Bubble Watch: ‘666 Park Avenue,’ ‘Last Resort’ and ‘Partners’ Cancellations Spur Nielsen Rage and Fan Campaigns

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 18th, 2012

 

CBS’s Partners was cancelled and removed from the schedule on Friday. Slightly softer exits for ABC’s 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort. Neither show got a back nine pickup, but both will get to air all of their episodes according to ABC. All three are marked “canceled” in the table below. None of them will be back next year.

Nobody who reads our site regularly should be surprised at any of those cancellations. They’d all been certain cancellations both here and in the Renew/Cancel Index for a while. In the case of the two ABC shows, they were. by wide margins the lowest-rated dramas that hadn’t already been cancelled (joining Private Practice). Similarly Partners was CBS’s lowest-rated comedy by a wide margin. Predicting those cancellations was akin to predicting that “water is wet” and “fire is hot.”

Another easy prediction: the Nielsen rage and fan campaigns that ensured in comments, e-mails, Twitter, Facebook, etc. While I’m not a believer in the fan campaigns, I’ll give them a very slight edge over Nielsen rage in terms of being worthwhile because they at least can give a person the illusion of doing something productive.  Still, I was amused by the EW story that quoted a “suit” as saying it amounts to “pissing in the wind.” But I'll take that over the "antiquated system" complaints, particularly the protests that Nielsen doesn't measure DVR viewing (it does!). But advertisers only pay for commercial viewing 3 days after shows air, and advertisers don't pay when the commercials get skipped/fast-forwarded during DVR playback.

No state-of-the-art measurement system is going to convince advertisers to pay for things they're not interested in paying for. But fans and TV networks can dream!

Don't Trust The B----, Happy Endings & The Neighbors

You can debate whether I did it on purpose or merely forgot to downgrade Don't Trust The B----to certain cancellation and Happy Endings to likely cancellation thiis week.  The B---- pulled some horrible, terrible, awful numbers on Tuesday, and Happy Endings wasn't much better.  Though Happy Endings is in its third season, because it's first season was only 13 episodes, it's going to need more than one more season to get to the 88 episodes necessary for Mon-Fri syndication.  But with Sony involved in its production, its relative ratings will have to get worse to get moved off the bubble.

As for The Neighbors, yep, I did merely forget to downgrade it to the bubble. I updated the text in the table, but the sorting and color is off. Next week...

Update: Bonus Forgetfulness

Yep, I forgot to add Whitney to the table even though it premiered on Wednesday. Because there's only one data point I'd have had it "on the bubble/too soon" this week anyway. It'll probably be there next week too since it's airing on Thanksgiving Eve...

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

--

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC On The Bubble, Sorry About the Sort/Color
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Davis

    @enes

    I highly doubt that the CW will pick up 666.

    @Robert

    Do you know a bubble status for Survivor, The Amazing Race, ect?

  • The End

    Bill or Robert, no idea how you stand on spamming but MrFreezeDude has spammed the above comment at least 6 times already. Twice on this topic alone, several times on the other one.

  • Justin121

    A.B.C.:

    Happy Ending, Last Man, Malibu, Scandal, Nashville: Renewed.

    The Neighbors: Cancelled.

    N.B.C.:

    Chicago Fire, Guys with Kids: Renewed.

    C.B.S.:

    The Good Wife: Renewed.

    CSI: NY, The Mentalist: BUBBLE.

    FOX:

    Mindy renewed, Ben & Kate cancelled.

    CW:

    90210, Dixie, Nikita, Beast: All Renewed. Owens canned.

  • The End

    @Davis

    Amazing Race is in no danger. Officially the next season began filming a few days ago.

  • The End

    Correction, MrFreezedude has spammed this topic 5 times with the same comment, and at least 6 on the other one. Getting kinda annoying now.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Now that Last Resort is gone, the only show of interest on the Bubble Watch for me is Beauty and the Beast. Nikita is a likely renewal for syndication reasons.

