Bubble Watch: ‘666 Park Avenue,’ ‘Last Resort’ and ‘Partners’ Cancellations Spur Nielsen Rage and Fan Campaigns

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 18th, 2012

 

CBS’s Partners was cancelled and removed from the schedule on Friday. Slightly softer exits for ABC’s 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort. Neither show got a back nine pickup, but both will get to air all of their episodes according to ABC. All three are marked “canceled” in the table below. None of them will be back next year.

Nobody who reads our site regularly should be surprised at any of those cancellations. They’d all been certain cancellations both here and in the Renew/Cancel Index for a while. In the case of the two ABC shows, they were. by wide margins the lowest-rated dramas that hadn’t already been cancelled (joining Private Practice). Similarly Partners was CBS’s lowest-rated comedy by a wide margin. Predicting those cancellations was akin to predicting that “water is wet” and “fire is hot.”

Another easy prediction: the Nielsen rage and fan campaigns that ensured in comments, e-mails, Twitter, Facebook, etc. While I’m not a believer in the fan campaigns, I’ll give them a very slight edge over Nielsen rage in terms of being worthwhile because they at least can give a person the illusion of doing something productive.  Still, I was amused by the EW story that quoted a “suit” as saying it amounts to “pissing in the wind.” But I'll take that over the "antiquated system" complaints, particularly the protests that Nielsen doesn't measure DVR viewing (it does!). But advertisers only pay for commercial viewing 3 days after shows air, and advertisers don't pay when the commercials get skipped/fast-forwarded during DVR playback.

No state-of-the-art measurement system is going to convince advertisers to pay for things they're not interested in paying for. But fans and TV networks can dream!

Don't Trust The B----, Happy Endings & The Neighbors

You can debate whether I did it on purpose or merely forgot to downgrade Don't Trust The B----to certain cancellation and Happy Endings to likely cancellation thiis week.  The B---- pulled some horrible, terrible, awful numbers on Tuesday, and Happy Endings wasn't much better.  Though Happy Endings is in its third season, because it's first season was only 13 episodes, it's going to need more than one more season to get to the 88 episodes necessary for Mon-Fri syndication.  But with Sony involved in its production, its relative ratings will have to get worse to get moved off the bubble.

As for The Neighbors, yep, I did merely forget to downgrade it to the bubble. I updated the text in the table, but the sorting and color is off. Next week...

Update: Bonus Forgetfulness

Yep, I forgot to add Whitney to the table even though it premiered on Wednesday. Because there's only one data point I'd have had it "on the bubble/too soon" this week anyway. It'll probably be there next week too since it's airing on Thanksgiving Eve...

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

--

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC On The Bubble, Sorry About the Sort/Color
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
  • Jon

    It’s very simple if a show isn’t gaining any rating traction it will be cancelled. Why should anyone be surprised park and last resort are cancelled. I was quite surprised they weren’t pulled from the schedule immediately. Instead they are being allowed to play out their 13

  • Nick

    @Doug

    Lead-ins still DO matter. ABC clearly expected it to pop, and so did I. Suburgatory is doing worse with a much better lead-in, which likely means that it’s not sticking in that timeslot long-term unless it starts to rise off of last week’s 2.4.

    I never said it was staying there long-term. I expect it to be moved next year. I just don’t think it’s doing as terribly as you say. Also, why are you fixating on that 2.4? Before that, it has been in the mid to high 2s. Who says that isn’t just a fluke?

    As for Neighbors, as I commented in the VERY NEXT SENTENCE, it’s already renewed. Later on the same page I commented that it will not be likely to return next season, just as Better With You did not a few years ago.

    You just said that it was renewed, then that it likely won’t return this season. Which one do you really mean?

    Your analysis of 666 getting a 0.2 on the CW because it holds only 50% of
    Revenge’s audience is specious at best

    I assume you looked into your magical crystal ball, yes?

    It could very well hold all of its audience if it moved to the CW

    Yeah, and pigs could very well fly.

  • herpderp

    666PA sets were flooded and destroyed, and the ratings didn’t justify the cost of rebuilding them. That’s why it was cancelled. Moving it to CW is ridiculous on so many levels.

  • Kavyn

    They’re still airing the 13 episodes which implies they are rebuilding the set.

  • Adam Decker

    So I notice that you don’t keep track of reality shows. I don’t know if you should or not, but I can’t seem to find any information regarding them on this site at least.

  • The End

    @Bill Gorman

    Thanks for dealing with him Bill. I found his spamming quite irritating, mostly as I made the effort to explain to him in detail why posting the same ‘like the show on facebook blah blah’ spam won’t achieve anything, and he simply ignored and continued. I saw you tried too on the other thread as well as other people and he kept posting the same message over and over.

