Bubble Watch: ‘666 Park Avenue,’ ‘Last Resort’ and ‘Partners’ Cancellations Spur Nielsen Rage and Fan Campaigns

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 18th, 2012

 

CBS’s Partners was cancelled and removed from the schedule on Friday. Slightly softer exits for ABC’s 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort. Neither show got a back nine pickup, but both will get to air all of their episodes according to ABC. All three are marked “canceled” in the table below. None of them will be back next year.

Nobody who reads our site regularly should be surprised at any of those cancellations. They’d all been certain cancellations both here and in the Renew/Cancel Index for a while. In the case of the two ABC shows, they were. by wide margins the lowest-rated dramas that hadn’t already been cancelled (joining Private Practice). Similarly Partners was CBS’s lowest-rated comedy by a wide margin. Predicting those cancellations was akin to predicting that “water is wet” and “fire is hot.”

Another easy prediction: the Nielsen rage and fan campaigns that ensured in comments, e-mails, Twitter, Facebook, etc. While I’m not a believer in the fan campaigns, I’ll give them a very slight edge over Nielsen rage in terms of being worthwhile because they at least can give a person the illusion of doing something productive.  Still, I was amused by the EW story that quoted a “suit” as saying it amounts to “pissing in the wind.” But I'll take that over the "antiquated system" complaints, particularly the protests that Nielsen doesn't measure DVR viewing (it does!). But advertisers only pay for commercial viewing 3 days after shows air, and advertisers don't pay when the commercials get skipped/fast-forwarded during DVR playback.

No state-of-the-art measurement system is going to convince advertisers to pay for things they're not interested in paying for. But fans and TV networks can dream!

Don't Trust The B----, Happy Endings & The Neighbors

You can debate whether I did it on purpose or merely forgot to downgrade Don't Trust The B----to certain cancellation and Happy Endings to likely cancellation thiis week.  The B---- pulled some horrible, terrible, awful numbers on Tuesday, and Happy Endings wasn't much better.  Though Happy Endings is in its third season, because it's first season was only 13 episodes, it's going to need more than one more season to get to the 88 episodes necessary for Mon-Fri syndication.  But with Sony involved in its production, its relative ratings will have to get worse to get moved off the bubble.

As for The Neighbors, yep, I did merely forget to downgrade it to the bubble. I updated the text in the table, but the sorting and color is off. Next week...

Update: Bonus Forgetfulness

Yep, I forgot to add Whitney to the table even though it premiered on Wednesday. Because there's only one data point I'd have had it "on the bubble/too soon" this week anyway. It'll probably be there next week too since it's airing on Thanksgiving Eve...

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC On The Bubble, Sorry About the Sort/Color
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Kavyn

    @vcoolwater IMO HOD is likely renewal. Normally I’d agree being stable at a 0.6 isn’t great, it’s still beating out a big chunk of CW shows and I imagine it’s keeping the OTH fans around. It’s also probably really easy to syndicate, they can just sell to the same people buying OTH, 90210 and Gossip Girl.

  • Barbie

    I think CBS is giving CSI:NY a 10th season. The pairing with Blue Bloods is perfect, and it brings them nearly 10 million people on Friday nights.

    And Chicago Fire draws nearly as many viewers as SVU. I don’t see why they’d cancel it just as easily.

  • Mark3

    BIG MISTAKE ABC FOR CANCELING 666!!!!.

  • Jason

    @Robert,

    Why is H50 “Likely Renewal” and Blue Bloods “Certain Renewal”? BB has more total viewers but the H50 demo is much better, and I thought the demo is what mattered. *confused*

  • Nick

    @Doug

    Suburgatory’s […] doing worse than it did last fall post The Middle.

    Every show on broadcast TV is down from last year, with the exception of about 5 shows, none of which are on ABC. If you add in the fact that Suburgatory’s timeslot move was announced late and not promoted as much as other returning shows, it’s not doing thay poorly.

    Were I ABC, I would […] get rid of Neighbors, but alas, it’s already renewed.

    Read. The. Freaking. Article.

  • Nick

    @Kavyn

    Wouldn’t it be smart for the CW to buy 666PA from ABC if it were cheap enough?

    Currently, 666 is getting a 1.2 out of Revenge’s 2.4, yes? That’s 50% retention.
    You want 666 to follow Supernatural, right? OK. Factoring in year-to-year losses, (it’s impossible for such a plan to happen before next fall) SPN would be at around 0.7. If you factor in the confusion of moving to another channel, the highest 666 could get is 0.3. Now factor in y-t-y declines, it won’t be getting over 0.2. And it could always flop and get 0.1 or 0.0. Why on earth would the CW want that?

  • Nick

    @Jason

    Why is H50 “Likely Renewal” and Blue Bloods “Certain Renewal”? BB has more total viewers but the H50 demo is much better, and I thought the demo is what mattered. *confused*

    It has nothing to do with total viewers, relax. Hawaii Five-0 simply has higher standards than Blue Bloods. H50 has a leadin that gets 2.9 and is on a Monday, and Blue Bloods has a lead in that gets 1.5 and is on a Friday. H50 should be doung much better but it is not.
    Personally, I think both should be certain renewal because they’re both within 1 season of syndiation. I’m just showing you Robert’s reasoning.

