CBS’s Partners was cancelled and removed from the schedule on Friday. Slightly softer exits for ABC’s 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort. Neither show got a back nine pickup, but both will get to air all of their episodes according to ABC. All three are marked “canceled” in the table below. None of them will be back next year.
Nobody who reads our site regularly should be surprised at any of those cancellations. They’d all been certain cancellations both here and in the Renew/Cancel Index for a while. In the case of the two ABC shows, they were. by wide margins the lowest-rated dramas that hadn’t already been cancelled (joining Private Practice). Similarly Partners was CBS’s lowest-rated comedy by a wide margin. Predicting those cancellations was akin to predicting that “water is wet” and “fire is hot.”
Another easy prediction: the Nielsen rage and fan campaigns that ensured in comments, e-mails, Twitter, Facebook, etc. While I’m not a believer in the fan campaigns, I’ll give them a very slight edge over Nielsen rage in terms of being worthwhile because they at least can give a person the illusion of doing something productive. Still, I was amused by the EW story that quoted a “suit” as saying it amounts to “pissing in the wind.” But I'll take that over the "antiquated system" complaints, particularly the protests that Nielsen doesn't measure DVR viewing (it does!). But advertisers only pay for commercial viewing 3 days after shows air, and advertisers don't pay when the commercials get skipped/fast-forwarded during DVR playback.
No state-of-the-art measurement system is going to convince advertisers to pay for things they're not interested in paying for. But fans and TV networks can dream!
Don't Trust The B----, Happy Endings & The Neighbors
You can debate whether I did it on purpose or merely forgot to downgrade Don't Trust The B----to certain cancellation and Happy Endings to likely cancellation thiis week. The B---- pulled some horrible, terrible, awful numbers on Tuesday, and Happy Endings wasn't much better. Though Happy Endings is in its third season, because it's first season was only 13 episodes, it's going to need more than one more season to get to the 88 episodes necessary for Mon-Fri syndication. But with Sony involved in its production, its relative ratings will have to get worse to get moved off the bubble.
As for The Neighbors, yep, I did merely forget to downgrade it to the bubble. I updated the text in the table, but the sorting and color is off. Next week...
Update: Bonus Forgetfulness
Yep, I forgot to add Whitney to the table even though it premiered on Wednesday. Because there's only one data point I'd have had it "on the bubble/too soon" this week anyway. It'll probably be there next week too since it's airing on Thanksgiving Eve...
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
--
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Nashville | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | On The Bubble, Sorry About the Sort/Color |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Bones | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final Season |
| Fringe | Fox | Final Season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
@Dan B,
Ad rates are set primarily based on the 18-49 demo rating. Vegas has been doing very poor in that rating (lowest non-Friday show on CBS) so it is a likely candidate for cancellation. Elementary hasn’t been setting any records, but it’s doing decently in the demo, so it is more likely to be renewed.
It’s very simple if a show isn’t gaining any rating traction it will be cancelled. Why should anyone be surprised park and last resort are cancelled. I was quite surprised they weren’t pulled from the schedule immediately. Instead they are being allowed to play out their 13
@Doug
Lead-ins still DO matter. ABC clearly expected it to pop, and so did I. Suburgatory is doing worse with a much better lead-in, which likely means that it’s not sticking in that timeslot long-term unless it starts to rise off of last week’s 2.4.
I never said it was staying there long-term. I expect it to be moved next year. I just don’t think it’s doing as terribly as you say. Also, why are you fixating on that 2.4? Before that, it has been in the mid to high 2s. Who says that isn’t just a fluke?
As for Neighbors, as I commented in the VERY NEXT SENTENCE, it’s already renewed. Later on the same page I commented that it will not be likely to return next season, just as Better With You did not a few years ago.
You just said that it was renewed, then that it likely won’t return this season. Which one do you really mean?
Your analysis of 666 getting a 0.2 on the CW because it holds only 50% of
Revenge’s audience is specious at best
I assume you looked into your magical crystal ball, yes?
It could very well hold all of its audience if it moved to the CW
Yeah, and pigs could very well fly.
666PA sets were flooded and destroyed, and the ratings didn’t justify the cost of rebuilding them. That’s why it was cancelled. Moving it to CW is ridiculous on so many levels.
They’re still airing the 13 episodes which implies they are rebuilding the set.
So I notice that you don’t keep track of reality shows. I don’t know if you should or not, but I can’t seem to find any information regarding them on this site at least.
@Bill Gorman
Thanks for dealing with him Bill. I found his spamming quite irritating, mostly as I made the effort to explain to him in detail why posting the same ‘like the show on facebook blah blah’ spam won’t achieve anything, and he simply ignored and continued. I saw you tried too on the other thread as well as other people and he kept posting the same message over and over.
@herpderp
Actually we all saw the ratings dropped to such a level that renewing the show would be an exercise in futility. It’s just one of those things, the show simply wasn’t popular. The flooding didn’t help matters, but the ratings didn’t either.
When you look at Once Upon a Time and Revenge doing incredibly well, and then 666 Park Avenue losing a huge amount of viewers from the lead in you know the show simply doesn’t have a future.
@Adam Decker
TVBTN does not keep track of the renewal/cancelaation chances of realities as much as scripted.
If you are wondering how your show is doing, every single reality on the broadcast networks that is currently airing is a safe bet for renewal, except for Kitchen Nightmares. KN is the only bubble show.
Bummer about Last Resort. It is a good show and Andre Braugher is terrific as always. Cancel Last Resort and Toddlers in Tiaras live on. Well done America! Next thing you know we will nominate Mitt Romney for President?!
where is two and a half men? canceled or renwed for a eleventh season
I really don’t understand why you put Suburgatory in “Likely Renewal”, it’s certain to be renewed, even if the retention on Modern Family isn’t that great, it has never been great for ABC and Suburgatory succeeded where all the others failed. Plus, Modern Family and Suburgatory are the most powerfull comedies on ABC.. it doesn’t make any sense to put Suburgatory here, because it’s certain to be renewed.
Also, Apt 23 and Ben & Kate are certain to be canceled by May..
I’m sorry, I didn’t see what you wrote about Apt 23, my bad.
It’s an antiquated system because of the way they do their sampling. Not like that’s never been an issue brought up by people before.
I would say they should probably factor in people that watch online as well, since even when I watch live, I don’t watch commercials, but when I watch online, I do, because they’re like 15 seconds.
I understand dismissing the gobs of angry fans, but it doesn’t change the fact that relying on one statistically questionable system to make decisions over millions of dollars is iffy at best.
why not cancel big brother and dancing with the stars both shows are
worthless waste of time
I REALLY HATE TO SEE A SHOW LIKE 666 PARK AVENUE GET CANNCELLED. IT IS MY FAVORITE SHOW ON TV RIGHT NOW. I KNOW IT AIRS ON A PRIME SPOT BUT WHY CAN’T IT JUST BE MOVED TO A DIFFERENT DAY AND TIME? ALSO, WHERE IS THIS WEEKS SHOW?
@MATT
where is two and a half men? canceled or renwed for a eleventh season
The chart says that Two and a Half Men is “Likely to be Renewed”
@joe
why not cancel big brother and dancing with the stars both shows are
worthless waste of time
Why would you cancel a TV show that give you heaping piles of money?
@Cerise
ALSO, WHERE IS THIS WEEKS SHOW?
666 Park Avenue was preempted this week, along with all of ABC that aired after 8 pm on Sunday, so that they could show the American Music Awards. It will be back next week.
@joe,
why not cancel big brother and dancing with the stars both shows are
worthless waste of time
In addition to Nick’s answer, Big Brother airs during the summer and fills 3 hours a week. Its existence has no bearing on the decision to cancel Partners. In fact, even if they did cancel BB, that wouldn’t save Partners, which was cancelled to make room for Friend Me (or whatever their midseason comedy is) and because it had horrible ratings.
It’s a shame Last Resort wasn’t on Showtime with Homeland. Homeland is getting better every week and the same with Last Resort… the Love Boat with mercenaries…now who has the Captain’s firing key? BTW, did ABC think Last Resort would be a success like Lost? Airplane vs. Submarine. If it was in a 10 p.m. slot on Thursday, Last Resort would be a hit show!!! Lost worked better after 9 p.m. I hope they can wrap up the show with an oh-wow ending.
@Robert: Don’t you EVER compare the LR dreck to the brilliant Homeland. Have you actually watched the show or simply praising it just like that! Its just a mediocre show with tons of flaws and no real characters.