  • The End

    @herpderp

    Actually we all saw the ratings dropped to such a level that renewing the show would be an exercise in futility. It’s just one of those things, the show simply wasn’t popular. The flooding didn’t help matters, but the ratings didn’t either.

    When you look at Once Upon a Time and Revenge doing incredibly well, and then 666 Park Avenue losing a huge amount of viewers from the lead in you know the show simply doesn’t have a future.

  • Nick

    @Adam Decker

    TVBTN does not keep track of the renewal/cancelaation chances of realities as much as scripted.

    If you are wondering how your show is doing, every single reality on the broadcast networks that is currently airing is a safe bet for renewal, except for Kitchen Nightmares. KN is the only bubble show.

  • Edward

    Bummer about Last Resort. It is a good show and Andre Braugher is terrific as always. Cancel Last Resort and Toddlers in Tiaras live on. Well done America! Next thing you know we will nominate Mitt Romney for President?!

  • MATT

    where is two and a half men? canceled or renwed for a eleventh season

  • FlorianN

    I really don’t understand why you put Suburgatory in “Likely Renewal”, it’s certain to be renewed, even if the retention on Modern Family isn’t that great, it has never been great for ABC and Suburgatory succeeded where all the others failed. Plus, Modern Family and Suburgatory are the most powerfull comedies on ABC.. it doesn’t make any sense to put Suburgatory here, because it’s certain to be renewed.

    Also, Apt 23 and Ben & Kate are certain to be canceled by May..

  • FlorianN

    I’m sorry, I didn’t see what you wrote about Apt 23, my bad. :)

  • WR

    It’s an antiquated system because of the way they do their sampling. Not like that’s never been an issue brought up by people before.

    I would say they should probably factor in people that watch online as well, since even when I watch live, I don’t watch commercials, but when I watch online, I do, because they’re like 15 seconds.

    I understand dismissing the gobs of angry fans, but it doesn’t change the fact that relying on one statistically questionable system to make decisions over millions of dollars is iffy at best.

  • joe

    why not cancel big brother and dancing with the stars both shows are
    worthless waste of time

  • Cerise

    I REALLY HATE TO SEE A SHOW LIKE 666 PARK AVENUE GET CANNCELLED. IT IS MY FAVORITE SHOW ON TV RIGHT NOW. I KNOW IT AIRS ON A PRIME SPOT BUT WHY CAN’T IT JUST BE MOVED TO A DIFFERENT DAY AND TIME? ALSO, WHERE IS THIS WEEKS SHOW?

  • Nick

    @MATT

    where is two and a half men? canceled or renwed for a eleventh season

    The chart says that Two and a Half Men is “Likely to be Renewed”

    @joe

    why not cancel big brother and dancing with the stars both shows are
    worthless waste of time

    Why would you cancel a TV show that give you heaping piles of money?

    @Cerise

    ALSO, WHERE IS THIS WEEKS SHOW?

    666 Park Avenue was preempted this week, along with all of ABC that aired after 8 pm on Sunday, so that they could show the American Music Awards. It will be back next week.

  • Holly

    @joe,

    why not cancel big brother and dancing with the stars both shows are
    worthless waste of time

    In addition to Nick’s answer, Big Brother airs during the summer and fills 3 hours a week. Its existence has no bearing on the decision to cancel Partners. In fact, even if they did cancel BB, that wouldn’t save Partners, which was cancelled to make room for Friend Me (or whatever their midseason comedy is) and because it had horrible ratings.

  • Robert

    It’s a shame Last Resort wasn’t on Showtime with Homeland. Homeland is getting better every week and the same with Last Resort… the Love Boat with mercenaries…now who has the Captain’s firing key? BTW, did ABC think Last Resort would be a success like Lost? Airplane vs. Submarine. If it was in a 10 p.m. slot on Thursday, Last Resort would be a hit show!!! Lost worked better after 9 p.m. I hope they can wrap up the show with an oh-wow ending.

  • John

    @Robert: Don’t you EVER compare the LR dreck to the brilliant Homeland. Have you actually watched the show or simply praising it just like that! Its just a mediocre show with tons of flaws and no real characters.

  • Baaa!

    @rob60990-Suburgatory may have been a better fit ratings wise in the 8:30 slot, but its a much better fit content wise in the 9:30 slot. Sub’s content is geared more teen/adult humor than TM or MF. Love it now that i can watch it live as the kids are in bed. Its drop may just be the sophmore slump, but its doing okay considering the downward slide of ratings in general this season. An improving NBC is spreading the drops around this season.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures