and Laat Resort.

  • The End

    @MrFreezeDude

    You seem incapable of understanding that it won’t make any difference what so ever.

  • omabin

    Minor disagreements:
    SVU: Bubble Show
    Elementary: Still a Bubble Show, we have to see what spring does for it
    Neighbours: Bubble Show as you said
    Middle: I would put it as certain renewal but the distinction is blurry in most cases
    Hart of Dixie: Likely Renewal

  • Ashen

    They just CAN’T pull the plug on TGW or TM!! They’ve been some of my favorite shows on the network.

  • omabin

    As for the bubble shows, most of them are too hard to predict at this point, but here it goes:
    Happy Endings: Renewed somewhere
    Last Man Standing: Renewed for syndication potential in the long run
    Malibu Country: See LMS, but it needs to stop falling, which I think it will
    Nashville: canceled (if it is moved to thursdays or sundays at midseason it might be different though)
    Scandal: renewed given the state of everything else at ABC
    CSI: NY: I say renewed for the pairing with blue bloods
    The Good Wife: renewed for a final season at fridays at 8 (might be half a season, so that undercover boss can take over after it)
    The Mentalist: renewed because what else will they ship to sundays at 10? h50 will probably get 9pm, and that’s a pairing that could actually work
    90210: renewed for a final season
    Hart Of Dixie: this is a renewal for me, i disagree with bubble status
    Nikita: renewed for syndication
    Beauty And The Beast: i think it will get moved to fridays come midseason so its renewal depends on how it performs there. since they won’t want to premiere anything else there, it does not need to do brilliantly to get a renewal, so it does have a shot. still going with canceled though
    The Mindy Project: canceled
    Chicago Fire: it will be a tossup at the end of the season but i will go with canceled, because they have way too many dramas waiting in the wings

  • enes

    The CW maybe can pick up 666 Park Avenue , i mean the wb makes the show + it is based on the book of Harper which The CW has shows based on the books of harper like GG TVD TSC ecc , + 666 Park Avenue has a similar theme with Supernatural which works for the CW audience

  • Mickey

    @SarahL

    Talk about stating the obvious which contradicted nothing that I said. You really do just write to give yourself something do.

    I did contradict what you said. You said:

    This is the benefit of being mostly a cable tv viewer. Apart from The Walking Dead, almost of the shows that I watch have lower ratings that are acceptable to the cable networks so they are less likely to be cancelled.

    You were saying cable shows have an advantage over network shows, which they don’t. Cable networks have a smaller audience pool than broadcast networks, but within that pool there will still be floaters and sinkers. ALL shows are judged by the water level of their own network, not compared to other networks. So saying low-rated cable shows are better off than broadcast network shows doesn’t make sense. It is not safer to watch a cable than a broadcast show, they have equal chances of being cancelled according to the standards of their own network.

  • gustavo

    How is possible that M & M is likely is certain renewal and HIMYM and TAAHM are just likely renewal?.Unless CBS is looking to finish those shows,just because they’re in the 8º season and 10º season already.Looking for the ratings i don’t understand how is possible that M&M can be in better shape for renewal.

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