Bubble Watch: ‘666 Park Avenue,’ ‘Last Resort’ and ‘Partners’ Cancellations Spur Nielsen Rage and Fan Campaigns

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 18th, 2012

 

CBS’s Partners was cancelled and removed from the schedule on Friday. Slightly softer exits for ABC’s 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort. Neither show got a back nine pickup, but both will get to air all of their episodes according to ABC. All three are marked “canceled” in the table below. None of them will be back next year.

Nobody who reads our site regularly should be surprised at any of those cancellations. They’d all been certain cancellations both here and in the Renew/Cancel Index for a while. In the case of the two ABC shows, they were. by wide margins the lowest-rated dramas that hadn’t already been cancelled (joining Private Practice). Similarly Partners was CBS’s lowest-rated comedy by a wide margin. Predicting those cancellations was akin to predicting that “water is wet” and “fire is hot.”

Another easy prediction: the Nielsen rage and fan campaigns that ensured in comments, e-mails, Twitter, Facebook, etc. While I’m not a believer in the fan campaigns, I’ll give them a very slight edge over Nielsen rage in terms of being worthwhile because they at least can give a person the illusion of doing something productive.  Still, I was amused by the EW story that quoted a “suit” as saying it amounts to “pissing in the wind.” But I'll take that over the "antiquated system" complaints, particularly the protests that Nielsen doesn't measure DVR viewing (it does!). But advertisers only pay for commercial viewing 3 days after shows air, and advertisers don't pay when the commercials get skipped/fast-forwarded during DVR playback.

No state-of-the-art measurement system is going to convince advertisers to pay for things they're not interested in paying for. But fans and TV networks can dream!

Don't Trust The B----, Happy Endings & The Neighbors

You can debate whether I did it on purpose or merely forgot to downgrade Don't Trust The B----to certain cancellation and Happy Endings to likely cancellation thiis week.  The B---- pulled some horrible, terrible, awful numbers on Tuesday, and Happy Endings wasn't much better.  Though Happy Endings is in its third season, because it's first season was only 13 episodes, it's going to need more than one more season to get to the 88 episodes necessary for Mon-Fri syndication.  But with Sony involved in its production, its relative ratings will have to get worse to get moved off the bubble.

As for The Neighbors, yep, I did merely forget to downgrade it to the bubble. I updated the text in the table, but the sorting and color is off. Next week...

Update: Bonus Forgetfulness

Yep, I forgot to add Whitney to the table even though it premiered on Wednesday. Because there's only one data point I'd have had it "on the bubble/too soon" this week anyway. It'll probably be there next week too since it's airing on Thanksgiving Eve...

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC On The Bubble, Sorry About the Sort/Color
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • r0ckmypants

    @iowegian – Happy Endings actually aired at 10:00 & 10:30 in its first season, and then was renewed for a second (and now third) season. I wouldn’t say the ratings for those episodes were at all good, and I was very surprised when it got a second season pick-up… but there you go.

  • John A

    Castle would die Thursday at 8pm. Its doing ok where it is.

  • John A

    HOD is getting double what Nikita is in US Ratings. Of course Vincent/Bondoel is picking on it.

  • r0ckmypants

    @Vincent – Do you have those figures available? Can you point me to your sources which specify that Nikita’s international sales offset its costs enough to cover for the fact that its domestic ratings are awful?

    Of course not, because these things don’t exist. People like Brandy and myself aren’t “selfish” because we’re questioning Nikita’s future, we’re “realistic.”

  • iowegian

    I asked about successful sitcoms at 10pm. A pity renewal does make it a hit.

    I’m wondering about a real hit sitcom at that time.

  • John A

    And HOD dont have a lead in unlike Nikita lost have Antm lead in. Not that a 3rd season show should need a lead in anyway.

  • John A

    @rockmypants Of course Vincent dont have proof its nonsense that Nikita fans make up.

  • rob60990

    @r0ckmypants, don’t expect any sources. Bondoel makes stuff up, we’re use to it. :D

    how many different names can 1 person come up with?