    I think it’s too early to tell about BATB. The ratings this past week indicated a continued drop. My guess is it will level out around .4-.5 – which might be OK if it’s moved to Friday. But with the (reasonable) success of Arrow, the CW might just cancel it on that level. I think it will depend on the pilots they see for next season. So I suspect it will stay on the bubble for the rest of its season.

    Everything else I watch is looking good.

  • Sel

    Jesus, I don’t see why is FOX pushing so hard with this “Mindy project”, I’ve watched every single episode so far and didn’t saw comedy at all.On the other hand they have “Ben&Kate” which is absolutely hilarious, but unfortunately is getting an axe any day soon.Stupid FOX and stupid Mindy!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Correction, MrFreezedude has spammed this topic 5 times with the same comment, and at least 6 on the other one. Getting kinda annoying now.”

    Comment spamming is to be discouraged. I have done what I can.

  • Ryan

    Are “Red Widow” and “Zero Hour” going to take the available time slots on ABC then? I’m really looking forward to watching “Zero Hour”, but if ABC decides to put it up against CBS’s Thursday comedy block, I’m pretty sure they will kill it.

  • Big Toe

    Can you please move The Neighbors to the bubble section without the color problem? Thanks!

  • Networkman

    @Melanie, I totally agree with you. Suburgatory should be on the bubble. I feel it is doing poorly behind ABC’s highest rated comedy. And can’t imagine how low the numbers would go if it were in a different timeslot. The Middle should be listed as certain renewal.

    What I really dislike about all the importance given to the demo is that just because a show is mostly watched by the all important desired demo does not mean it will have a large amount of viewers. So there could be a show that gets a 2.4 but only 4-5 million viewers weekly watching. And the network will considered that show to be more of a success than a show that gets 1.6 but garners 11 million viewers. I think that is crazy. But the network would be more willing to keep the show that is not popular with the masses. And then people wonder why Broadcast TV is losing more viewers year after year.

  • SarahL

    @Mickey

    Blah, blah, blah… Typical. You have nothing of substance to contribute. You write and comment on other people’s posts just to give yourself something to do.

  • Lane

    @SarahL

    I find it a little weird that you’re singling out Mickey as someone who has nothing of substance to contribute, as if everyone else posts amazing insights.

  • rob60990

    “And can’t imagine how low the numbers would go if it were in a different timeslot.”

    It aired after The Middle last year and usually held almost all of its demo audience. I must say it is surprising that Suburgatory is not doing that good after Modern Family. ABC needs to move this show back to 8:30 as it’s a better fit for The Middle ratings wise.

  • a p garcia

    The only cancelled show that should be uncancelled is Last Resort. I think some military hater executive at ABC got their wish. I hope it is picked up by some other network. To me it is too good of a show to be let go.

  • Rob R

    I dont quite understand how anyone would feel “outrage” about the cancellation of three shows that no one had ever seen just seven weeks ago. Does seven weeks really create such emotional devotion to a television program? Maybe I would understand, “That’s a bummer. I liked that show.” But a fan campaign?? I dont get it.

  • POIFanatic

    a p garcia: I’m sure you think the atrocious writing had nothing to do with viewers ditching the show. I liked it, but if you think it was great tv, your opinion is invalid.

  • POIFanatic

    Sarah: “This is the benefit of being mostly a cable tv viewer. Apart from The Walking Dead, almost of the shows that I watch have lower ratings that are acceptable to the cable networks so they are less likely to be cancelled.”

    Talk about a hypocrite. Do you know about a cable show called ‘Common Law’? It got cancelled. Just because you didn’t watch it doesn’t mean it didn’t have its own passionate fanbase (I didn’t watch). They were hurt by its cancellation. That’s the same case with the shows that you or any of us love, but were cancelled on networks or cable. There’s absolutely no difference when it comes to renewing a show. It competes with shows on its own channel and not others.

  • s0303

    i agree with everything except hart of dixie should be on likely renewal…it’s doing as well as batb without a lead in and more consistent…and will be half way to syndication after this year…

  • POIFanatic

    I called you a hypocrite for singling out Mickey when he/she was absolutely right and your judgement was clouded.

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