  • Doug

    @Nick – Oh, get over yourself. I’ve been following this stuff for over 15 years now, so stuff your condescension.

    Suburgatory has almost double the lead-in that it had last season, but is doing worse in the ratings. It doesn’t matter that almost everything is down. Suburgatory is getting extra exposure and thus should be up. Ever watch Modern Family and see the countdown clock to the next show at the end of the episode? Or any of ABC’s shows? They’re not doing that for their entertainment.

    Lead-ins still DO matter. ABC clearly expected it to pop, and so did I. Suburgatory is doing worse with a much better lead-in, which likely means that it’s not sticking in that timeslot long-term unless it starts to rise off of last week’s 2.4.

    As for Neighbors, as I commented in the VERY NEXT SENTENCE, it’s already renewed. Later on the same page I commented that it will not be likely to return next season, just as Better With You did not a few years ago.

    Your analysis of 666 getting a 0.2 on the CW because it holds only 50% of
    Revenge’s audience is specious at best. It could very well hold all of its audience if it moved to the CW, but we’ll never know because it is never going to happen. The UPN and the WB used to pick up big 4 cast-offs every once in a while (The Hughleys, Sabrina and Brotherly Love being three examples, but there are others). As far as I remember, they typically lost 60% of their audience during the move, but the mini nets only ever picked up sitcoms, not dramas.

    Makes no difference now – the CW has a different pricing structure than the big-4 and probably could not afford a show like 666 even if they wanted it. Which they don’t.

  • Kavyn

    It’s highly unlikely 666PA would follow SPN since SPN’s always at 9pm (and apparently has to be? Not sure about that part but that’s what I heard). I’m with Doug I think it would do much better considering Revenge and 666PA have practically nothing in common (would have been a much better pair with OUAT at 9pm).

    But yes, I agree that it’s not likely to happen at all. I was just playing with the thought :)

  • ronnie

    My favourite thrillers of all time: (1)Ringer (2)Pretty Little Liars (3)Revenge (4) Desperate Housewives .all those who havent seen Ringer yet I can guarantee u that u will love it.its first season is available for streaming on Netflix.I know it is cancelled now but its first season pretty much gives us answers to the intriguing mysteries of the story arcs.watch it.u can thank me later.

  • Emily

    Oh please, no CW fan will watch 666PA if it was aired on CW. No pretty boys or beautiful girls, cast too old.

  • Dina

    Love love love 666 Park Avenue…please do not cancel!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  • Justin121

    @ronnie

    Best thrillers of all time:

    1) LOST
    2) Prison Break (season 1)
    3) THE GOOD WIFE
    4) REVENGE
    5) Pretty Little Liars
    6) Heroes (season 1)
    7) Damages (season 1)

    24, Ringer, not so much.
    Desperate Housewives is bettert han most of these but isn’t a thriller.
    Grey’s Anatomy was quitet hrilling for about 2 seasons.
    Haven’t seen Breaking Bad and others.

  • James

    DAMM YOU ABC for cancelling Last Resort. ‘Nuff said. Jerks!

  • Philip2

    Question(s) regarding H5O: Is it necessary for a show to reach 88 episodes/4 seasons when a syndication deal has already been agreed upon? Do the syndication rights holders contractually insist on a certain number of episodes? Do we even know the wording of those deals?

    Even if three seasons and less than 88 episodes of H5O were enough, I’d be quite surprised to see it canceled. $2+ million per episode from TNT should be more than enough to offset lower advertising revenues and justify H5O’s renewal.

    With a syndication deal like that, a show easily goes from likely to be canceled to (almost) certain to be renewed.

  • Joe

    I’m an avid tv viewer without a tv…I rely on hulu and online streaming (only own a computer). Does Neilson take into account online streams? I’m forced to watch commercials!

  • Holly

    @Joe,

    I’m an avid tv viewer without a tv…I rely on hulu and online streaming (only own a computer). Does Neilson take into account online streams? I’m forced to watch commercials!

    While Nielsen is working on adding online viewing, the networks do have the numbers for all legal online viewing.

    Even when Nielsen does get online viewing as part of their numbers, they will be separate numbers not included in the regular TV numbers. Why? Two primary reasons. One, ad loads are different. You see ads on hulu, but not nearly as many as on TV and they are different than the ones on TV. Advertisers who only have ads on the TV broadcast aren’t interested in paying for those who watch someone else’s ads online and vice versa. Second, advertising rates for online viewing are much, much lower than TV broadcast. So advertisers want to know who’s watching where, not an aggregate number.

    Also, while things are changing, online viewing still makes up a very small percentage of total viewing.

  • Brian

    GOOD RIDDANCE TO THOSE SHOWS!

  • Dan B

    I’m clueless on all this stuff. I don’t understand how Vegas, as the #1 new show is likely for cancellation, while Elementary is likely for renewal. Don’t get me wrong – I lost interest in Vegas after 3 weeks and think Elementary is awesome. I just don’t get it.

  • Holly

    @Dan B,

    Ad rates are set primarily based on the 18-49 demo rating. Vegas has been doing very poor in that rating (lowest non-Friday show on CBS) so it is a likely candidate for cancellation. Elementary hasn’t been setting any records, but it’s doing decently in the demo, so it is more likely to be renewed.

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