  • Anthony

    it has always been ridiculous that ratings are measured this way. (hmmm let’s measure a shows success by the number of houses that must have a little box that most people don’t even know about.) Talk about a small sample.

    I shutter to think how many shows have been put down, that were actually popular by ALL of it’s watchers. It’s like the electoral college for cryin out loud.

    Why do they do it this way? (That is not rhetorical, I’m actually asking.)

    Here is a link that helps explain the reasoning behind the system. But the short of it is, that both networks and advertisers are willing to accept the numbers neilsen provides as accurate (or close enough) and are not willing to pay anymore money for making the numbers for accurate.

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/numbers-102/

  • vcoolwater

    @John A

    Just because HOD doesn’t have a lead in doesn’t make it a shoo-in for renewal. I have been told CW cares about their show’s international viewership.

    If Hart of Dixie is not making money internationally plus CW has a strong pilot season. HOD will be cancelled. Also I don’t see the show doing so well in syndication since the show seems to be a niche.

    Hart of Dixie ratings need to be stronger.

  • John A

    Vincent/Bondoel been banned yet again? LOL

  • Debsafan

    I really like Last Resort and 666 is OK. Better than a lot of shows that’s on TV. I just hope they end these show with and ending and not leave them up in the air. Some people did watch these shows and deserve an end to the story.

  • John A

    I know Dixie is doing bad. But Nikita is doing worse. And Nikita aint doing well abroad. Its doing average at best.

  • John A

    Anyway unless Nikita gets 0.2 in the 8pm slot it will get renewed for SYNDICATION not INTERNATIONAL SALES.

  • Brandy

    Vccoolwater,Hart is stable like last season,returned up and was renewed at the same ratings.If it does better this spring than Nikita,Cult,Carrie Diaries, and Beauty if not 90210 too,its quite possible and likley to be renewed d.Yes CW cares about international sales(Ringer and SC were cancelledor poor perfermance there)but also online(Deadline reported Dixie did well here &another reason Ringer &SC were cancelled_poor online performance). Anyway,im not sure how Hart does internatinally,but I think John As point about leadins is that season Hart grew out of its while Nikita failed to in season and now.

  • Potato

    Does anyone know if 666 and Last Resort are done shooting? So if they can patch on proper conclusions? I’m guessing 666 isn’t because of the damage done to the sets by Sandy

  • Tyson

    iowegian, NBC used sitcoms at 10 and 10:30 on Thursdays in 2011. Outsourced’s numbers went from the right side of the bubble to the wrong side after moving to 10:30.

    Can’t help you in regard to the last hit sitcom at 10. Not even cable has any “hits” with comedies at that hour.

  • ZmaX

    Since people constantly bring up Nikita’s international sales into the discussion, I decided to actually search for articles that mention it and I found 2 instances from Deadline.

    May 17,2011 (Nikita’s season 2 renewal) “Additionally, because of its great brand recognition, Nikita has been netting solid international sales. ”

    May 11,2012 (Nikita’s Season 3 renewal)”and Nikita is a big international seller for the CW’s sister studio Warner Bros TV.”

    I’m assuming that Deadline is a relatively reliable source, but there aren’t any linked sources that I’ve seen that have actual data for Nikita’s International sales.

  • Tom

    I’ve noticed that the threads inevitably turn to a discussion about what’s happening on the CW. The answer is: nothing worth discussing. Three CW programs have a vestige of ratings that might keep them afloat on cable. They could possibly do even better once disassociated from the CWs low rent image. The rest wouldn’t last a minute on any broadcast network. So, having a discussion about where to slot these shows is pointless. You may think they’re terrific, but comparatively few viewers would agree. I’m waiting to see if the CW picks up the LA Complex again this summer. That would confirm the CW as a quick buck operation that’s indifferent to attracting viewers. But, in the meantime, try not to worry about the best time to slot Nikita. None exists.

  • vcoolwater

    @Brandy

    The fact that Hart of Dixie ratings are stable might hurt it. The ratings for the show are mediocre. Seeing no growth, CW might chuck it. Plus if CW has a strong pilot season, HOD will be even in more trouble.

    The show is properly labeled as a toss up. Too many unknown facts determining if the show will be renewed or not.

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